• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제34권11B호
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• pp.1200-1206
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 유비쿼터스 센서네트워크(USN, Ubiquitous Sensor Network) 환경을 위한 에너지 효율적 상황인 식 매체접근제어(MAC, Medium Access Control) 프로토콜을 제안한다. 제안한 CASMAC(Context Aware Sensor MAC)은 상황정보를 이용하여 에너지 효율적으로 동작한다. CASMAC의 동작원리는 사전에 예측 가능한 상황을 시나리오로 작성하여 설정한 상황정보를 서버에 저장하며, 특정 센서 노드에서 이벤트가 발생할 경우, 그 이후부터 3회의 샘플 데이터를 서버로 전송한다. 서버는 전송 받은 샘플 데이터를 기 설정된 상황정보에 따라 처리한다. 만약 샘플 데이터가 이벤트로 처리되면, 서버는 해당 노드로 지속적인 데이터 전송 요청 신호를 보내 데이터를 전송 받고, 데이터 전송을 더이상 원하지 않으면 데이터 전송 중지 요청 신호를 보낸다. 또한 이벤트가 아니라고 처리할 경우에는, 무응답을 통해 샘플 데이터를 무효 처리한다. CASMAC의 성능 분석을 위해, 에너지 소모 테이블을 작성하여 에너지 소모 모델을 도출하였고, 모의 실험을 수행하였다. 그 결과 SMAC 대비 약 5.7 퍼센트의 에너지 소모 감소를 통한 성능 개선 효과를 얻었다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.93-100
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• 2004

We have investigated characteristic solar wind dynamics associated with relativistic electron events at geosynchronous orbit. Most of the events for April, 1999 through December, 2002 are found to be accompanied by a prolonged solar quiet period which is characterized as low solar wind density, weak interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and fast alfvenic fluctuations in IMF $B_z$. In a typical relativistic event, electron fluxes begin to increase by orders of magnitude when solar wind parameters drop to low values (e.g., $n_{sw}∼5 cm^{-3}$ and ｜$B_{IMF}$∼5 nT) after sharp peaks. Then the elevated electron fluxes stay at the high level during the solar quiet period. This observation may suggest the following scenario for the occurrence of a geosynchronous relativistic event: (ⅰ) Quiet solar winds can yield a stable and more dipole-like magnetospheric configurations in which the geosynchronous orbit locates well inside the trapping boundary of the energetic electrons. (ⅱ) If a large population of MeV electrons are generated (by whatever acceleration process(es)) in the inner magnetosphere, they can be trapped and effectively accumulated to a high intensity. (ⅲ) The high electron flux can persist for a number of days in the geosynchronous region as long as the solar wind dynamics stays quiet. Therefore the scenario indicates that the occurrence of a relativistic event would be a result of a delicate balance between the effects of electron acceleration and loss. In addition, the sensitive dependence of a relativistic event on the solar wind conditions makes the prediction of solar wind variability as important as understanding of electron acceleration processes in the forecast of a relativistic event.

• 한국조리학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.32-45
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• 2004

This study is about choice attribution of customers make in food and beverage events. The researcher provided practical plans to uplift food-related enterprises and activate management through surveys and positive analyses, targeting customers who use food services. First of all, all event plans must include customer demands, social changes, special qualities of the business, and market research. Second, low demand season must be customers will be induced to the events. Third, prediction for market variable and solutions must be thoroughly examined and plans should look into the future to maintain a long period of time. Fourth, sufficient communication between planners and employees should be made before the event starts, so that food and beverage businesses can gain trust and quality of event services.Fifth, immaterial service and visible goods/menus in business of food and beverage events must be closely matched. Sixth, menus introducing a variety of merchandise, quality of nutrition and health of the business should be developed. Also, events from countries(regions) should be hold to create a market of cultural exchange. Seventh, for hereafter event plans, feedbacks are needed concerning customers needs and demands through customer care, after the food and beverage events. Eight, faculty management for convenience, kindness, safety, and life preserver accommodations in parking areas must be made, as automobiles are necessaries for people in Mycar era. The ninth, off-line and on-line care through on-line business construction and production of homepage must be done, due to the fact that even the well-made events are bound to fail if they are not delivered to the customers.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.158-167
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• 2016

본 연구는 실시간 자료를 기반으로 k-NN을 활용한 단기 교통상황 예측 시 각 단계별 세부절차 및 변수결정, 입력자료 구축 등의 각 단계별 잠재적 예측오차에 대한 원인분석 및 시사점 도출을 목적으로 한다. 다양한 단기 예측모형에 대한 선행연구 검토를 통하여 k-NN 모형의 유용성을 검토하였고 이에 대한 적용가능성을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 k-NN 모형은 이력자료 평활화 및 패턴DB 구축의 입력자료 부분, 실시간 자료와 과거 이력자료와의 유사성 측정 및 k 근접이웃 결정 등의 k-NN 알고리즘 부분, 그리고 예측 시간간격에 따른 출력결과 부분 등으로 구성되며 올림픽대로 김포방향 한강대교 남단~여의상류IC 구간을 대상으로 분석을 실시하였다. 교통자료의 불규칙 잡음으로 인하여 정확한 패턴매칭을 위해서 이력자료의 평활화를 실시하였으며, 이력자료 패턴 DB는 일반 및 이벤트 상황으로 구분하여 활용하였다. 최적의 시계열 자료 및 k 근접이웃 결정을 위해서 시행착오 방법을 적용하였으며, 단기 교통상황 예측 시 예측 시간간격이 증가할수록 예측오차가 증가하는 패턴, 그리고 교통상태가 급변하는 시점에서도 예측오차가 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구의 k-NN 모형에 대한 각 단계별 예측오차에 대한 원인을 분석하여 개선방향을 제시함으로써 향후 신뢰성 있는 단기 교통상황예측 정보제공 및 시스템에 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제28권8호
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• pp.59-66
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• 2023

골든크로스를 흔히 매수의 신호로 인식하지만, 주식시장은 변동성이 매우 크기에 골든크로스만으로 주식의 등락 여부를 예상하고 의사결정을 내리기에는 무리가 있다. 마찬가지로, 이러한 주가 데이터의 불확실성은 기존의 시계열 기반의 예측을 더욱 어렵게 한다. 본 논문에서는 골든크로스를 하나의 사건으로 인식하여, time-invariant 한 접근을 시도하고자 한다. LSTM 신경망 기법을 사용하여 골든크로스 이후의 주가 변화율을 예측하고, 기존의 시계열 분석에서 도출한 성능과 종목별로 비교한다. 또한, 0을 기준으로 한 주가 변화율의 등락을 혼동행렬로 분류하여 일반화 분류 성능을 입증한다. 최종적으로 본 논문은 예측 정밀도가 83%인 모델을 제안하였다. 골든크로스가 나타날 때 모든 상황에서 매수를 결정하기보다 모델을 활용하여 투자자의 투자 자본 손실을 방지할 수 있다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.101-111
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• 2023

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the VKOSPI index on short-term stock returns after a large-scale stock price shock of individual stocks of firms in the distribution industry in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology: This study investigates the effect of the change of the VKOSPI index or investor mood on abnormal returns after the event date from January 2004 to July 2022. The significance of the abnormal return, which is obtained by subtracting the rate of return estimated by the market model from the rate of actual return on each trading day after the event date, is determined based on T-test and multifactor regression analysis. Results: In Korea's distribution industry, the simultaneous occurrence of a bad investor mood and a large stock price decline, leads to stock price reversals. Conversely, the simultaneous occurrence of a good investor mood and a large-scale stock price rise leads to stock price drifts. We found that the VKOSPI index has strong explanatory power for these reversals and drifts even after considering both company-specific and event-specific factors. Conclusions: In Korea's distribution industry-related stock market, investors show an asymmetrical behavioral characteristic of overreacting to negative moods and underreacting to positive moods.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권4호
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• pp.1571-1584
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• 2023

In this study, a numerical analysis was performed as part of an international joint research project to reproduce a real cable tray fire that occurred in the heater bay area of the turbine building of a nuclear power plant. A sensitivity analysis was performed on various input parameters to derive results consistent with the sprinkler activation time obtained from the fire event analysis. For all sensitive parameters, the normalized sprinkler activation time correlated well with the power function of the normalized sprinkler height. A correlation equation was developed to identify the sprinkler activation time at any location when determining the slope or fire growth rate under the conditions assuming a linear or t-squared heat release rate (HRR) time curve. Various cable fire growth assumptions were used to determine which assumption was better to provide the prediction coincident with the information given from the fire event analysis in terms of the sprinkler activation time and total energy generated from cables damaged by fire. In the comprehensive analysis of all the sensitive parameters, the standard deviation of the input parameters increased as the sprinkler height decreased. Within the range of the sensitivity parameter values given in this study, when considering all sprinkler heights, the standard deviation of the cable model change was the largest and that of the overhang position change was the smallest.

• Environmental Sciences Bulletin of The Korean Environmental Sciences Society
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.29-36
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• 1998

An instantaneous unit sediment graph (IUSG) model is investigated for prediction of sediment yield from an upland watershed in Northwestern Mississippi. Sediment yields are predicted by convolving source runoff with an IUSG. The IUSG is the distribution of sediment from an instantaneous burst of rainfall producing one unit of runoff. The IUSG, defined as a product of the sediment concentration distribution (SCD) and the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH), is known to depend on the characteristics of the effective rainfall. The IUH is derived by the Nash model for each event. The SCD is assumed to be an exponential function for each event and its parameters were correlated with the effective rainfall characteristics. A sediment routing function, based on travel time and sediment particle size, is used to predict the SCD.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.343-353
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• 2016

In doubly-censored data, an originating event time and a terminating event time are interval-censored. In certain analyses of such data, a researcher might be interested in the elapsed time between the originating and terminating events as well as regression modeling with risk factors. Therefore, in this study, we introduce a model evaluation method to measure the predictive ability of a model based on negative predictive values. We use a semiparametric estimate of the predictive accuracy to provide a simple and flexible method for model evaluation of doubly-censored survival outcomes. Additionally, we used simulation studies and tested data from a prostate cancer trial to illustrate the practical advantages of our approach. We believe that this method could be widely used to build prediction models or nomograms.