• Title/Summary/Keyword: estimation

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Time-Series Analysis and Estimation of Prospect Emissions and Prospected Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Chungbuk (온실가스 배출량 시계열 분석과 전망 배출량 및 감축 감재량 추정 - 충북을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Okjin;Moon, Yun Seob;Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2022
  • In accordance with the enactment of 'the Paris Agreement' in 2015 and 'the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Response to the Climate Crisis' in 2021, each local government has set appropriate reduction target of greenhouse gas to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC, the reduction target of 40% compared to 2018) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. In this study, the current distribution of GHG emissions was analyzed in a time series centered on the Chungbuk region for the period from 1990 to 2018, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions in Chungbuk by 2030 based on the 2030 NDC and scenario. In addition, the prospected reduction by 2030 was estimated considering the projected emissions according to Busines As Usual in order to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions. Our results showed that GHG emissions in Chungbuk and Korea have been increasing since 1990 owing to population and economic growth. GHG emissions in 2018 in Chungbuk were very low (3.9 %) relative to the national value. Moreover, emissions from fuel combustion, such as cement and lime production, manufacturing and construction industries, and transportation industries, were the main sources. Furthermore, the 2030 target of GHG emission reduction in Chungbuk was set at 40.2% relative to the 2018 value, in accordance with the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon-zero national scenario. Therefore, when projected emissions were considered, the prospected reduction to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions was estimated to be 46.8% relative to 2018. The above results highlight the importance of meeting the prospected reduction of GHG emissions through reduction means in each sector to achieve the national and local GHG reduction target. In addition, to achieve the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon zero, the country and each local government, including Chungbuk, need to estimate projected emissions by year, determine reduction targets and prospect reductions every year, and prepare specific means to reduce GHG emissions.

Estimation of Monthly Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Inventory in the Southeastern Yellow Sea (황해 남동부 해역의 월별 용존무기탄소 재고 추정)

  • KIM, SO-YUN;LEE, TONGSUP
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.194-210
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    • 2022
  • The monthly inventory of dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and its fluxes were simulated using a box-model for the southeastern Yellow Sea, bordering the northern East China Sea. The monthly CT data was constructed by combining the observed data representing four seasons with the data adopted from the recent publications. A 2-box-model of the surface and deep layers was used, assuming that the annual CT inventory was at the steady state and its fluctuations due to the advection in the surface box were negligible. Results of the simulation point out that the monthly CT inventory variation between the surface and deep box was driven primarily by the mixing flux due to the variation of the mixed layer depth, on the scale of -40~35 mol C m-2 month-1. The air to sea CO2 flux was about 2 mol C m-2 yr-1 and was lower than 1/100 of the mixing flux. The biological pump flux estimated magnitude, in the range of 4-5 mol C m-2 yr-1, is about half the in situ measurement value reported. The CT inventory of the water column was maximum in April, when mixing by cooling ceases, and decreases slightly throughout the stratified period. Therefore, the total CT inventory is larger in the stratified period than that of the mixing period. In order to maintain a steady state, 18 mol C m-2 yr-1 (= 216 g C m-2 yr-1), the difference between the maximum and minimum monthly CT inventory, should be transported out to the East China Sea. Extrapolating this flux over the entire southern Yellow Sea boundary yields 4 × 109 g C yr-1. Conceptually this flux is equivalent to the proposed continental shelf pump. Since this flux must go through the vast shelf area of the East China Sea before it joins the open Pacific waters the actual contribution as a continental shelf pump would be significantly lower than reported value. Although errors accompanied the simple box model simulation imposed by the paucity of data and assumptions are considerably large, nevertheless it was possible to constrain the relative contribution among the major fluxes and their range that caused the CT inventory variations, and was able to suggest recommendations for the future studies.

Analysis of Spatial Characteristics of Vacant House in Consideration of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) - Focused on the Old Downtowns of Busan Metropolitan City - (공간단위 수정가능성 문제(MAUP)를 고려한 빈집 발생지역의 특성 분석 - 부산광역시 원도심 일대를 대상으로 -)

  • SEOL, Yu-Jeong;KIM, Ji-Yun;KIM, Ho-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.120-132
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the rapid increase in vacant houses in urban areas has caused various problems such as worsening urban landscape, causing safety accidents, crime accidents, and hygiene problems. According to the Statistics Korea Future Population Estimation results, the growth rate of Korean population and households is expected to continue to decrease, which is likely to lead to an increase in the occurrence of vacant houses. If the problem caused by the occurrence of vacant houses is neglected, it causes not only a physical decline such as a deterioration of the residential environment but also a social and economic decline. In order to solve this problem, it is necessary to grasp the spatial distribution characteristics of vacant houses at the local level considering the existence of regional characteristics and spatial influence. Therefore, in this study, in order to measure global spatial autocorrelation, the analysis was conducted centering on the old downtown area of Busan, where there are many vacant houses through Moran's I and Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR). In addition, the distribution of vacant houses in different spatial units in Eup_Myeon_Dong and Census was analyzed to evaluate the possibility of Modifiable Areal Unit Problem(MAUP), which differ in the results of spatial analysis as the spatial analysis units change. As a result of the analysis, the occurrence of vacant houses by Eup_Myeon_Dong in the old downtown area of Busan had spatial heterogeneity, and the spatial analysis results of vacant houses were different as the spatial analysis units were different. Accordingly, in order to understand the exact distribution characteristics of vacant house occurrence, spatial dimensions using the GWR model should be considered, and it is suggested that consideration of the MAUP is necessary.

Analysis of Determinants of Carbon Emissions Considering the Electricity Trade Situation of Connected Countries and the Introduction of the Carbon Emission Trading System in Europe (유럽 내 탄소배출권거래제 도입에 따른 연결계통국가들의 전력교역 상황을 고려한 탄소배출량 결정요인분석)

  • Yoon, Kyungsoo;Hong, Won Jun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.165-204
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    • 2022
  • This study organized data from 2000 to 2014 for 20 grid-connected countries in Europe and analyzed the determinants of carbon emissions through the panel GLS method considering the problem of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. At the same time, the effect of introducing ETS was considered by dividing the sample period as of 2005 when the European emission trading system was introduced. Carbon emissions from individual countries were used as dependent variables, and proportion of generation by each source, power self-sufficiency ratio of neighboring countries, power production from resource-holding countries, concentration of power sources, total energy consumption per capita in the industrial sector, tax of electricity, net electricity export per capita, and size of national territory per capita. According to the estimation results, the proportion of nuclear power and renewable energy generation, concentration of power sources, and size of the national territory area per capita had a negative (-) effect on carbon emissions both before and after 2005. On the other hand, the proportion of coal power generation, the power supply and demand rate of neighboring countries, the power production of resource-holding countries, and the total energy consumption per capita in the industrial sector were found to have a positive (+) effect on carbon emissions. In addition, the proportion of gas generation had a negative (-) effect on carbon emissions, and tax of electricity were found to have a positive (+) effect. However, all of these were only significant before 2005. It was found that net electricity export per capita had a negative (-) effect on carbon emissions only after 2005. The results of this study suggest macroscopic strategies to reduce carbon emissions to green growth, suggesting mid- to long-term power mix optimization measures considering the electricity trade market and their role.

Forward Osmotic Pressure-Free (△𝜋≤0) Reverse Osmosis and Osmotic Pressure Approximation of Concentrated NaCl Solutions (정삼투-무삼투압차(△𝜋≤0) 법 역삼투 해수 담수화 및 고농도 NaCl 용액의 삼투압 근사식)

  • Chang, Ho Nam;Choi, Kyung-Rok;Jung, Kwonsu;Park, Gwon Woo;Kim, Yeu-Chun;Suh, Charles;Kim, Nakjong;Kim, Do Hyun;Kim, Beom Su;Kim, Han Min;Chang, Yoon-Seok;Kim, Nam Uk;Kim, In Ho;Kim, Kunwoo;Lee, Habit;Qiang, Fei
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.235-252
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    • 2022
  • Forward osmotic pressure-free reverse osmosis (Δ𝜋=0 RO) was invented in 2013. The first patent (US 9,950,297 B2) was registered on April 18, 2018. The "Osmotic Pressure of Concentrated Solutions" in JACS (1908) by G.N. Lewis of MIT was used for the estimation. The Chang's RO system differs from conventional RO (C-RO) in that two-chamber system of osmotic pressure equalizer and a low-pressure RO system while C-RO is based on a single chamber. Chang claimed that all aqueous solutions, including salt water, regardless of its osmotic pressure can be separated into water and salt. The second patent (US 10.953.367B2, March 23, 2021) showed that a low-pressure reverse osmosis is possible for 3.0% input at Δ𝜋 of 10 to 12 bar. Singularity ZERO reverse osmosis from his third patent (Korea patent 10-22322755, US-PCT/KR202003595) for a 3.0% NaCl input, 50% more water recovery, use of 1/3 RO membrane area, and 1/5th of theoretical energy. These numbers come from Chang's laboratory experiments and theoretical analysis. Relative residence time (RRT) of feed and OE chambers makes Δ𝜋 to zero or negative by recycling enriched feed flow. The construction cost by S-ZERO was estimated to be around 50~60% of the current RO system.

A Study on Improvement Methods of Cost Estimation in Order for the Proper Management of Street Trees (도시 가로수 관리 품셈 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Do, Yoon-Taek;Han, Bong-Ho;Park, Seok-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.20-36
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to provide basic data for high-quality street tree management by setting reasonable management items and appropriate unit prices by reviewing the adequacy of current street tree management. Currently, street tree management items, except for street tree pruning, use general landscape tree quantity per unit for the street tree management quantity per unit. KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) applied pruning items from standard electric production infrastructure and carried out the activities at an average unit price of 51% lower for heavy pruning and 39% lower for light pruning than the standard estimate. This was judged to be a level that could not maintain or increase the quality of street tree management. It was determined that an appropriate standard unit price for street tree management was necessary. To improve the quantity per unit for the proper management of street trees, it was necessary to review costs in the field. However, due to the absence of data on actual construction costs in the domestic landscape field, detailed items of the US RSMeans Building Construction Cost Data (RSMeans) were reviewed, and the actual construction costs were calculated by applying personal domestic expenses. As a result, the standard of the estimated unit showed a good ratio of 107% for heavy pruning of street tree pruning compared to the actual construction cost, but light pruning was underestimated with a 59% ratio. Shrub pruning was 82%, weeding was 92%, tree fertilization was 87%, and windbreak wall installation was 91% under-engineered. In addition, it was also confirmed that the watering by sprinkler trucks and chemical spraying were over-designed compared to the actual construction cost at the rates of 118% and 124%, respectively. Due to the specificity of the street trees, the increase in personal expenses and the input cost of equipment, such as road safety controls, were judged to be the main cause of the underestimation of items. Therefore, it is necessary to add items related to street trees and general landscape trees to the landscape maintenance items of the standard of the estimated unit.

Ecological Characteristics of Korean Dark Sleeper, Odontobutis interrupta in Geumdang Stream, Korea (금당천에 서식하는 얼록동사리(Odontobutis interrupta)의 생태 특징)

  • Hwa-Keun Byeon
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.86-93
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    • 2023
  • This study investigated the ecological characteristics of Odontobutis interrupta at the Geumdang Stream from January to December 2021. The riverbed structure of the species habitat was rich in sand and mud. The water was deep, ranging from 21 to 124 cm, with an average of 48 cm. The stream velocity was slow at 0.24 (0.08-0.36) m/sec. The ratio of females to males was 1:0.98, and the total length of collected individuals ranged from 23 mm to 162 mm. The age according to the total length-frequency distribution as of May indicated that the group with a total length of 23-59 mm was one year old, the group with 60-99 mm was two years old, the group with 100-139 mm was three years old, and the group with 140-162 mm was four years old. As a secondary gender characteristic, the females genital papilla had a cylindrical shape, a hollow inside of the tip, and a longer diameter than males. The males had a cone shape with a pointed end. Sexually mature males had the nuptial color, with a black abdomen and whole body. Some females with a length ranging from 60 to 69 mm and all females 70 mm longer were sexually mature. Some males with a length ranging from 70 to 79 mm and all males 80 mm longer were sexually mature. The spawning season was from May to July, and the water temperature was between 19.6℃ to 29℃ during that period. The prosperous spawning season was June (26℃). The average number of eggs in the ovaries was 2,473 (883-4,955) per matured female, and the matured eggs were yellowish and spherical with a mean diameter of 1.42 (1.20-0.54) mm. The correlation between total length and weight was BW=0.0000006TL3.21 with the constant a as 0.0000006 and parameter b as 3.21. The condition factor (K) was 1.67 (1.18-2.43) on average, and the slope was 0.116.

A Proposal for Simplified Velocity Estimation for Practical Applicability (실무 적용성이 용이한 간편 유속 산정식 제안)

  • Tai-Ho Choo;Jong-Cheol Seo; Hyeon-Gu Choi;Kun-Hak Chun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2023
  • Data for measuring the flow rate of streams are used as important basic data for the development and maintenance of water resources, and many experts are conducting research to make more accurate measurements. Especially, in Korea, monsoon rains and heavy rains are concentrated in summer due to the nature of the climate, so floods occur frequently. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the flow rate most accurately during a flood to predict and prevent flooding. Thus, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) introduces 1, 2, 3 point method using a flow meter as one way to measure the average flow rate. However, it is difficult to calculate the average flow rate with the existing 1, 2, 3 point method alone.This paper proposes a new 1, 2, 3 point method formula, which is more accurate, utilizing one probabilistic entropy concept. This is considered to be a highly empirical study that can supplement the limitations of existing measurement methods. Data and Flume data were used in the number of holesman to demonstrate the utility of the proposed formula. As a result of the analysis, in the case of Flume Data, the existing USGS 1 point method compared to the measured value was 7.6% on average, 8.6% on the 2 point method, and 8.1% on the 3 point method. In the case of Coleman Data, the 1 point method showed an average error rate of 5%, the 2 point method 5.6% and the 3 point method 5.3%. On the other hand, the proposed formula using the concept of entropy reduced the error rate by about 60% compared to the existing method, with the Flume Data averaging 4.7% for the 1 point method, 5.7% for the 2 point method, and 5.2% for the 3 point method. In addition, Coleman Data showed an average error of 2.5% in the 1 point method, 3.1% in the 2 point method, and 2.8% in the 3 point method, reducing the error rate by about 50% compared to the existing method.This study can calculate the average flow rate more accurately than the existing 1, 2, 3 point method, which can be useful in many ways, including future river disaster management, design and administration.

A Study on the Current State of Pediatric Dentists and the Adequacy of Supply and Demand Based on Covered Services (소아치과 전문의 인력 현황 및 공급 적정성에 관한 연구 - 급여 진료 항목을 기준으로)

  • Yeo Won Lim;Yong Kwon Chae;Ko Eun Lee;Ok Hyung Nam;Hyoseol Lee;Sung Chul Choi;Mi Sun Kim
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.360-372
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    • 2023
  • The aim of this study was to identify the current state of pediatric dentists, evaluate the adequacy of pediatric dentist supply and demand, and find out the perception of all pediatric dentists on the current state of pediatric dentists and policy establishment. An Online survey was conducted among pediatric dentists. The questionnaire was subdivided into 'general characteristics', 'number of dental treatments and working days per year', 'proportion of covered services', 'perceptions of supply and demand of pediatric dentists'. Through the Korean Academy of Pediatric Dentistry, the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Services, the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS), and the Korean Statistical Information Service, the current state of pediatric dentists, the number of claims for covered services, and the decrease in births per year were investigated. Dental clinics claiming to be pediatric dentistry reached half of all medical institutions, but only 3.78% of pediatric dentists actually worked. 61.36% of all pediatric dentists were concentrated in the metropolitan area, showing a national imbalance. Although the population of children and adolescents have continuously decreased over the past 20 years, the number of NHIS-covered services has shown a continuous increase. Over the past 10 years, the optimal supply of pediatric dentists has been maintained at around 4,000. According to the analysis, 92.15% of pediatric dentists thought that it was necessary to prepare policies and support measures at the government level. This study is expected to be used as basic data for establishing a demand estimation method for pediatric dentistry specialists in the future.

Estimation of Economic Impact on the Air Transport Industry based on the Volcanic Ash Dispersion Scenario of Mt. Baekdu (백두산 화산재 확산 시나리오에 따른 항공산업의 경제적 피해 예측)

  • Kim, Su-Do;Lee, Yeonjeong;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.109-144
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    • 2014
  • In 2010, large areas of European airspace were closed by the volcanic ash generated by the eruption of Icelandic volcano and it disrupted global trade, business and travel which caused a huge economic damage on the air transport industry. This brought concerned about the economic impact by the eruption of Mt. Baekdu volcano. In this paper, we analyze the affected areas of the air transport industry were decided by calculating the PM10 density of volcanic ash changed over time and by determining the safe upper limit of ash density in their airspace. We separate the sales in the air transport industry according to each airline, airport, and month to estimate the direct losses when all flights inside a restricted zone were canceled. Also, we estimate the indirect losses in regional output, income, and value-added of the different major industries using interindustry (input-output) analysis. There is no direct damage from VEI 1 to VEI 5. But when VEI is 6, all flights to and from Yangyang airport will be canceled due to the No Fly Zone. And some flights to and from the airports Gimhae, Ulsan and Pohang will be restricted due to the Time Limited Zone. When VEI is 7, Yangyang, Gimhae, Ulsan, Pohang and Daegu airports will be closed and all flights will be canceled and delayed. During this time, the total economic losses on the air transport industry are estimated at 8.1 billion won(direct losses of about 3.55 billion won, indirect losses of about 4.57 billion won). Gimhae international airport accounted for 92% of the total loss and is the most affected area according to the volcanic ash scenario of Mt. Baekdu.