• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.477-492
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• 2018

Recently, the adaptive nonlinear static analysis method has been widely used in the field of performance based earthquake engineering. However, the proposed methods are almost deterministic and cannot directly consider the seismic record uncertainties. In the current study an innovative Stochastic Adaptive Pushover Analysis, called "SAPA", based on equivalent hysteresis system responses is developed to consider the earthquake record to record uncertainties. The methodology offers a direct stochastic analysis which estimates the seismic demands of the structure in a probabilistic manner. In this procedure by using a stochastic linearization technique in each step, the equivalent hysteresis system is analyzed and the probabilistic characteristics of the result are obtained by which the lateral force pattern is extracted and the actual structure is pushed. To compare the results, three different types of analysis have been considered; conventional pushover methods, incremental dynamic analysis, IDA, and the SAPA method. The result shows an admirable accuracy in predicting the structure responses.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.980-985
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• 2005

Since the 1980s, Build-Operate-Transfer and its variations have become a common approach to develop large-scale infrastructure projects. Despite the slight variations in contractual settings, the key issue for all parties concerned is to assess the risks and uncertainties inherent in a project. The risk factors studied and highlighted by past researchers are very diverse. This paper starts with an objective to compare the risk factors in different sectors of infrastructure, and then categorize them into two kinds: general and specific. Following this classification, risk mitigation strategies should be adopted differently at the corporate and project levels. A few short cases have also been used to illustrate the flexible measures or "options" that some project participants have designed to address risks and uncertainties at the two levels.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권5A호
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• pp.849-859
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 벤치마크 사장교를 이용해 다양한 불확실성에 대해서 복합시스템에 사용된 ${\mu}$-제어기의 강인성 해석을 수행하였다. 복합 시스템에 추가적으로 사용된 능동제어 장치로 인하여 전체 시스템의 강인성이 저하되거나 불안정성이 발생할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 복합 시스템의 강인성을 향상 시키기 위해 기본적으로 신뢰성이 확보되는 수동장치와 함께 불확실성을 포함한 시스템의 성능과 안정성(강인성능)을 보장하는 ${\mu}$-합성법을 능동제어 장치에 사용하였다. 교량상판에 추가적인 질량, 구조물 강성행렬에 대한 섭동, 능동제어 장치의 시간지연, 그리고 이들의 조합을 이용하여 ${\mu}$-합성법의 강인성을 조사하였다. 수치해석 결과 다양한 불확실성에 대해 제안된 시스템은 제어성능의 저하 없이 뛰어난 강인성을 보여 주었다. 또한 제어시스템의 강인성은 다른 불확실성에 비해 구조물의 강성행렬 섭동에 더 큰 영향을 받는다. 따라서 ${\mu}$-합성법으로 제어되는 복합 시스템은 불확실성이 많은 지진하중을 받는 사장교에 개선된 제어기법으로 제안될 수 있다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.430-436
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• 2015

Numerical air quality forecasting suffers from the large uncertainties of input data including emissions, boundary conditions, earth surface properties. Data assimilation has been widely used in the field of weather forecasting as a way to reduce the forecasting errors stemming from the uncertainties of input data. The present study aims at evaluating the effect of input data on the air quality forecasting results in Korea when data assimilation was invoked to generate the initial concentrations. The forecasting time was set to 36 hour and the emissions and initial conditions were chosen as tested input parameters. The air quality forecast model for Korea consisting of WRF and CMAQ was implemented for the test and the chosen test period ranged from November $2^{nd}$ to December $1^{st}$ of 2014. Halving the emission in China reduces the forecasted peak value of $PM_{10}$ and $SO_2$ in Seoul as much as 30% and 35% respectively due to the transport from China for the no-data assimilation case. As data assimilation was applied, halving the emissions in China has a negligible effect on air pollutant concentrations including $PM_{10}$ and $SO_2$ in Seoul. The emissions in Korea still maintain an effect on the forecasted air pollutant concentrations even after the data assimilation is applied. These emission sensitivity tests along with the initial condition sensitivity tests demonstrated that initial concentrations generated by data assimilation using field observation may minimize propagation of errors due to emission uncertainties in China. And the initial concentrations in China is more important than those in Korea for long-range transported air pollutants such as $PM_{10}$ and $SO_2$. And accurate estimation of the emissions in Korea are still necessary for further improvement of air quality forecasting in Korea even after the data assimilation is applied.

• 대한환경공학회지
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• 제30권11호
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• pp.1123-1131
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• 2008

본 연구는 대기 중 PM2.5의 미량금속 중 As을 중성자방사화분석법을 이용하여 분석할 때 발생되는 측정불확도를 ISO GUM 방법과 MCS 방법을 모두 적용하여 비교, 평가하였다. 불확도의 요인은 ISO GUM을 엄격하게 준용하여 파악하였으며 특정일에 채취된 PM2.5 내 As 농도에 대해 두 방법의 계산 결과가 4% 미만으로 크게 다르지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 연구기간 중 채취된 총 60개의 PM2.5 시료에 대해 As 농도의 확장불확도를 역시 MCS 방법을 이용하여 산출하였는데, 연구지역에서의 As의 개별 농도값에 대한 95% 신뢰구간의 확장불확도는 대부분 10%의 범위에서 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 확장불확도에 대한 표준불확도 요인의 기여율은 계측통계오차(62.3%), 검출효율(18.5%), 시료 채취 시 유량(12.3%), flux 변동(2.3%), 특정감마선 방출률(1.8%) 등의 순으로 크게 나타났다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.127-136
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• 2022

In this work a multi-fidelity non-intrusive polynomial chaos (MF-NIPC) has been applied to a structural wind engineering problem in architectural design for the first time. In architectural design it is important to design structures that are safe in a range of wind directions and speeds. For this reason, the computational models used to design buildings and bridges must account for the uncertainties associated with the interaction between the structure and wind. In order to use the numerical simulations for the design, the numerical models must be validated by experi-mental data, and uncertainties contained in the experiments should also be taken into account. Uncertainty Quantifi-cation has been increasingly used for CFD simulations to consider such uncertainties. Typically, CFD simulations are computationally expensive, motivating the increased interest in multi-fidelity methods due to their ability to lev-erage limited data sets of high-fidelity data with evaluations of more computationally inexpensive models. Previous-ly, the multi-fidelity framework has been applied to CFD simulations for the purposes of optimization, rather than for the statistical assessment of candidate design. In this paper MF-NIPC method is applied to flow around a rectan-gular 5:1 cylinder, which has been thoroughly investigated for architectural design. The purpose of UQ is validation of numerical simulation results with experimental data, therefore the radius of curvature of the rectangular cylinder corners and the angle of attack are considered to be random variables, which are known to contain uncertainties when wind tunnel tests are carried out. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are solved by a solver that employs the Finite Element Method (FEM) for two turbulence modeling approaches of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations: Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) and the Large Eddy simulation (LES). The results of the uncertainty analysis with CFD are compared to experimental data in terms of time-averaged pressure coefficients and bulk parameters. In addition, the accuracy and efficiency of the multi-fidelity framework is demonstrated through a comparison with the results of the high-fidelity model.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.105-132
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• 2006

본 논문의 주된 연구목적은 기존연구에서 거의 고려되지 않았던 산업재 구매시장에서의 물류환경특성과 물류자원역량이 관계규범과 물류서비스를 통하여 물류성과에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 제안한 연구가설들을 검정하기 위하여 H중공업 및 HSD엔진의 구매부, 자재관리부, 수출입관리부, 외주관리부, 수입검사부 등의 물류관련부서에 종사하는 핵심 응답자로부터 272부의 설문지를 수집하여 자료분석에 이용하였다. 구조방정식 모형 분석을 통해 알아낸 분석 결과를 연구주제별로 살펴보면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 산업재구매에서 환경의 역동성, 이질성 등의 물류환경 불확실성은 기대와는 다르게 가용성, 적시성 등의 물류서비스와 정보교환, 유연성 등의 관계규범에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 물류자원역량은 구성요인의 특성에 따라 효과가 다르게 나타났다. LIS 등의 물류정보화는 직접적으로 물류서비스에 영향을 미치지 못하고 관계규범을 통하여 간접적으로 물류서비스에 유의한 영향을 주었고 반면에 물류 거래특유투자, 수송서비스 능력 등의 물류자원은 관계규범에는 영향을 주지 못하고 직접적으로 물류서비스에 유의한 영향을 미치었다. 셋째, 거래당사자간의 합의된 관계규범은 물류서비스를 유의하게 높이는 것으로 나타났으나 물류비용절감, 배송의 질 등의 물류성과의 제고에는 별다른 효과를 나타내지 못하였다. 넷째, 많은 선행연구들의 결과와 일치하게 장기적 관계를 기반으로 하는 산업재구매자와 자재공급업자의 거래에서 관계규범을 바탕으로 한 우수한 물류서비스는 리드타임 일관성, 배송품질 향상 등의 물류성과에 유의한 영향을 주었다. 마지막으로, 본 논문에서 밝혀진 물류환경, 물류정보화, 물류자원, 관계규범, 물류서비스 및 물류성과 간의 연관관계에 대한 분석결과들은 산업재 구매자들에게 이론에 근거한 전략적 물류관리 실천방안으로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.625-639
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• 2015

Monopiles have been most widely used for supporting offshore wind turbines (OWTs) in shallow water areas. However, multi-member lattice-type structures such as jackets and tripods are also considered good alternatives to monopile foundations for relatively deep water areas with depth ranging from 25-50 m owing to their technical and economic feasibility. Moreover, jacket structures have been popular in the oil and gas industry for a long time. However, several unsolved technical issues still persist in the utilization of multi-member lattice-type supporting structures for OWTs; these problems include pile-soil-interaction (PSI) effects, realization of dynamically stable designs to avoid resonances, and quick and safe installation in remote areas. In this study, the effects of PSI on the dynamic properties of bottom-fixed OWTs, including monopile-, tripod- and jacket-supported OWTs, were investigated intensively. The tower and substructure were modeled using conventional beam elements with added mass, and pile foundations were modeled with beam and nonlinear spring elements. The effects of PSI on the dynamic properties of the structure were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation considering the load amplitude, scouring depth, and the uncertainties in soil properties.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.87-94
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• 1995

At both international and national levels, such as in the Rio Declaration and the EU's Fifth Environmental Action Plan, governments have committed themselves to the adoption of the precautionary principle (UNCED 1992, CEC 1992). These commitments mean that the existence of uncertainty in appraising policies and proposals for development should be acknowledged. Uncertainty arise in both the prediction of impacts and in the evaluation of their significance, particularly of those cumulative impacts which are individually insignificant but cumulatively damaging. The EC network of EIA experts, stated at their last meeting in Athens that indirect effects and the treatment of uncertainty are one of the main deficiencies of current EIA practice. Uncertainties in decision-making arise where choices have been made in the development of the policy or proposal, such as the selection of options, the justification for that choice, and the selection of different indicators to comply with different regulatory regimes. It is also likely that a weighting system for evaluating significance will have been used which may be implicit rather than explicit. Those involved in decision-making may employ different tolerances of uncertainty than members of the public, for instance over the consideration of the worst-case scenario. Possible methods for dealing with these uncertainties include scenarios, sensitivity analysis, showing points of view, decision analysis, postponing decisions and graphical methods. An understanding of the development of cumulative environmental impacts affords not only ecologic but also socio-economic investigations. Since cumulative impacts originate mainly in centres of urban or industrial development, in particular an analysis of future growth effects that might possibly be induced by certain development impacts. Not least it is seen as an matter of sustainability to connect this issue with ecological research. The serious attempt to reduce the area of uncertainty in environmental planning is a challenge and an important step towards reliable planning and sustainable development.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제41권11호
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• pp.1099-1108
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• 2017

동일한 시험조건에서 반복시험으로부터 얻어진 실험 데이터는 이론적으로 동일한 값을 가져야 한다. 그러나 실제 데이터 결과는 다양한 환경 요소들에 의해 발생하는 오차와 불확실성을 가지게 되어 시험 값이 변동량을 가진다. 이는 정확한 실험 데이터를 얻는데 제한사항이 된다. 본 연구에서는 확률통계 방법을 이용하여 불확실성을 가진 입력변수의 유효범위를 결정하는 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 또한 실제 현장에서 사용되는 볼트 체결 마찰계수 데이터를 이용하여 제안된 알고리즘을 적용하여 불확실성을 내재한 입력변수의 유효범위를 산출하고 이에 대한 신뢰성 평가를 하였다.