• 한국농림기상학회지
• /
• 제25권3호
• /
• pp.129-141
• /
• 2023

작물 모형은 작물의 유전적 특성을 나타내는 품종모수를 요구하며, 품종모수는 작물의 개별 품종별로 추정되어야 한다. 품종모수의 추정에는 고품질의 많은 생육 자료가 요구되지만, 자료의 생산에 상당한 비용이 필요하다. 비교적 낮은 품질의 가용성이 높은 자료를 활용하는 대신, 대량의 랜덤 모수를 생성하고 이를 평가하여 품종모수를 추정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 SIMPLE 작물 모델의 불확도를 최소화하기 위해 품종모수 추정 방식을 비교하고, 두 앙상블 방식과 대한 비교를 하였다. 모수 추정을 위한 Metropolis-Hastings (MH) 알고리즘에 대한 목적함수로 로그 가능도(log-likelihood: LL)와 generic composite similarity measure (GCSM)를 사용하였다. 또한 품종모수의 평균값을 사용한 예측(E_pm)과 개별 모수들로부터 얻어진 추정값의 평균값(E_em)의 일치도를 분석하여 앙상블 방식에 따른 불확도 변화를 파악하였다. 국내에서 재배되는 사료용 벼 품종인 조우 벼와 영우 벼를 대상으로 품종모수를 추정하였다. 2013년, 2014년, 2016년에 대한 수원, 전주, 나주, 익산에 위치한 실험포장에서 얻은 수량 관측 자료를 사용하였다. 또한 2016년부터 2018년까지 수원에서 보고된 별도의 수량 관측 자료를 사용하였다. 목적함수에 따라 추정된 품종모수의 분포에 차이가 있었다. LL을 통해 얻은 품종모수는 GCSM으로 얻은 품종모수보다 좁은 범위에 분포하였다. 두 가지 앙상블 접근법은 통계적으로 유의한 차이가 나타나지 않음을 확인하였다. GCSM의 상대적으로 높은 불확도는 수용확률을 조정하여 낮출 수 있다고 사료되고, E_pm의 결과는 기존과 다른 앙상블 방식을 통해 적은 연산을 통해 불확도를 낮출 수 있음을 보인다.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
• /
• 제30권6호
• /
• pp.319-325
• /
• 2018

본 연구는 도수(hydraulic jump)의 롤러(roller)의 거동을 분석하기 위해 영상기법을 이용한 실험연구를 수행하였다. 조석단파(tidal bore)의 거동 특성의 이해에 적용하기 위해 하류심 상승에 따른 도수 전면부의 파형과 변동성을 검토하였다. 도수의 변동성을 고려한 앙상블평균 기법을 적용하여 얻은 파형을 제시하여 시간평균 결과와 비교하였다. 앙상블평균의 기준이 된 도수시작점의 시간적 변화로부터 도수 전면부의 변동성을 통계적으로 분석하였다. 하류심 상승에 따라 전면 파형은 완만해지는 것으로 나타났으며, 시작점 변동성은 감소하였다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• 제41권11호
• /
• pp.310-317
• /
• 2017

Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.103-118
• /
• 2018

Ecosystems in subalpine regions are recognized as areas vulnerable to climatic changes because rainfall and the possibility of flora migration are very low due to the characteristics of topography in the regions. In this context, habitat niche was formulated for representative species of arbors in subalpine regions in order to understand the effects of climatic changes on alpine arbor ecosystems. The current potential habitats were modeled as future change areas according to the climatic change scenarios. Based on the growth conditions and environmental characteristics of the habitats, the study was conducted to identify direct and indirect causes affecting the habitat reduction of Abies nephrolepis. Diverse model algorithms for explanation of the relationship between the emergence of biological species and habitat environments were reviewed to construct the environmental data suitable for the six models(GLM, GAM, RF, MaxEnt, ANN, and SVM). Weights determined through TSS were applied to the six models for ensemble in an attempt to minimize the uncertainty of the models. Based on the current climate determined by averaging the climates over the past 30years(1981~2010) and the HadGEM-RA model was applied to fabricate bioclimatic variables for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 on the near and far future. The results of models of the alpine region tree species studied were put together and evaluated and the results indicated that a total of eight national parks such as Mt. Seorak, Odaesan, and Hallasan would be mainly affected by climatic changes. Changes in the Baekdudaegan reserves were analyzed and in the results, A. nephrolepis was predicted to be affected the most in the RCP8.5. The results of analysis as such are expected to be finally utilizable in the survey of biological species in the Korean peninsula, restoration and conservation strategies considering climatic changes as the analysis identified the degrees of impacts of climatic changes on subalpine region trees in Korean peninsula with very high conservation values.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.268-272
• /
• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제12권4호
• /
• pp.1406-1416
• /
• 2017

In complex and large-scale industries, properly designed fault detection and identification (FDI) systems considerably improve safety, reliability and availability of target processes. In thermal power plants (TPPs), generating units operate under very dangerous conditions; system failures can cause severe loss of life and property. In this paper, we propose a bagged auto-associative kernel regression (AAKR)-based FDI approach for steam boilers in TPPs. AAKR estimates new query vectors by online local modeling, and is suitable for TPPs operating under various load levels. By combining the bagging method, more stable and reliable estimations can be achieved, since the effects of random fluctuations decrease because of ensemble averaging. To validate performance, the proposed method and comparison methods (i.e., a clustering-based method and principal component analysis) are applied to failure data due to water wall tube leakage gathered from a 250 MW coal-fired TPP. Experimental results show that the proposed method fulfills reasonable false alarm rates and, at the same time, achieves better fault detection performance than the comparison methods. After performing fault detection, contribution analysis is carried out to identify fault variables; this helps operators to confirm the types of faults and efficiently take preventive actions.

• 한국추진공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국추진공학회 2009년도 제33회 추계학술대회논문집
• /
• pp.387-391
• /
• 2009

소형 무인항공기 추진용 덕티드 팬의 실험적 연구가 수행되었다. 이 논문에서는 덕티드 팬의 입구, 로터 뒤, 스테이터 뒤에서 허브에서 팁 방향으로 $45^{\circ}$ 경사 열선으로 측정하여 비정상 3차원 유동 특성을 연구하였다. 경사열선 요각을 고정시켜 데이터를 획득하였다. 이 데이터는 위상평균기법을 이용하여 평균되었다. 이 데이터는 Newton-Rhapson 수치해법을 통하여 3개의 비선형 연립방정식을 풀었다. 축 방향, 반경 방향 그리고 원주 방향 속도의 윤곽을 통해 팁 후류, 이차유동 그리고 팁 누설유동과 같은 유동 특성을 확인 하였다.

• 한국추진공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국추진공학회 2009년도 제33회 추계학술대회논문집
• /
• pp.395-398
• /
• 2009

Currently, a new generation of ducted fan UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) is under development for a wide range of inspection, investigation and combat missions as well as for a variety of civil roles like traffic monitoring, meteorological studies, hazard mitigation etc. The current study presents extensive results obtained experimentally in order to investigate the tip clearance effects on performance characteristics of a ducted fan for small UAV systems. Three ducted fans having different tip clearance gap and with same rotor size were examined under three different yawed conditions of calibrated slanted hot-wire probe. Three dimensional velocity flow fields were measured from hub to tip at outlet of the ducted fan. The analysis of data were done by PLEAT (Phase locked Ensemble Averaging Technique) and three non-linear differential equations were solved simultaneously by using Newton -Rhapson numerical method. Flow field characteristics such as tip vortex and secondary flow were confirmed through axial, radial and tangential velocity contour plots. At the same time, the effects of tip clearance on axial thrust and input power were also investigated by using wind tunnel measurement system. For enhancing the performance of ducted fan, tip clearance level should be as small as possible.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2002년도 학술대회지
• /
• pp.185-188
• /
• 2002

The objective of present paper is to apply a stereoscopic PIV(Particle Image Velocimetry) techiique for measuring the 3 dimensional flow structure of turbulent wake behind a marine propeller with 5 blades. It is essential to measure 3-components velocity fields for the investigation of complicated near-wake behind the propeller. The out-of-plane velocity component was measured using the particle images captured by two CCD cameras in the angular displacement configuration.400 instantaneous velocity fields were measured for each of few different blade phases of $0^{\circ},\;18^{\circ},\;36^{\circ}\;and\;54^{\circ}$. They were ensemble averaged to investigate the spatial evolution of the propeller wake in the region ranged from the trailing edge to the region of one propeller diameter(D) downstream. The phase-averaged velocity fields show the viscous wake formed by the boundary layers developed along the blade surfaces. Tip vortices were formed periodically and the slipstream contraction occurs in the near-wake region. The out-of-plane velocity component has large values at the tip and trailing votices. With going downstream, the axial turbulence intensity and the strength of tip vortices were decreased due to the visous dissipation, turbulence diffusion and blade-to-blade interaction. The blade wake traveling at higher speed with respect to the tip vortex overtakes and interacts with tip vortices formed from the previous blade. Tip vortices are separated from the wake and show oscillating trajectory

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산유체공학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회논문집
• /
• pp.689-690
• /
• 2008

In the present study, a micro holographic PTV (HPTV) system was used to experimentally investigate the structure of 3D flow within a curved micro-tube with varying Dean number. The employed HPTV system incorporated a high-speed digital camera to measure the temporal evolution of the 3D velocity fields of micro-scale fluid flows. With increasing Dean number, flow in the curved tube is transformed from a steady flow to a secondary flow with two counter-rotating vortices. In this study, to analyze the 3D flow characteristics in the curved section of tube at a high Dean number, the trajectories of fluid particles were obtained experimentally using the whole 3D velocity field data obtained by the micro HPTV technique. The mean velocity field distribution was then obtained by ensemble averaging the instantaneous velocity fields. These results would be helpful in the design of various passages within micro-scale devices or micro-chips and in understanding the mixing phenomena that occur in curved conduits along the trajectories of fluid particles.