Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology (한국환경복원기술학회지)

The Korea Society of Environmental Restoration Technology (한국환경복원기술학회)
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Climate Change Impact Assessment of Abies nephrolepis (Trautv.) Maxim. in Subalpine Ecosystem using Ensemble Habitat Suitability Modeling

서식처 적합모형을 적용한 고산지역 분비나무의 기후변화 영향평가

  • Choi, Jae-Yong (Department of Environment & Forest Resources, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Hyuk (Institute of Agricultural Science, Chungnam National University)
  • 최재용 (충남대학교 산림환경자원학과) ;
  • 이상혁 (충남대학교 농업과학연구소)
  • Received : 2018.02.05
  • Accepted : 2018.02.28
  • Published : 2018.02.28
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Abstract

Ecosystems in subalpine regions are recognized as areas vulnerable to climatic changes because rainfall and the possibility of flora migration are very low due to the characteristics of topography in the regions. In this context, habitat niche was formulated for representative species of arbors in subalpine regions in order to understand the effects of climatic changes on alpine arbor ecosystems. The current potential habitats were modeled as future change areas according to the climatic change scenarios. Based on the growth conditions and environmental characteristics of the habitats, the study was conducted to identify direct and indirect causes affecting the habitat reduction of Abies nephrolepis. Diverse model algorithms for explanation of the relationship between the emergence of biological species and habitat environments were reviewed to construct the environmental data suitable for the six models(GLM, GAM, RF, MaxEnt, ANN, and SVM). Weights determined through TSS were applied to the six models for ensemble in an attempt to minimize the uncertainty of the models. Based on the current climate determined by averaging the climates over the past 30years(1981~2010) and the HadGEM-RA model was applied to fabricate bioclimatic variables for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 on the near and far future. The results of models of the alpine region tree species studied were put together and evaluated and the results indicated that a total of eight national parks such as Mt. Seorak, Odaesan, and Hallasan would be mainly affected by climatic changes. Changes in the Baekdudaegan reserves were analyzed and in the results, A. nephrolepis was predicted to be affected the most in the RCP8.5. The results of analysis as such are expected to be finally utilizable in the survey of biological species in the Korean peninsula, restoration and conservation strategies considering climatic changes as the analysis identified the degrees of impacts of climatic changes on subalpine region trees in Korean peninsula with very high conservation values.

Keywords

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