• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.558-586
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• 2010

This paper analyze the economic effect of R&D investment for the IT Green growth initiatives in Korea, relating to Green growth which is main force for activating in order to durable growth currently. The IT green growth initiatives can be grouped by IT manufacture, IT service, and S/W and computer-related services in the R&D investment and to be analyzed by the RAS forecasting methods. The results indicate that the production-inducing effect is about 31,853 billion won for the IT manufacture, and IT service is about 14,360 billion won, and the next is S/W and computer-related service whose effect is about 4,482 billion won. The import, value added, and employment effect of IT manufacture is also bigger than those of any other sectors in IT. This is because R&D investment in case of IT manufacture is more huge than IT service. Besides, employment-inducing effects show that IT manufacture is highest in 16,596 persons; IT service is secondly highest in 9,000 persons and S/W; lastly, computer-related service is much lower than those of any other sector. So we can conjecture that the long-term initiatives of IT green growth implementation lead to increasing size of benefits in the IT sectors.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.193-207
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• 2012

The of purpose of this study is to predict export and import container volumes using a Decision Tree analysis. Factors which can influence the volume of container cargo are selected as independent variables; producer price index, consumer price index, index of export volume, index of import volume, index of industrial production, and exchange rate(won/dollar). The period of analysis is from january 2002 to December 2011 and monthly data are used. In this study, CRT(Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm is used. The main findings are summarized as followings. First, when index of export volume is larger than 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 858,19TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 115.90 and 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 716,582TEU. Second, when index of import volume is larger than 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 869,227TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 116.20 and 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 738,724TEU.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.1D
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• pp.7-15
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• 2011

The travel time value is important factor for the evaluation of feasibility the transportation facility investment. The existing method for calculation of the travel time for each mode uses daily average trip purpose. So the value of travel time is constant because it is estimated with only daily average proportion. This daily constant time value can distort the results of future demands of toll roads or economic appraisals for the projects. The proportion of the trip purpose varies by time periods. Accordingly the value of travel time also varies by time periods. In this study, times periods are classified as morning peak, evening peak, business time off-peak, and non-business time off-peak. And trip purpose proportions are sorted by each time period from raw data of Seoul household trip study, then the value of travel time for each time period is estimated with these sorted purpose proportions. A case study of Seoul Jung-gu and Yongsan-gu performed with newly estimated time value by time periods. The result of benefit calculation with the daily constant time value is overestimated approximately annual 2.5 billion Won compared by time values by time periods. The demands of toll roads are also overestimated with the existing daily constant time value by daily 3,500 vehicles and total revenue of toll roads are overestimated by annually 1 billion Won. In conclusion, the value of travel time by each time period enables the more precise economic evaluation of the transportation facility investment projects, mode choice behavior, and route choice behavior especially for toll roads.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.63-72
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• 2013

Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.401-414
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• 2017

To prevent the damages from earthquakes, various researches have been conducted around the world focusing on earthquake prediction and forecasting for several decades. Among various precursory phenomena, changes in groundwater level and quality are considered to be reliable for estimating the time of earthquake occurrence and its magnitude. In effects, some countries impacted by frequent earthquakes have established and operated the groundwater monitoring network for earthquake surveillance and prediction. In Korea, recently researches have begun for using groundwater monitoring techniques for earthquake prediction. In this paper, the groundwater monitoring networks of China, Japan, and the United States were reviewed focusing on the facilities and results of researches to deduce the tasks for earthquake prediction researches using groundwater monitoring techniques in Korea. In results, research needs are suggested in the implementation of groundwater monitoring networks for specifically earthquake surveillance with the real-time monitoring and the measures to quantify the degrees of abnormal changes in the relationship of distance from the earthquake epicenter.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

This study attempts to establish a precise forecast model for the container inventory demand of shipping companies through forecasts based on equipment type/size, ports, and weekly system dynamics. The forecast subjects were Shanghai and Yantian Ports. Only dry containers (20, 40) and high cubes (40) were used as the subject container inventory in this study due to their large demand and valid data computation. The simulation period was from 2011 to 2017 and weekly data were used, applying the actual data frequency among shipping companies. The results of the model accuracy test obtained through an application of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verified that the forecast model for dry 40' demand, dry 40' high cube demand, dry 20' supply, dry 40' supply, and dry 40' high cube supply in Shanghai Port provided an accurate prediction, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Shanghai Port was otherwise verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model for dry 40' high cube demand and dry 20' supply in Yantian Port was accurate, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Yantian Port was generally verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model in this study also had relatively high accuracy when compared with the actueal data managed in shipping companies.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.123-133
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• 2016

LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas) bunkering has become an important issue with the enforcement of environment regulations in shipping industry required by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). With increased attention on LNG bunkering, many studies that focus on safety, regulation, demand forecasting, and the feasibility of LNG fueled ships have been carried out. However, most of the existing research has not included considerations of the price of LNG bunkering and its competitiveness. This paper, therefore, suggests ways to increase price competitiveness in the LNG bunkering market in the Busan Port. This paper analyzes the LNG bunkering supply mechanism by investigating various LNG bunkering terminal business in the LNG supply market. Factors that determine LNG bunkering price and its elasticity are also identified. Market players who want to operate LNG bunkering terminals in the Busan Port should introduce a merchandising trade method that is able to exclude the "Korea premium" in order to increase price competitiveness. This paper also suggests adoptable strategies such as the use of TPS (Terminal to Ship via Pipeline) type of bunkering service and the importance of location for minimizing initial investment cost.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.31-40
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• 2014

The Korean government made the 2nd Energy Basic Plan to achieve 11% of new and renewable energies distribution rate until 2035 as a response to cope with international discussion about greenhouse gas emission reduction. Renewable energies include solar thermal, photovoltaic, bioenergy, wind power, small hydropower, geothermal energy, ocean energy, and waste energy. New energies contain fuel cells, coal gasification and liquefaction, and hydrogen. As public and private investment to enhance the distribution of new and renewable energies, it is necessary to clarify the economic effects of the new and renewable energies sector. To the end, this study attempts to apply an input-output analysis and analyze the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector using 2012 input-output table. Three topics are dealt with. First, production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Second, supply shortage effects are analyzed employing supply-driven model. Lastly, price pervasive effects are investigated applying Leontief price model. The results of this analysis are as follows. First, one won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector induces 2.1776 won of production and 0.7080 won of value-added. Moreover, the employment-inducing effect of one billion won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector is estimated to be 9.0337 persons. Second, production shortage cost from one won of supply failure in new and renewable energies sector is calculated to be 1.6314 won, which is not small. Third, the impact of the 10% increase in new and renewable energies rate on the general price level is computed to be 0.0123%, which is small. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• v.8
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• pp.129-138
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• 1990

This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.113-145
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• 2009

Recently, due to the globalization of the IT(Information Technology) market, devices and systems designed in one country are used in other countries as well. This phenomenon is becoming the key factor for increased interest on cross-cultural, or cross-national, research within the IT area. However, as the IT market is becoming bigger and more globalized, a great number of IT practitioners are having difficulty in designing and developing devices or systems which can provide optimal experience. This is because not only tangible factors such as language and a country's economic or industrial power affect the user experience of a certain device or system but also invisible and intangible factors as well. Among such invisible and intangible factors, the cultural characteristics of users from different countries may affect the user experience of certain devices or systems because cultural characteristics affect how they understand and interpret the devices or systems. In other words, when users evaluate the quality of overall user experience, the cultural characteristics of each user act as a perceptual lens that leads the user to focus on a certain elements of experience. Therefore, there is a need within the IT field to consider cultural characteristics when designing or developing certain devices or systems and plan a strategy for localization. In such an environment, existing IS studies identify the culture with the country, emphasize the importance of culture in a national level perspective, and hypothesize that users within the same country have same cultural characteristics. Under such assumptions, these studies focus on the moderating effects of cultural characteristics on a national level within a certain theoretical framework. This has already been suggested by cross-cultural studies conducted by scholars such as Hofstede(1980) in providing numerical research results and measurement items for cultural characteristics and using such results or items as they increase the efficiency of studies. However, such national level culture has its limitations in forecasting and explaining individual-level behaviors such as voluntary device or system usage. This is because individual cultural characteristics are the outcome of not only the national culture but also the culture of a race, company, local area, family, and other groups that are formulated through interaction within the group. Therefore, national or nationally dominant cultural characteristics may have its limitations in forecasting and explaining the cultural characteristics of an individual. Moreover, past studies in psychology suggest a possibility that there exist different cultural characteristics within a single individual depending on the subject being measured or its context. For example, in relation to individual vs. collective characteristics, which is one of the major cultural characteristics, an individual may show collectivistic characteristics when he or she is with family or friends but show individualistic characteristics in his or her workplace. Therefore, this study acknowledged such limitations of past studies and conducted a research within the framework of 'theoretically integrated model of user satisfaction and emotional attachment', which was developed through a former study, on how the effects of different experience elements on emotional attachment or user satisfaction are differentiated depending on the individual cultural characteristics related to a system or device usage. In order to do this, this study hypothesized the moderating effects of four cultural dimensions (uncertainty avoidance, individualism vs, collectivism, masculinity vs. femininity, and power distance) as suggested by Hofstede(1980) within the theoretically integrated model of emotional attachment and user satisfaction. Statistical tests were then implemented on these moderating effects through conducting surveys with users of four digital devices (mobile phone, MP3 player, LCD TV, and refrigerator) in three countries (US, Germany, and Russia). In order to explain and forecast the behavior of personal device or system users, individual cultural characteristics must be measured, and depending on the target device or system, measurements must be measured independently. Through this suggestion, this study hopes to provide new and useful perspectives for future IS research.