• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.365-390
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• 2016

This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2017.10a
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• pp.89-91
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• 2017

A currency exchange is the rate to exchange currencies between different countries and the one of important factors to measure the economic size or status of a country. The currency exchange is affected by various economic or social events and changed dynamically. However, since too many economic and social factors affect the exchange rate and the leverage rate of each factor is so floating, it is difficult to define clearly the relationships between the exchange rate and the specific factor. In this paper, we analyze the data pattern for the exchange rate and news articles. To do this, we counts the frequencies of words presented in the news articles during specific periods and compare the frequencies with the margins of exchange rates.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.7-13
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• 2017

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the real exchange rate and the output, which is based on the macroeconomic equilibrium theory in China. Its aim will be to verify whether the change in the real exchange rate has a significant effect on the output or not. Research design, data, and methodology - This study endeavors tries to investigate the correlation among economic variables under the macroeconomic market (the commodity market and the money market) equilibrium. So, time-series data from 1990 to 2016 is applied to establish a vector auto-regression (VAR) model so as to perform an empirical analysis. Results - The empirical results reveal that an increase in the real exchange rate will result in an increase in the output in the short run. However, the empirical results also indicate that this kind of mechanism cannot work in the long run. Conclusions - The effect of a decrease of real exchange rate on output is significant in the short run. Also, this paper suggests that the total supply and the total demand can promote economic growth. The fiscal and money policy play a significant role in economic growth in China as well.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2024

Purpose: As a major economy attracting foreign investment, China is currently facing significant international economic pressure due to the appreciation of the RMB. Additionally, China is at a critical period of socio-economic development, where foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an indispensable role in stabilizing economic growth, adjusting industrial structure, and promoting economic transformation. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the relationship between RMB exchange rate expectations and FDI. It examines the magnitude of their relationship through empirical research using cointegration tests, Granger causality tests, and BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression) analysis. Results: The comprehensive study of the empirical results in this paper concludes that there is a long-term cointegrated relationship between China's RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment, indicating that their relationship is stable in the long run. It is also found that RMB exchange rate expectations have a significantly positive impact in the short term, but this impact is not significant in the long term. Conclusions: The paper also considers the possibility of establishing a China-EU Free Trade Area in the future and offers policy recommendations regarding RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.19-28
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• 2024

Purpose: In the era of global economic integration, China's doors of openness have widened, leading to increasingly frequent economic and trade exchanges between countries. Exchange rates, as a crucial economic lever for regulating foreign markets, play a vital role in the balanced development of a nation's international trade. Therefore, the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign trade has garnered widespread attention. Research design, data and methodology: This study utilizes import and export trade data between China and five ASEAN countries from 1998 to 2019. It employs regression analysis to examine the specific impact of the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi on China's import and export trade with these ASEAN nations. Results: The empirical analysis yields the following conclusions: Firstly, the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi exhibits a long-term stable relationship with China's import and export trade with the five ASEAN countries. Renminbi appreciation contributes to an increase in export trade volume but is detrimental to import trade. While this conclusion may deviate from classical trade theories, it aligns with the practical realities of China's foreign trade. Secondly, the coefficients before Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all display positive values, indicating that the growth of total economic demand has a stimulating effect on China's import and export trade.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.895-902
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• 2011

This paper is mainly concerned about providing confidence prediction interval for exchange rate during economic crisis. Our proposed method is to use block bootstrap method for prediction interval for next day. It is shown that block bootstrap method is particularly effective for interval prediction of exchange rate during economic crisis.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.115-143
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• 2023

In this paper, we address how the monetary authority should react to financial market status and exchange rate movements in a small open economy New Keynesian model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between savers and borrowers. We show that the small economy with financial frictions is more susceptible to the exogenous shocks under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. The small economy experiences a more prolonged and deeper economic recession under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange rate regime. The monetary policy taking into account external finance premium is better than the interest rate rule without considering the financial market status.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.221-244
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• 2024

This study examines how the independence of monetary policy changes in situations where the interest rate differential between domestic and foreign rates inverts, utilizing the trilemma indices. For analysis, this paper uses the trilemma indices developed by Kim et al. (2017) to analyze the relationship between the monetary policy independence index and the other two trilemma indices, namely the capital account openness index and the exchange rate stability index, across 45 countries from 2002 to 2018. The analysis reveals that the trilemma's validity is contingent. In particular, no statistically significant negative correlation was found between the monetary policy independence index and exchange rate stability index during periods of interest rate differential inversion. A positive correlation emerges between exchange rate stability and the independence of monetary policy, particularly when the inverted interest rate differential exceeds a certain threshold. This situation, where the exchange rate remains stable despite low domestic interest rates, implies that the central bank is effectively managing monetary policy to appropriately respond to economic conditions, which is reflected in the monetary policy independence index.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.159-175
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• 2006

This paper that explain exchange rate determination using Korea's economy data moment investigate whether each theory cause effect that is some on exchange rate showdown analyzing actual proof relation between foreign exchange fluctuation and financing part variance examine wish to. Because korea economic enters in the 1990s and the 2000s and the change is notable, foreign exchange fluctuation by such change is real condition that is changing. In this paper, I wish to enforce actual proof analysis if change such as him is grasped by form that is some about foreign exchange fluctuation. First, the second chapter investigates exchange rate decision theory that is used on actual proof interpretation, and executes actual proof Test in reply in subsequent the third chapter. And finally, the fourth chapter wishes to drive conclusion of this paper.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.655-660
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• 2009

As the global economic crisis, the Korean foreign exchange market appears unstable with large fluctuations in exchange rate. Inevitably, there is growing attention on price variables such as exchange rate and interest rates and also on corelation between the factors. This is an empirical study on the causality of fluctuation between exchange rate and interest rate in the Korean market under global economic crisis. The fluctuations in won/dollar exchange rate and call rate are described and followed by analysis of lead-lag relationship between the two variables using Cross-correlation function and Granger causality test.