The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management (융합경영연구)

International Convergence Management Association (국제융합경영학회)
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The Impact of the RMB Exchange Rate Expectations on Foreign Direct Investment in China

  • Yuantao FANG (Department of Business, Ningbo University of Finance and Economics) ;
  • Renhong WU (College of Economics, Guangdong Ocean University) ;
  • Md. Alamgir HOSSAIN (Department of Management, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University)
  • Received : 2024.04.22
  • Accepted : 2024.06.05
  • Published : 2024.06.30
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Abstract

Purpose: As a major economy attracting foreign investment, China is currently facing significant international economic pressure due to the appreciation of the RMB. Additionally, China is at a critical period of socio-economic development, where foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an indispensable role in stabilizing economic growth, adjusting industrial structure, and promoting economic transformation. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the relationship between RMB exchange rate expectations and FDI. It examines the magnitude of their relationship through empirical research using cointegration tests, Granger causality tests, and BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression) analysis. Results: The comprehensive study of the empirical results in this paper concludes that there is a long-term cointegrated relationship between China's RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment, indicating that their relationship is stable in the long run. It is also found that RMB exchange rate expectations have a significantly positive impact in the short term, but this impact is not significant in the long term. Conclusions: The paper also considers the possibility of establishing a China-EU Free Trade Area in the future and offers policy recommendations regarding RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment.

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