• 제목/요약/키워드: dynamic causality

검색결과 91건 처리시간 0.026초

External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Study of Granger Causality in Developing Countries

  • ZHANG, Biqiong;DAWOOD, Muhammad;AL-ASFOUR, Ahmed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권11호
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    • pp.607-617
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the causal relationship between public and private external debt and economic growth in developing countries. Our model includes 18 selected Asian developing and transition economies from 1995 thru 2019. We employ the dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods, pooled mean group (PMG), robust cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL), and pairwise panel causality test. The results of PMG and CS-ARDL show the existence of causality between external debt and economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. The pairwise Granger causality test found the bidirectional causal relationship runs from total external debt, public external debt, and private external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. The results showed first the existence of causality in the short-run and long-run between external debt and economic growth and the second, bi-directional causality that runs from external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. Both the dynamic models and robust estimator found the same inferences about the impact of main variables on economic growth in Asian developing and transition economies. The findings of this study suggest to assure debt management, investment in productive sectors, increase domestic savings, decrease external dependency, and focus on international trade.

The Dynamic Relationship of Domestic Credit and Stock Market Liquidity on the Economic Growth of the Philippines

  • CAMBA, Abraham C. Jr.;CAMBA, Aileen L.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2020
  • The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

인과성 모델에 기반 한 멀티미디어 동적 저작시스템 구현 (An Implementation of the Multimedia Dynamic Authoring System based on Causality Model)

  • 신현산
    • 인터넷정보학회논문지
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    • 제5권6호
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2004
  • 본 논문은 인과성 모델에 기반 한 멀티미디어 동적 저작시스템을 구현하였다. 사용자가 원하는 시나리오를 직관적이고 자연스럽게 프로그램 하도록 2가지 명세를 정의하였다. 인과성을 바탕으로 한 시간 명세는 프리젠테이션에 참여하는 미디어 객체간의 시간관계를 정의한 것이며, 두 번째 명세는 스크린상에 실행되는 미디어들의 상대적인 위치 관계를 토대로 정의한 공간 명세이다. 이 두 가지 사양을 토대로 프리젠테이션 시스템을 구성하였다. 본 시스템의 구성은 멀티미디어 전자문서 생성 과정을 반영한 것이며 그 단계로는 1차원 스트링 리스트 생성 단계, 시간 및 공간 트리 생성 단계, 복합 트리 생성 단계로 구성 처리하였다.

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동적 네트워크 로딩 방법 및 적용에 관한 연구 (Dynamic Network Loading Method and Its Application)

  • 한상진
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2002
  • 본 연구는 통행배분 모형과 네트워크 로딩의 일반적인 원리 및 그 관계를 규명하고. 시간을 고려한 네트워크 로딩방법 즉, 동적네트워크 로딩 방법을 소개한다. 우선 본 연구에서는, 동적 네트워크 로딩을 올바로 구현하기 위해 인과성 (causality), FIFO(First-In-First-Out), 교통량전파(flow propagation), 교통류보존(flow conservation) 등의 조건이 만족되어야 함을 제기한다. 그리고, 구체적인 동적 네트워크 로딩 방법을 알고리즘 형식으로 설명하였으며, 이후 링크 비용함수로써 결정적 대기행렬모형을 도입하여 가상 네트워크 속에서 동적 네트워크 로딩이 어떻게 이루어지는지를 수치적으로 보여준다.

표준본드선도: 본드선도에 의한 동적시스템의 일반모델 (Bond Gragh Prototypes: A General Model for Dynamic Systems in Terms of Bond Graphs)

  • 박전수;김종식
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제21권9호
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    • pp.1414-1421
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    • 1997
  • This paper examines the physics and mechanics governing the dynamic interaction between physical systems and suggests the four structures of bond graph prototypes, considered as a general model that can promise their dynamic behavior physically resonable. The bond graph prototypes originating from the paper are more realistic junction structures than those used to model dynamic systems conventionally by bond graph standards in whether physical constraints are involved or not when the energy exchange between two dynamic components arises. It is shown that the bond graph prototypes are dynamic or energetic in their describing equations compared to the bond graph standards, and connectivity and causality are properties of dynamic systems upon which the steps developed in this paper for the bond graph prototypes are wholly based and their definitions an concepts are highly emphasized all through the paper.

단순 비선형 모델을 이용한 자동차 충격흡수기의 동특성 모델링 기법 연구 (Dynamic Modeling of Automotive Shock Absorbers Using Simple Nonlinear Models)

  • 한형석;서정원;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제11권5호
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber, and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model, the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Chinese Stock Markets

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Zhao, Tianyuan Frederic
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2014
  • This paper empirically examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between stock market prices and exchange rates in Chinese stock markets using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2012 retrieved from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. Unit root, cointegration tests, vector error correction estimates, block exogeneity Wald tests, impulse responses, variance decomposition techniques and structural break tests are employed. This study found 1) long-run causality from exchange rates to stock prices in Chinese stock markets and 2) short-run causality from Japanese yen and Korean won exchange rates to stock prices in the Shanghai Stock Exchange strongly prevails while in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange weakly prevails. The impact of the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 on Chinese stock markets was insignificant.

토마토의 유통단계 간 인과성 및 비대칭적 가격 조정 연구 (Causality and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Distribution Channel of the Tomato Market in Korea)

  • 김기환;강창수
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.571-583
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the dynamic properties of causality and asymmetric price transmission in the distributional channel of the tomato market in Korea. Using the wholesale and retail price series of the tomato market, we obtain the following results. First, the price transmission mechanism reveals the causal relationship channeling from the wholesale price to the retail price. Second, we find an asymmetric price transmission from the analysis using the threshold partial adjustment model. The retail price responds strongly when the wholesale price increases. On the other hand, the retail price shows sluggish adjustment when the wholesale price decreases.

Hyperbolic tangent를 이용한 충격 흡수기 감쇠력 모델 연구 (Damping Force Modeling of Shock Absorbers Using Hyperbolic tangent)

  • 서정원;한형석;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1479-1482
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber. and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model. the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

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해상 수입물동량, 상대적 실질실효환율, 지역경기의 동태적 인과성과 충격반응 : 전남지역의 무역항을 중심으로 (Dynamic Causality and Impulse Response between Maritime Import Volume, Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Regional Industrial Activity : Focusing on a Trade Port of the Jeonnam Province)

  • 김창범
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2017
  • 본고는 전남지역 수입물동량의 결정요인으로 전남지역 산업생산지수와 상대적인 실질실효환율(미국, 중국, 일본의 실질실효환율 대비 원화 실질실효환율)을 고려하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 적어도 한 개의 장기균형관계 또는 공적분벡터가 존재하였다. 이에 따라 장기균형식을 추정하여, 지역경기와 상대적 실질실효환율은 비탄력적이며, 경기가 환율보다 탄력성이 더 크다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 한편 동태적 인과관계 검정을 실시한 결과, 모든 모형에서 전남의 지역경기와 상대 실질실효환율이 전남 수입물동량에 단기와 장기 모두 일방적인 인과성이 성립하였다. 또한 모든 모형에서 상대적인 실질실효환율이 지역경기에 대한 단기적인 인과성이 존재하는 것으로 확인되었다. 게다가, 충격반응 결과는 모든 모형에서 장기균형관계 추정식과 동일한 부호를 보였으며 모든 변수의 충격이 4개월부터 그 효과가 소멸되었다. 그리고 상대 실질실효환율이 전남의 지역경기에 미치는 영향은 엔화에 대한 원화의 상대 실질실효환율이 수입물동량에 가장 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 실증분석 결과들은 실질실효환율과 지역실질소득이 전남지역의 수입물동량에 장 단기에 영향을 주는 중요한 요인임을 보여주었다. 결론적으로, 전남지역의 수입물동량을 증가시키기 위해서 국가 차원의 거시적 측면과 지역 차원의 미시적 측면에 기반한 실질실효환율과 실질소득의 기대되지 않는 변동을 감소시키려는 정책적 조치들이 필요하다.