• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic causality

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External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Study of Granger Causality in Developing Countries

  • ZHANG, Biqiong;DAWOOD, Muhammad;AL-ASFOUR, Ahmed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.607-617
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the causal relationship between public and private external debt and economic growth in developing countries. Our model includes 18 selected Asian developing and transition economies from 1995 thru 2019. We employ the dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods, pooled mean group (PMG), robust cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL), and pairwise panel causality test. The results of PMG and CS-ARDL show the existence of causality between external debt and economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. The pairwise Granger causality test found the bidirectional causal relationship runs from total external debt, public external debt, and private external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. The results showed first the existence of causality in the short-run and long-run between external debt and economic growth and the second, bi-directional causality that runs from external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. Both the dynamic models and robust estimator found the same inferences about the impact of main variables on economic growth in Asian developing and transition economies. The findings of this study suggest to assure debt management, investment in productive sectors, increase domestic savings, decrease external dependency, and focus on international trade.

The Dynamic Relationship of Domestic Credit and Stock Market Liquidity on the Economic Growth of the Philippines

  • CAMBA, Abraham C. Jr.;CAMBA, Aileen L.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2020
  • The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

An Implementation of the Multimedia Dynamic Authoring System based on Causality Model (인과성 모델에 기반 한 멀티미디어 동적 저작시스템 구현)

  • Shin Hyun-san
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we implement the multimedia dynamic authoring system based on causality model. we define two specifications which support user to specify intuitively and naturally what he/she wants, The temporal specification describes causal-based temporal relationships between presentation objects, and the spatial specification describes relative layout structure among objects on the screen. Using the specifications, the system processes for multimedia documentation are one-dimensional string list, relational trees, such as temporal. spatial, and annotated composition tree generation phases.

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Dynamic Network Loading Method and Its Application (동적 네트워크 로딩 방법 및 적용에 관한 연구)

  • 한상진
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2002
  • This study first explains general features of traffic assignment models and network loading methods, and investigates the relationship between them. Then it introduces a dynamic network loading method, which accounts far time variable additionally. First of all, this study suggests that it is important to consider some requirements for the dynamic network loading, such as causality, FIFO(First-In-First-Out) discipline, the flow propagation, and the flow conservation. The details of dynamic network loafing methods are explained in the form of algorithm, and numerical examples are shown in the test network by adopting deterministic queuing model for a link Performance function.

Bond Gragh Prototypes: A General Model for Dynamic Systems in Terms of Bond Graphs (표준본드선도: 본드선도에 의한 동적시스템의 일반모델)

  • Park, Jeon-Soo;Kim, Jong-Shik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.1414-1421
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    • 1997
  • This paper examines the physics and mechanics governing the dynamic interaction between physical systems and suggests the four structures of bond graph prototypes, considered as a general model that can promise their dynamic behavior physically resonable. The bond graph prototypes originating from the paper are more realistic junction structures than those used to model dynamic systems conventionally by bond graph standards in whether physical constraints are involved or not when the energy exchange between two dynamic components arises. It is shown that the bond graph prototypes are dynamic or energetic in their describing equations compared to the bond graph standards, and connectivity and causality are properties of dynamic systems upon which the steps developed in this paper for the bond graph prototypes are wholly based and their definitions an concepts are highly emphasized all through the paper.

Dynamic Modeling of Automotive Shock Absorbers Using Simple Nonlinear Models (단순 비선형 모델을 이용한 자동차 충격흡수기의 동특성 모델링 기법 연구)

  • 한형석;서정원;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber, and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model, the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Chinese Stock Markets

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Zhao, Tianyuan Frederic
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2014
  • This paper empirically examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between stock market prices and exchange rates in Chinese stock markets using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2012 retrieved from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. Unit root, cointegration tests, vector error correction estimates, block exogeneity Wald tests, impulse responses, variance decomposition techniques and structural break tests are employed. This study found 1) long-run causality from exchange rates to stock prices in Chinese stock markets and 2) short-run causality from Japanese yen and Korean won exchange rates to stock prices in the Shanghai Stock Exchange strongly prevails while in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange weakly prevails. The impact of the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 on Chinese stock markets was insignificant.

Causality and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Distribution Channel of the Tomato Market in Korea (토마토의 유통단계 간 인과성 및 비대칭적 가격 조정 연구)

  • Kim, Gi-Hwan;Kang, Chang-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.571-583
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the dynamic properties of causality and asymmetric price transmission in the distributional channel of the tomato market in Korea. Using the wholesale and retail price series of the tomato market, we obtain the following results. First, the price transmission mechanism reveals the causal relationship channeling from the wholesale price to the retail price. Second, we find an asymmetric price transmission from the analysis using the threshold partial adjustment model. The retail price responds strongly when the wholesale price increases. On the other hand, the retail price shows sluggish adjustment when the wholesale price decreases.

Damping Force Modeling of Shock Absorbers Using Hyperbolic tangent (Hyperbolic tangent를 이용한 충격 흡수기 감쇠력 모델 연구)

  • 서정원;한형석;노규석;허승진;김기훈
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2003.06a
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    • pp.1479-1482
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    • 2003
  • The shock absorber is a part having a direct influence on the ride comfort, stability and dynamic load prediction of a vehicle. Thus, a rationally modeled shock absorber should be required in the dynamic analysis of vehicles. This thesis presents a modified model, based on Worden's hyperbolic tangent function, in order to fit experimental data on the velocity-damping force of a shock absorber. The hyperbolic tangent function correctly indicates the characteristics of a shock absorber. and has the advantage of containing physical causality. To evaluate the method, comparative evaluations of the linear model. the 5th polynomial model and Worden's model were carried out. The function presented in this paper is not only simple but also makes it possible to estimate the function coefficients easily and visually. In addition, it has the advantage of containing physical causality. Lastly, it effectively models the damping force of a shock absorber.

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Dynamic Causality and Impulse Response between Maritime Import Volume, Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Regional Industrial Activity : Focusing on a Trade Port of the Jeonnam Province (해상 수입물동량, 상대적 실질실효환율, 지역경기의 동태적 인과성과 충격반응 : 전남지역의 무역항을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to determine the short run and long run dynamics between maritime import volume (IMV), industrial production (IP), and real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Korean Won over the REER of certain major currencies (US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Japanese Yen) in Korea's Jeonnam province. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration results reveal that at least one cointegration vector or long-run relationship exists. Hence, this study estimated the long run equilibrium equation, which indicates that both IP and REER are inelastic, although the former is bigger than the latter. Moreover, the dynamic causality analysis reveals short and long-run unidirectional causality from IP and REER to IMV in all three models. Further, in all the models, the results indicate short run unidirectional causality from REER to IP. In addition, the impulse response (IR) results show that the impulse of IP and REER decayed after four months. Additionally, the IR analysis results indicate that the REER of the Korean Won over the REER of Japanese Yen is the biggest with respect to the impact of relative REER on IP, which is the proxy variable of regional real income. Thus, empirical results indicated that real income and REER play an important role in determining the Jeonnam's maritime import demand behavior in the short run and long run. More importantly, substantial actions reducing unexpected fluctuation of the REER and real income based on micro and macro economic policies will increase the imported volume in the ports of the Jeonnam province.