• 제목/요약/키워드: development scenarios

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수소충전소 및 수소자동차의 사고 시나리오 개발 (Development of Accident Scenarios for Hydrogen Refueling Station and Fuel Cell Vehicle)

  • 박병직;김양균;임옥근
    • 자동차안전학회지
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2023
  • The registration rate of eco-friendly vehicles, such as hydrogen vehicles, is increasing rapidly, however, few first responders have experienced related accidents. Accident scenarios at hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen vehicles on a road were investigated, and the relative importance of each scenario was analyzed using AHP analysis. Leakage, jet flame, and explosion that occurred inside and outside the hydrogen refueling station were reviewed, and the hydrogen gas explosion in the compartment showed the highest importance value. In case of the hydrogen vehicle, traffic accident statistics and actual accidents were used. It was analyzed that the hydrogen vessel explosion on the road due to the failure of TPRD and the leakage in the underground parking area were difficult to respond. The developed accident scenarios are expected to be used for first responder training.

Feasibility Analysis of Alternative Electricity Systems by 2030 in the Post-Fukushima Era

  • Park, Nyun-Bae;Lee, Sanghoon;Han, Jin-Yi;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2014
  • The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

시나리오를 이용한 울산 내항의 혼잡 분석 (Congestion Analysis in the Inner Harbour of Ulsan Using a Scenario)

  • 하창승;백인흠
    • 수산해양교육연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.278-287
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    • 2007
  • Since traffic congestion ratio at any given port fluctuates on the number of arriving and departing vessels, the total tonnage of freight volume being handled, and the number of berth in operation and other factors, there exists a need to numerically analyze the waterway traffic volume. However, there are no effective regulations in regards to the waterway traffic analysis prior to expansion of a port facility. The current analysis requires the traffic analysis in relation only to the width of the waterway, which clearly falls short of achieving a comprehensive evaluation study that could be used in consideration of port expansion.This study provides five scenarios to execute a comprehensive evaluation study and base for the sensitivity study by analyzing the scenarios. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the A, B, and C scenarios varies the average arrival ratio of the berth shows 1.1, 1.19, and 1.28 times of delays respectively. Also, The D and E scenarios take place malfunctions of pier shows 1.21 and 1.53 times of delays respectively. Therefore, various strategies of harbor development and method of harbor management are needed for the flexible correspondence to the environmental changes such as the excessive increasing of the freight volume and often taking place of malfunctioning.

Application of Advanced Impact Analysis in Developing Iran's Gas Industry Scenarios

  • Servati, Yasser;Ghodsypour, Seyed Hassan;Soleimani, Mansooreh
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.307-317
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    • 2016
  • According to most of energy sector experts, at least in the next two decades, fossil energy plays important role in fulfilling required energy in the world. Based on these conditions, the investigation of the conditions of major countries providing natural gas in the world can be useful in analysis of future development of this clean fuel. According to the latest estimations of British Petroleum Company, Iran with 18.2% natural gas reservoirs has the first natural gas reservoirs in the world. The main purpose of this paper is developing scenarios of gas industry in Iran. To achieve the mentioned goals, besides investigation of existing methods of scenario design and existing production scenarios, natural gas export and consumption in Iran and the world in 2035, the most important scenarios of gas industry in Iran are formulated by critical uncertainty analysis approach using quantitative advanced time based impact analysis in 2035 horizon.

Development of comprehensive earthquake loss scenarios for a Greek and a Turkish city - structural aspects

  • Kappos, A.J.;Panagopoulos, G.K.;Sextos, A.G.;Papanikolaou, V.K.;Stylianidis, K.C.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제1권2호
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    • pp.197-214
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    • 2010
  • The paper presents a methodology for developing earthquake damage and loss scenarios for urban areas, as well as its application to two cities located in Mediterranean countries, Grevena (in Greece) and D$\ddot{u}$zce (in Turkey), that were struck by strong earthquakes in the recent past. After compiling the building inventory in each city, fragility curves were derived using a hybrid approach previously developed by the authors, and a series of seismic scenarios were derived based on microzonation studies that were specifically conducted for each city (see companion paper by Pitilakis et al.). The results obtained in terms of damage estimates, required restoration times and the associated costs are presented in a GIS environment. It is deemed that both the results obtained, and the overall methodology and tools developed, contribute towards the enhancement of seismic safety in the Mediterranean area (as well as other earthquake-prone regions), while they constitute a useful pre-earthquake decision-making tool for local authorities.

사회복지관 피난모델링을 통한 시나리오 개발의 필요성 (The Need for Developiong Scenarios through Social Welfare Facility Evacuation Modeling)

  • 김진하;김서영;공하성
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2023
  • Social welfare facilities are used by a wide range of local residents, including vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and people with disabilities. During emergencies like fires, confusion can arise as these individuals try to evacuate. Evacuation simulation results have shown that utilizing evacuation systems based on specific evacuation scenarios can significantly decrease the time required for evacuation compared to general evacuation procedures. By anticipating potential fires based on changes in social and facility environments, appropriate evacuation scenarios can be developed and applied to evacuation systems, thus contributing to the safety and security of individuals during emergencies. In conclusion, for social welfare facilities that serve a large number of people, it is necessary to expand the focus on performance-based design depending on the size of the facility, and to continuously develop and train for appropriate evacuation scenarios that align with changing facility environments.

Goal-based Scenarios(GBS) 모형을 적용한 웹기반 교육용 컨텐츠의 설계 및 개발 연구 (Design and Development of WBI Contents: A Goal-based Scenarios (GBS) Model Approach)

  • 조규락;조영환;김미경;성봉식
    • 컴퓨터교육학회논문지
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    • 제7권5호
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2004
  • 인터넷이라는 새로운 IT기술을 교육현장에서 적극적으로 활용해야 한다는 강한 요구에도 불구하고 웹기반 교육의 정착은 미흡한 실정이다. 그 원인은 현재 웹기반 교육이 전통적 교실수업과 질적으로 다르지 않고 웹기반 교육에 적합한 설계모형들이 충분히 개발되지 않았기 때문이다. 본 연구자들은 구성주의 학습관에 기반한 GBS 설계모형을 이용하여 도서관 이용에 관한 웹기반 교육용 컨텐츠를 개발함으로써 웹기반 교육을 개발하거나 활용하고자 하는 교사와 교육실천가들에게 구체적인 개발사례를 제공하고자 한다. 3개월 간 요구분석, 학습내용분석, 학습자 및 학습환경분석을 통해서 GBS모형을 적용한 웹기반 교육용 컨텐츠를 설계하고 GBS의 7가지 구성요소들에 충실하게 개발하였다. 본 연구의 결과들은 학교와 기업에서 새로운 형태의 웹기반 교육을 개발하고자 하는 실천가들에게 구체적인 가이드를 제공해줄 것이다.

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HILS를 이용한 신재생 에너지원이 포함된 에너지 저장시스템의 운영 시나리오 개발 (Development of Operation Scenarios by HILS for the Energy Storage System Operated with Renewable Energy Source)

  • 신동철;전지환;박성진;이동명
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제67권2호
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    • pp.224-232
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    • 2018
  • According to government policy, renewable energy facility such as solar power generation is being implemented for newly constructed buildings. In recent years, the introduction of Energy Storage System (ESS) served as an emergency power for replacing an existing diesel generator has been increasing. Furthermore, in order to expand the efficacy of the ESS operation, operation in combination with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power generation is increasing. Hence, development of the ESS operation algorithms for emergency mode as well as the peak power cut mode, which is the essential feature of ESS, are necessary. The operational scenarios of ESS need to consider load power requirement and the amount of the power generation by renewable energy sources. For the verification of the developed scenarios, tests under the actual situation are demanded, but there is a difficulty in simulating the emergency operation situation such as system failure in the actual site. Therefore, this paper proposes simulation models for the HILS(Hardware In the Loop Simulation) and operation modes developed through HILS for the ESS operated with renewable energy source under peak power reduction and emergency modes. The paper shows that the ESS operation scenarios developed through HILS work properly at the actual site, and it verifies the effectiveness of the control logic developed by the HILS.

A case study on the economic feasibility of different patterns of green care and healing complexes

  • Koo, Seungmo;Kim, Dae Sik;Koo, Hee Dong;Lee, Han Joon;Park, Bum Jin;Kim, Kyoung-Chan
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제44권3호
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    • pp.451-461
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    • 2017
  • Korean agriculture has recently focused on the 6th dimension of industrialization, which includes the functions of healing and care. The green care and healing business is one of the most representative models, satisfying modern consumers' needs for care or healing in rural agricultural environments. Many studies have shown physical and social benefits from green care and healing, but studies regarding economic performance are rarely found. The present study aimed to analyze the economic feasibility of different green care and healing farm complexes proposed in recent domestic research, with various possible combinations of business scenarios. The results show that most of the scenarios are economically feasible as B/C (benefit-cost ratio) and IRR (internal rate of return) are 1.19 and 8.53%, respectively, under scenario 1. This study also performed a break-even analysis for providing more flexible decision-making information. Overall, scenario 1 from green care and healing site and scenario 4 from green care and healing cluster are found to be superior to the other scenarios in terms of B/C and IRR. The scenarios in this study reflect the domestic farms or complexes which have similar functions of care or healing. Therefore, the results of this study provide information on practical policies and business implications in making decisions on the specific size and operational patterns when adopting green care and healing complexes by central or local governments and private sectors in the future.

도시철도용 무선통신기반 열차제어시스템 운영시나리오 연구 (A study of Operational Scenarios for the Wireless Communications Based Train Control System)

  • 윤용기;오세찬;이강미;조현정;김용규
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.904-909
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    • 2011
  • The development of train control system shall operate a series of processes like system designing, system production and system performance evaluation as a result of various requirements analysis presented in operation rules, operating guidelines for railway organizations etc, notified by the nation. Therefore, considering operation conditions, operation plan, linkage to railway network etc, the major document like system functional specifications, system development specifications, system test plans etc must be drawn up. In this paper we classify system operating scenarios required to prepare for system standard specification and system performance evaluation report of CBTC system for urban subways supporting unmanned automatic operation, and adjust each of the operating status.

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