Abstract
Since traffic congestion ratio at any given port fluctuates on the number of arriving and departing vessels, the total tonnage of freight volume being handled, and the number of berth in operation and other factors, there exists a need to numerically analyze the waterway traffic volume. However, there are no effective regulations in regards to the waterway traffic analysis prior to expansion of a port facility. The current analysis requires the traffic analysis in relation only to the width of the waterway, which clearly falls short of achieving a comprehensive evaluation study that could be used in consideration of port expansion.This study provides five scenarios to execute a comprehensive evaluation study and base for the sensitivity study by analyzing the scenarios. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the A, B, and C scenarios varies the average arrival ratio of the berth shows 1.1, 1.19, and 1.28 times of delays respectively. Also, The D and E scenarios take place malfunctions of pier shows 1.21 and 1.53 times of delays respectively. Therefore, various strategies of harbor development and method of harbor management are needed for the flexible correspondence to the environmental changes such as the excessive increasing of the freight volume and often taking place of malfunctioning.