Study on Tourism Demand Forecast and Influencing Factors in Busan Metropolitan City (부산 연안도시 관광수요 예측과 영향요인에 관한 연구)
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- Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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- v.29 no.7
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- pp.915-929
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- 2023
Improvements in people's quality of life, diversification of leisure activities, and changes in population structure have led to an increase in the demand for tourism and an expansion of the diversification of tourism activities. In particular, for coastal cities where land and marine tourism elements coexist, various factors influence their tourism demands. Tourism requires the construction of infrastructure and content development according to the demand at the tourist destination. This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy and explore influencing factors through time series analysis of tourism scale using agent-based data. Basic local governments in the Busan area were examined, and the data used were the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption on a monthly basis. The univariate time series analysis, which is a deterministic model, was used along with the SARIMAX analysis to identify the influencing factor. The tourism consumption propensity, focusing on the consumption amount according to business types and the amount of mentions on SNS, was set as the influencing factor. The difference in accuracy (RMSE standard) between the time series models that did and did not consider COVID-19 was found to be very wide, ranging from 1.8 times to 32.7 times by region. Additionally, considering the influencing factor, the tourism consumption business type and SNS trends were found to significantly impact the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption. Therefore, to predict future demand, external influences as well as the tourists' consumption tendencies and interests in terms of local tourism must be considered. This study aimed to predict future tourism demand in a coastal city such as Busan and identify factors affecting tourism scale, thereby contributing to policy decision-making to prepare tourism demand in consideration of government tourism policies and tourism trends.
The purpose of this study was to identify the stage of concern, the level of use, and the innovation configuration of Home Economics teachers regarding creativity and personality education in Home Economics(HE) classes. The survey questionnaires were sent through mails and e-mails to middle-school HE teachers in the whole country selected by systematic sampling and convenience sampling. Questionnaires of the stages of concern and the levels of use developed by Hall(1987) were used in this study. 187 data were used for the final analysis by using SPSS/window(12.0) program. The results of the study were as following: First, for the stage of concerns of HE teachers on creativity and personality education, the information stage of concerns(85.51) was the one with the highest response rate and the next high in the following order: the management stage of concerns(81.88), the awareness stage of concerns(82.15), the refocusing stage of concerns(68.80), the collaboration stage of concerns(61.97), and the consequence stage of concerns(59.76). Second, the levels of use of HE teachers on creativity and personality education was highest with the mechanical levels(level 3; 21.4%) and the next high in the following order: the orientation levels of use(level 1; 20.9%), the refinement levels(level 5; 17.1%), the non-use levels(level 0; 15.0%), the preparation levels(level 2; 10.2%), the integration levels(level 6; 5.9%), the renewal levels(level 7; 4.8%), the routine levels(level 4; 4.8%). Third, for the innovation configuration of HE teachers on creativity and personality education, more than half of the HE teachers(56.1%) mainly focused on personality education in their HE classes; 31.0% of the HE teachers performed both creativity and personality education; a small number of teachers(6.4%) focused on creativity education; the same number of teachers(6.4%) responded that they do not focus on neither of the two. Examining the level and type of performance HE teachers applied, the average score on the performance of creativity and personality education was 3.76 out of 5.00 and the mean of creativity component was 3.59 and of personality component was 3.94, higher than standard. For the creativity education, openness/sensitivity(3.97) education was performed most and the next most in the following order: problem-solving skill(3.79), curiosity/interest(3.73), critical thinking(3.63), problem-finding skill(3.61), originality(3.57), analogy(3.47), fluency/adaptability(3.46), precision(3.46), imagination(3.37), and focus/sympathy(3.37). For the personality education, the following components were performed in order from most to least: power of execution(4.07), cooperation/consideration/just(4.06), self-management skill(4.04), civic consciousness(4.04), career development ability(4.03), environment adaptability(3.95), responsibility/ownership(3.94), decision making(3.89), trust/honesty/promise(3.88), autonomy(3.86), and global competency(3.55). Regarding what makes performing creativity and personality education difficult, most HE teachers(64.71%) chose the lack of instructional materials and 40.11% of participants chose the lack of seminar and workshop opportunity. 38.5% chose the difficulty of developing an evaluation criteria or an evaluation tool while 25.67% responded that they do not know any means of performing creativity and personality education. Regarding the better way to support for creativity and personality education, the HE teachers chose in order from most to least: 'expansion of hands-on activities for students related to education on creativity and personality'(4.34), 'development of HE classroom culture putting emphasis on creativity and personality'(4.29), 'a proper curriculum on creativity and personality education that goes along with students' developmental stages'(4.27), 'securing enough human resource and number of professors who will conduct creativity and personality education'(4.21), 'establishment of the concept and value of the education on creativity and personality'(4.09), and 'educational promotion on creativity and personality education supported by local communities and companies'(3.94).
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70
We constructed a stand yield table for Chamaecyparis obtusa based on data from an actual forest. The previous stand yield table had a number of disadvantages because it was based on actual forest information. In the present study we used data from more than 200 sampling plots in a stand of Chamaecyparis obtusa. The analysis included theestimation, recovery and prediction of the distribution of values for diameter at breast height (DBH), and the result is a valuable process for the preparation ofstand yield tables. The DBH distribution model uses a Weibull function, and the site index (base age: 30 years), the standard for assessing forest productivity, was derived using the Chapman-Richards formula. Several estimation formulas for the preparation of the stand yield table were considered for the fitness index, and the optimal formula was chosen. The analysis shows that the site index is in the range of 10 to 18 in the Chamaecyparis obtusa stand. The estimated stand volume of each sample plot was found to have an accuracy of 62%. According to the residuals analysis, the stands showed even distribution around zero, which indicates that the results are useful in the field. Comparing the table constructed in this study to the existing stand yield table, we found that our table yielded comparatively higher values for growth. This is probably because the existing analysis data used a small amount of research data that did not properly reflect. We hope that the stand yield table of Chamaecyparis obtusa, a representative species of southern regions, will be widely used for forest management. As these forests stabilize and growth progresses, we plan to construct an additional yield table applicable to the production of developed stands.
Business facilities among domestic architectures have rapidly been constructed along with domestic economic development. It is an important facility taking the second largest proportion next to apartment buildings among current 31 building types of fire department classification of 2012 year for urban architectures. The expected service life of business facilities is 15 years, but 70% of those in urban areas have surpassed the 15 year service life as of the present 2014. Thus, the demand for urgent rehabilitation of such facilities is constantly increasing due to the aging and performance deterioration of the facilities'main finishing materials. Especially, the business facilities are being used for the lease of company office or private office, and such problems as aging and performance deterioration of the facilities could cause less competitive edge for leasing and real estate value depreciation for the O&M (Operation & Management) agent and the owner, respectively. Therefore, an effective planned rehabilitation as a preventive measure according to the standardized repair rate by the number of years after the construction is in need in order to prevent the aging and performance deterioration of the facilities(La et al. 2001). Nonetheless, domestic repair/rehabilitation standards based on the repair rate are mainly limited to apartment buildings and pubic institutions, resulting in impractical application of such standards to business facilities. It has been investigated and analyzed that annual repair rate data for each finishing material are required for examination of the applicability of the repair rate standard for the purpose of establishment of a repair plan. Hence, this study aimed at developing a repair rate computation model for finishing materials of the facilities and verifying the appropriateness of the annual repair rate for each finishing material through a case study after collecting and analyzing the repair history data of six business facilities. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the planning and implementation of more efficient repair/rehabilitation budget by preventing the waste of unpredicted repair cost and opportunity cost for the sake of the business facilities' owners and O&M agents.
Background: Currently, the cardiopulmonary machine with non-pulsatile pumps, which are low in internal circuit pressure and cause little damage to blood cells, is widely used. However, a great number of experimental studies shows that pulsatile perfusions are more useful than non-pulsatile counterparts in many areas, such as homodynamic, metabolism, organ functions, and micro-circulation. Yet, many concerns relating to pulsatile cardiopulmonary machines, such as high internal circuit pressure and blood cell damage, have long hindered the development of pulsatile cardiopulmonary machines. Against this backdrop, this study focuses on the safety and effectiveness of the pulsatile cardiopulmonary machines developed by a domestic research lab. Material and Method: The dual-pulsatile cardiopulmonary bypass experiment with total extracorporeal circulation was conducted on six calves, Extracorporeal circulation was provided between superior/inferior vena cava and aorta. The membrane oxygenator, which was placed between the left and right pumps, was used for blood oxygenation. Circulation took four hours. Arterial blood gas analysis and blood tests were also conducted. Plasma hemoglobin levels were calculated, while pulse pressure and internal circuit pressure were carefully observed. Measurement was taken five times; once before the operation of the cardiopulmonary bypass, and after its operation it was taken every hour for four hours. Result: Through the arterial blood gas analysis, PCO2 and pH remained within normal levels. PO2 in arterial blood showed enough oxygenation of over 100 mmHg. The level of plasma hemoglobin, which had total cardiopulmonary circulation, steadily increased to 15.87
The purpose of this study was to examine how much secondary school home economics teachers paid attention to performance assessment, to what extent and in which way they carried it out and how much support was given to that. It's basically meant to help provide more systematic support for performance assessment. The instrument used in this study was an Interest-Based Reform Adoption Model developed by Hall. Hord and et. al. at Texas University Research & Development Center for Teacher Education. and the subjects in this study were home economics teachers from 95 secondary schools in Gyeonggi province. After a survey was conducted by mail. the responses from 157 teachers were chosen for analysis. For data handling. SPSS/WIN program was utilized, and statistical data on mean. standard deviation and percentage were obtained. In addition. t-test and ANOVA were employed. The major findings of this study were as follows: First. as for their type of interest in performance assessment. influential type(35.0%) was most common. followed by confident type (29.3%). indifferent type(20.4%) and task type(15.3%). Second, regarding their implementation. every teacher carried out performance assessment. The largest group of the teachers fulfilled it as part of routine daily schedule(60 teachers. 38.2%). which could be called the level 4. The second largest group tried to integrate performance assessment to education programs(53 teachers. 33.8%). which could be called the level 5. The third largest group implemented it without making careful preparations for that(26 teachers. 16.6%). which could be called the level 3. and the fourth largest group tried to reinvent it(11 teachers. 7.0%), which could be called the level 6. The fifth largest group was in the middle of researching it(5 teachers, 3.2%). which could be called the level 1. And the sixth largest group was in the course of making preparations for that(2 teachers. 1.3%) . which could be named the level 2. Third. concerning how much they found themselves to be supported about performance assessment. they eave three or less marks to that. which showed that they weren't supported sufficiently There was little gap among them in their concern for performance assessment and its implementation levels. and this fact suggested that there wasn't satisfactory backup for their performance assessment.
'Moulinrouge' was selected as the best regenerating cultivar among 18 different spray-type chrysanthemum cultivars bred in the Gyeongnam Flowers Breeding Research Institute. When the leaf explants from standard- and spray-type chrysanthemum 'Jinba' and 'Moulinrouge' were incubated on MS basal medium supplemented with
Extracorporeal life support (ECLS) system is a device for respiratory and/or heart failure treatment, and there have been many trials for development and clinical application in the world. Currently, a non-pulsatile blood pump is a standard for ECLS system. Although a pulsatile blood pump is advantageous in physiologic aspects, high pressure generated in the circuits and resultant blood cell trauma remain major concerns which make one reluctant to use a pulsatile blood pump in artificial lung circuits containing a membrane oxygenator. The study was designed to evaluate the hypothesis that placement of a pressure-relieving compliance chamber between a pulsatile pump and a membrane oxygenator might reduce the above mentioned side effects while providing physiologic pulsatile blood flow. The study was performed in a canine model of oleic acid induced acute lung injury (N=16). The animals were divided into three groups according to the type of pump used and the presence of the compliance chamber, In group 1, a non-pulsatile centrifugal pump was used as a control (n=6). In group 2 (n=4), a single-pulsatile pump was used. In group 3 (n=6), a single-pulsatile pump equipped with a compliance chamber was used. The experimental model was a partial bypass between the right atrium and the aorta at a pump flow of 1.8∼2 L/min for 2 hours. The observed parameters were focused on hemodynamic changes, intra-circuit pressure, laboratory studies for blood profile, and the effect on blood cell trauma. In hemodynamics, the pulsatile group II & III generated higher arterial pulse pressure (47