• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2022년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.439-441
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• 2022

본 연구는 수요예측 알고리즘으로 예측한 데이터와 실시간 데이터를 모니터링하기 위한 모니터링 애플리케이션과 웹 중 전력 수요관리 애플리케이션인 '해줌온', U&E 커뮤니케이션즈에서 사용하는 건설 현장 안전관리 시스템 웹 페이지를 비교하는 연구이다. 해당 연구는 위의 두 개의 대표적인 사례로 웹과 애플리케이션의 UI의 차이점, 장단점, 데이터의 보완 등을 비교하여 적절한 애플리케이션 또는 웹을 파악할 수 있다.

• 경영과학
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.179-197
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• 2005

This study examines market acceptance for DMB service, one of the touted new business models in Korea's next-generation mobile communications service market, using adoption end diffusion of innovation as the theoretical framework. Market acceptance for DMB service was assessed by predicting the demand for the service using the Bass model, and the demand variability over time was then analyzed by integrating the innovation adoption model proposed by Rogers (2003). In our estimation of the Bass model, we derived the coefficient of innovation and coefficient of imitation, using actual diffusion data from the mobile telephone service market. The maximum number of subscribers was estimated based on the result of a survey on satellite DMB service. Furthermore, to test the difference in diffusion pattern between mobile phone service and satellite DMB service, we reorganized the demand data along the diffusion timeline according to Rogers' innovation adoption model, using the responses by survey subjects concerning their respective projected time of adoption. The comparison of the two demand prediction models revealed that diffusion for both took place forming a classical S-curve. Concerning variability in demand for DMB service, our findings, much in agreement with Rogers' view, indicated that demand was highly variable over time and depending on the adopter group. In distinguishing adopters into different groups by time of adoption of innovation, we found that income and lifestyle (opinion leadership, novelty seeking tendency and independent decision-making) were variables with measurable impact. Among the managerial variables, price of reception device, contents type, subscription fees were the variables resulting in statistically significant differences. This study, as an attempt to measure the market acceptance for satellite DMB service, a leading next-generation mobile communications service product, stands out from related studies in that it estimates the nature and level of acceptance for specific customer categories, using theories of innovation adoption and diffusion and based on the result of a survey conducted through one-to-one interviews. The authors of this paper believe that the theoretical framework elaborated in this study and its findings can be fruitfully reused in future attempts to predict demand for new mobile communications service products.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제95권6호
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• pp.778-783
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• 2006

표고버섯의 재배와 출하 결정에서 단기 가격의 예측은 매우 중요하다. 표고버섯 가격의 형성에는 많은 요인들이 작용하고 있기 때문에 이를 구조모형으로 예측하는 것은 어려운 일이다. Box-Jenkins 방법을 이용한 표고버섯과 모형선정 과정에서 발생할 수 있는 오류를 줄이고 경우에 따라서는 더 높은 예측력을 가지기도 한다. 이 연구는 1992~2005년의 가락시장 표고버섯 중품 가격자료를 이용하여 시계열 분석 모형을 구축하고 단기 가격을 예측한 것이다. 그리고 분석에 포함되지 않은 2006년의 실제가격과 예측결과를 비교하였다. 분석 결과는 날씨 변화의 영향으로 시장에 교란이 발생하였던 시기를 제외하면 비교적 높은 정확도를 보여 주어 모형의 유용성을 시사한다.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.769-782
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• 2020

Interest in fruit and vegetables has increased due to changes in consumer consumption patterns, socioeconomic status, and family structure. This study determined the factors influencing the demand for fruit and vegetables (strawberries, paprika, tomatoes and cherry tomatoes) using a panel of Rural Development Administration household-level purchases from 2010 to 2018 and compared the ability to the prediction performance. An artificial neural network model was constructed, linking household characteristics with final food expenditure. Comparing the analysis results of the artificial neural network with the results of the panel model showed that the artificial neural network accurately predicted the pattern of the consumer panel data rather than the fixed effect model. In addition, the prediction for strawberries was found to be heavily affected by the number of families, retail places and income, while the prediction for paprika was largely affected by income, age and retail conditions. In the case of the prediction for tomatoes, they were greatly affected by age, income and place of purchase, and the prediction for cherry tomatoes was found to be affected by age, number of families and retail conditions. Therefore, a more accurate analysis of the consumer consumption pattern was possible through the artificial neural network model, which could be used as basic data for decision making.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.71-85
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• 2021

기업이 물류비용을 절감할 수 있는 정교한 수요 예측 모형은 그동안 수많은 연구를 통해 다양한 방법들이 제시되었다. 이러한 연구들은 주로 수요 패턴에 의해서 적용 가능한 수요 예측 모형을 결정하고, 통계적 검증을 통해서 모형의 정확성을 판단하였다. 수요 패턴은 크게 규칙성과 불규칙성으로 나뉘어 질 수 있다. 규칙적인 패턴은 주문이 정기적이고 주문량이 일정한 경우를 의미한다. 이러한 경우에는 주로 회귀모형이나 시계열 모형을 통해서 수요를 예측하는 방법들이 사용된다. 그러나 불규칙적이고 주문량의 변동 폭이 큰 경우는 간헐적 수요(Intermittent Demand)라고 하는데, 기존의 회귀 모형이나 시계열 모형으로는 수요 예측의 오류 발생 가능성이 높기 때문이다. 간헐적 수요를 보이는 품목에 대해서는 주로 Croston모형 혹은 Holts모형 등을 사용하여 수요를 예측한다. 본 연구에서는 간헐적 수요 패턴을 보이는 항공 화물의 다양한 품목에 대해서 수요 패턴을 분석하고, 다양한 모형을 통해 수요를 예측하여 각 모형의 예측력을 비교 분석하였다. 이 과정에서 항공 화물의 품목별, 지역별로 다양한 모형의 적합도를 분석하여 항공사가 가장 효율적으로 운영할 수 있는 항공 화물의 수요 예측 모형에 대한 개발 방향을 제시하고자 함이 본 논문의 목적이다.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2004년도 춘계학술발표회
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• pp.90-99
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• 2004

Stone column is one of the soft ground improvement method, which enhances ground conditions through ground water draining, settlement reducing and bearing capacity increasing complexly by using crushed stone instead of sand in general vertical drain methods. In recent, general construction material, sand is in short of supply, because of the unbalance of demand and supply. Also, the bearing capacity improving effect of stone column method is needed in many cases so the bearing capacity estimation is considered as important point. Nevertheless, adequate estimation methods to predict bearing capacity of stone column considering stone column and improving ground behavior reciprocally is not yet prepared. To contribute this situation, bearing capacity behavior of stone column were simulated as numerically on various property cases of crushed stone and surrounded ground. Through the numerical analysis of simulation results, bearing capacity behavior prediction formula was suggested. This formula was verified by comparing the prediction result with in situ test.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 1998년도 The Korea Society for Simulation 98 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.101-105
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• 1998

A large system predictor, which can perform prediction of sales trend in a huge number of distribution centers, is presented using neural predictive model. There are 20,000 number of distribution centers, and each distribution center need to forecast future demand in order to establish a reasonable inventory policy. Therefore, the number of forecasting models corresponds to the number of distribution centers, which is not possible to estimate that kind of huge number of accurate models in ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)module. Multilayer neural net as universal approximation is employed for fitting the prediction model. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a sequential simulation procedure is performed to get appropriate network structure and also to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed simulation procedure includes neural structure identification and virtual predictive model generation. The predictive model generation consists of generating virtual signals and estimating predictive model. The virtual predictive model plays a key role in tuning the real model by absorbing the real model errors. The complement approach, based on real and virtual model, could forecast the future demands of various distribution centers.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 가을 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.53-54
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• 2022

There is an increasing demand for prediction of asbestos concentration which has an fatal effect on human body. While demolishing asbestos, the dust scatters and makes workers be exposed to danger. Up to this date, however, factors that particularly influences have not considered in predicting asbestos concentration. Most of the studies could not quantify the distribution of asbestos. Also, they did not use nominal data on buildings as important factors. Therefore, this study aims to build an asbestos concentration prediction model by quantifying distribution of asbestos and using nominal data of buildings based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This model can give significant contribution of improving the safety of workers and be useful for finding effective ways to demolish asbestos in planning.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.169-188
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• 2014

Big data seems to change knowledge management system and method of enterprises to large extent. Further, the type of method for utilization of unstructured data including image, v ideo, sensor data a nd text may determine the decision on expansion of knowledge management of the enterprise or government. This paper, in this light, attempts to figure out the prediction model of demands and supply for big data market of Korea trough data mining decision making tree by utilizing text bit data generated for 3 years on web and SNS for expansion of form for knowledge management. The results indicate that the market focused on H/W and storage leading by the government is big data market of Korea. Further, the demanders of big data have been found to put important on attribute factors including interest, quickness and economics. Meanwhile, innovation and growth have been found to be the attribute factors onto which the supplier puts importance. The results of this research show that the factors affect acceptance of big data technology differ for supplier and demander. This article may provide basic method for study on expansion of analysis form of enterprise and connection with its management activities.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1992년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집(국제학술편); KOEX, Seoul; 19-21 Oct. 1992
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• pp.106-111
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• 1992

In order to achieve stable and efficient use of energy at iron and steel works, a model for the prediction of supply and demand of electric power system is developed on the basis of the information on operation and particular patterns of electric power consumption. The optimal amount of electric power to be purchased and the optimal fuel allocation for the in-house electric power plants are also obtained by a mixed-integer linear programming(MILP) and a nonlinear programming (NLP) solutions, respectively. The validity and the effectiveness of the proposed model are investigated by several illustrative examples. The simulation results show the satisfactory energy saving by the optimal solution obtained through this research.