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Prediction of Oak Mushroom Prices Using Box-Jenkins Methodology  

Min, Kyung-Taek (Division of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science / v.95, no.6, 2006 , pp. 778-783 More about this Journal
Abstract
Price prediction is essential to decisions of investment and shipment in oak mushroom cultivation. But predicting the prices of oak mushroom is very difficult because there are so many uncertain factors affecting the demand and the supply in the market. The Box-Jenkins methodology is one of strong tools in price prediction especially for the short-term using historical observations of time series. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology is applied to find a model to forecast future oak mushroom prices. And out-of-sample test was conducted to check out the prediction accuracy. The result shows the high accuracy except for market disturbance period affected by unexpected weather change and reveals the usefulness of the model.
Keywords
Box-Jenkins methodology; ARIMA; price prediction; oak mushroom;
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