• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand fluctuation

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Dynamic Causality and Impulse Response between Maritime Import Volume, Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Regional Industrial Activity : Focusing on a Trade Port of the Jeonnam Province (해상 수입물동량, 상대적 실질실효환율, 지역경기의 동태적 인과성과 충격반응 : 전남지역의 무역항을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to determine the short run and long run dynamics between maritime import volume (IMV), industrial production (IP), and real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Korean Won over the REER of certain major currencies (US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Japanese Yen) in Korea's Jeonnam province. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration results reveal that at least one cointegration vector or long-run relationship exists. Hence, this study estimated the long run equilibrium equation, which indicates that both IP and REER are inelastic, although the former is bigger than the latter. Moreover, the dynamic causality analysis reveals short and long-run unidirectional causality from IP and REER to IMV in all three models. Further, in all the models, the results indicate short run unidirectional causality from REER to IP. In addition, the impulse response (IR) results show that the impulse of IP and REER decayed after four months. Additionally, the IR analysis results indicate that the REER of the Korean Won over the REER of Japanese Yen is the biggest with respect to the impact of relative REER on IP, which is the proxy variable of regional real income. Thus, empirical results indicated that real income and REER play an important role in determining the Jeonnam's maritime import demand behavior in the short run and long run. More importantly, substantial actions reducing unexpected fluctuation of the REER and real income based on micro and macro economic policies will increase the imported volume in the ports of the Jeonnam province.

The Impact of Competitive Environments on the Configuration of e-Biz Integration Determinants and the Business Performance (경쟁적 환경이 e-Biz통합의 결정요인 구성과 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Bong-Ho;Kim, Chul-Soo;Seo, Chang-Soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.59-87
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    • 2011
  • These days, firms are focusing on the improvement of relationships with business partners. The supply chain integrations are taking critical role in improving the relationships with business partners. In accordance with the development of the IT technology, it became possible for firms not only to integrate inner parts of the organization, but also to integrate the company with other organizations in the supply chain. Therefore, in e-Biz environments, it is imperative for firms to strengthen the core capacity through the supply chain, and to precisely determine the components of the determinants of e-Business integration which impact the firm performance. This study analyzed determinants that have impacts on e-business integration in e-business capacity perspectives in competitive environments. This study based on the premise that the resources and capacities that Grant(1991) and Hart(1995) emphasized do not directly influence the corporate performance. This study focused on the fact that corporate must create core competencies based on these capacities to establish competitive edge. Therefore, this study model analyzed to find out which e-Biz competencies are needed to integrate e-Biz according to competitive environment elements. This study designed to empirically analyze the impact of the e-Biz competencies to the e-Biz integration and to the corporate performance. Independent variables of this study-IT management, partner management, e-Biz knowledge, e-Biz establishment and proliferation, process innovation-are selected based on precedent studies on e-Biz competencies. We selected intermediate variables to verify that e-Biz competencies do not have direct impact on the corporate performance, but have impact on the e-Biz integration, which is intermediate effect. That is to verify that if the components of supply chain improve the integration level using e-Biz competencies, the overall supply chain performances will improve. Dependent variables are selected to verify that e-Biz integration has impacts on corporate performances. This study used factor analysis, path analysis, moderating effect analysis as statistical tests. First, we used exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to analyze reliability and validity. Because e-Biz competencies are presented variously by preceding studies, we used SPSS16.0 to verify if survey questionnaire used by theoretical backgrounds is properly composed. Second, we tested the property of structure model by AMOS. We did path analysis using AMOS16.0 to test structure that is composed of e-Biz competencies and e-Biz integration. Last, we tested moderating effects of measure factors. We analyzed 163 domestic companies to find out many significant suggestive points. First, relationship improvement capacity, e-business knowledge sharing capacity with business partners, and process innovation capacity are adopted as determinants of differentiation and competitive edges against competing firms. Second, e-business knowledge sharing capacity, and process innovation capacity are analyzed as the determinants of e-business integration in the firm which demand fluctuation in the market is high. On the other hand, among the determinants that require capturing ideas on new products, and strengthening the technological power, process innovation capacity are adopted as the determinants. These results provide us the foundation that the determinants that we have analyzed can impact the supply chain integration strategies which take into account the competitive environments.

The variational characteristics of Water Quality and Chlorophyll a Concentration in Kogum-sudo, Southern Part of Korean Peninsula (거금수도 양식어장의 해양환경 특성 2. 수질과 엽록소 양의 변동특성)

  • 윤양호;박종식;고남표
    • Journal of Aquaculture
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2000
  • Field survey on the variational characteristics of water quality and chlorophyll a concentraion were carried out at the 25 stations for four seasons in Kogum-sudo(Straits) southern coast of Korean Peninsula from Feburuary to October in 1993. We made an analysis on biological factor as chlorophyll a concentraion as well as physicio-chemical factors such as water temperature salinity sigma-t transparency dissolved oxygen(DO) chemical oxygen demand(COD) nutrients (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) N/P ratio and suspended solid(SS). The waters in the Kogum-sudo were not stratified due to the tidal mixing. And the high productivity in photic layer were supported by high nutrients concentration from bottom waters. The high concen-trations of suspended solid in straits had a bad influence upon marine biology of nature and cultivations. In Kogum-sudo had a sufficient nutrients for primary productivity during a year. Especially phosphate and inorganic nitrogen were high the other side silicate was very low. The source of nutrients supply depend on rather mineralization of organic matters and input of seawater from outside than input of freshwaters from lands. Phytoplankton biomass as measured by chlorphyll a concentratiion was very high all the year round and it was controlled by the combination o f several environmental factors especially of phosphate in summer and dissolved nitrogen in other seasons.

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An Analysis on the pass-through of Korean export prices of Exchange rate changes (글로벌 금융위기 이후 환률변동과 수출가격)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.229-249
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    • 2011
  • The exchange rate change has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate changes raised the risk in international trades in Korea. Also after Bretton Woods System broke down, the increasing exchange rate fluctuation raised the risk in international trade. The purpose of this dissertation is to study whether this incomplete pass-through exists in Korean export industry and furthermore to measure the markup rate of the export price using real data since Global Financial Crisis. The estimation results of the export price determination model by Error Correction Model shows that the export price of Korea has been greatly influenced by the export prices and exchange rates against U.S. Dollar of rival countries, domestic producer price as well as the Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate and also business coincidence index of U.S. in demand. Particularly, the pass-through rate of Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate to export price is estimated to be incomplete, which contrasts with the propositions of traditional exchange rate determination approach, e. g. elasticity approach, monetary approach, etc.

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Suggestion of a Hybrid Method for Estimating Photovoltaic Power Generation (전력 IT 시스템에서 복합방식의 태양광 발전량 예측 방법 제안)

  • Ju, Woo-Sun;Jang, Min-Seok;Lee, Yon-Sik;Bae, Seok-Chan;Kim, Weon-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.782-785
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    • 2011
  • Needs for MG(Microgrid) development are increasing all over the world as a solution to the problems including the depletion problem of energy resources, the growing demand for electric power and the climatic and environmental change. Especially Photovoltaic power is one of the most general renewable energy resources. However there is a problem of the uniformity of power quality because the power generated from solar light is very sensitive to climate fluctuation (variation of insolation and duration of sunshine, etc). As a solution to the above problem, ESS(Energy Storage System) is considered generally, but it has some limitations. To solve this problem this paper suggests a hybrid estimation method of photovoltaic power generation according to two climatic factors, i.e. insolation and sunshine. This result seems to help design the appropriate capacity of ESS and estimate the proper switching time between DC and AC power in the premises power system and thus maintain the uniformity of power quality.

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A Proposal of USN-based DER(Decentralized Energy Resources) Management Algorithm (USN 기반의 댁내 분산 전력 관리 알고리즘 제안)

  • Cho, Young-Rok;Jang, Min-Seok;Lee, Yon-Sik;Bae, Seok-Chan;Kim, Weon-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.824-827
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    • 2011
  • Needs for Smart Grid development are increasing all over the world as a solution to its problem according to depletion of energy resources, climatic and environmental rapidly change and growing demand for electrical power. Especially decentralized power is attracting world's attention. In this mood a new era for a unit scale of decentralized power environment is on its way in building. However there is a problem to have to be solved in the uniformity of power quality because the amount of power generated from renewable energy resources such as wind power and solar light is very sensitive to climate fluctuation. And thus this paper tries to suggest an energy management algorithm on basis of real time monitoring for meteorological data. The proposed EMS model embodies the method for predicting the power generation by monitoring and analyzing the climatic data and controling the efficient power distribution between the renewable energy and the existing power. The ultimate goal of this paper is to provide the technological basis for achieving zero-energy house.

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A Proposal of USN-based DER(Decentralized Energy Resources) Management System (USN 기반의 댁내 분산 전력 관리 시스템 제안)

  • Kim, Bo-Min;Kim, Jeong-Young;Bang, Hyun-Jin;Jang, Min-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.871-874
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    • 2010
  • Needs for Smart Grid development are increasing all over the world as a solution to its problem according to depletion of energy resources, climatic and environmental rapidly change and growing demand for electrical power. Especially decentralized power is attracting world's attention. In this mood a new era for a unit scale of decentralized power environment is on its way in building. However there is a problem to have to be solved in the uniformity of power quality because the amount of power generated from renewable energy resources such as wind power and solar light is very sensitive to climate fluctuation. And thus this paper tries to suggest an energy management method on basis of real time monitoring for meteorological data. In the current situation of lacking in USN-based killer application in Smart Grid field, this paper proposes the USN-based DER management system which collects the meteorological data and control power system througout utilizing wireless sensor network technique this business. This communication technique is regarded to be efficient in aspects of installation cost and tits maintenance cost. The proposed EMS model embodies the method for predicting the power generation by monitoring and analyzing the climatic data and controling the efficient power distribution between the renewable energy and the existing power. The ultimate goal of this paper is to provide the technological basis for achieving zero-energy house.

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Environmental analysis and strategy to jointly host the 2027 Chungcheong Summer World University Games (2027 충청 하계세계대학경기대회 공동유치를 위한 환경분석 및 전략)

  • Lee, Jong-Hyun;Kim, Hwa-Ryong;Jeon, Sang-Wan
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.333-346
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    • 2022
  • This study proposes a strategy to attract visitors by analyzing the justification for hosting the 2027 Summer World University Games in Chungcheong, Korea, as well as by assessing the internal and external factors to promote regional development. Using Environmental Analysis as the diagnostic approach, we focus on strength/opportunity (SO), strength/threat (ST), weakness/opportunity (WO), and weakness/threat (WT) analyses. SO analysis show that a matching strategy of mid- to long-term cooperation among the four cities and provinces in Chungcheong and development of local sports by promoting its linkages to science, and industry offer best strategic use-value. ST analysis shows that optimal infrastructure development and establishment of competition management strategies in preparation for non-face-to-face engagement make balanced regional development possible. WO analysis shows the need for rearrangement and renovation of outdated sports facilities, development of programs linked to convergence sports tourism products, efficient and strategic attraction activities, and promoting sustainable development of bed town cities. WT analysis suggests that the imbalance in regional development due to expansion of sports facilities, insufficient cultural contents in tourism, and tourism demand fluctuation are potential problems. Follow-up studies can focus on deeper analysis of the possibility and attractiveness of hosting the Summer World University Games in Chungcheong, Korea using qualitative methods such as focus group interviews and in-depth interviews with stakeholders and local residents.

The Transition of Production, Consumption and Price of Non-ferrous Metals (비철금속(非鐵金屬)의 생산(生産), 소비(消費), 시세(時勢)의 추이(推移))

  • Moon, W.J.
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 1969
  • In considering the mining industry, it is necessary to study the production, consumption and price of ore and metals in every country of the world in order to determine the trend of the industry in the present and for the future. This study is necessary especially for exporting domestically produced are which is in excess of domestic consumption and for importing are, or metal where local production does not meet domestic demand. It will be treated of Au, Ag, Cu, Pb, Zn, W, Mo, which are the most important non-ferrous metals, and which greatly affect the mining industry of Korea. The presentation will concern itself only with the free world. About 1, 200 ton of gold are produced annually with little fluctiation in recent years. Most of the gold produced is consumed by advanced countries for industrial uses as well as for producing precious objects. The U.S.A. expends yearly about four times its domestic production and Japan about three times its domestic production for industry and arts. Because of the instability of the currency of the U.S.A., England and France, recently, the price of gold has been $ 41-42 per ounce, whereas the official price is $35.00 per ounce. It will be expected that the official price will be raised in the near future. As for silver, about 6,500 tons are produced annually with no special fluctuation change in recent years. However, the annual consumption is about 14,000 ton, so the supply and demand is extremely unbalanced. The shortage is made up by the sale of the U.S. treasury's reserve stock and the reclaiminig of silver from coins and other scrap. As the Treasury'S reserves will be exhausted in a year or two, the price of silver which is $1. 64 per ounce, will go up drastically in about a year. As for copper, 5,257,000 ton's were mined in 1966. It's production is being increased about 5% annually. However, consumption exceeds production by about 100,000 ton a year. The recent Foreign refinery copper price in the U.S.A is $ 60 per pound. The supply of copper being insufficient to meet international demands, the price will go up and with no prospect of being lowered in the near future even with the slight annual increase in production. About 2,100,000 to 2,200,000 tons of lead are produced annually. Consumption exceeds production by about 50,000-60,000 tons annually. The current price of lead in New York is $ 155 per pound. As the supply of lead is internationally stable, It will be believed that there will be no significant change in its price in the near future. In 1967, 3,926,000 tons of Zinc were produced. There is annual increase of 4-7% in production. The annual consumption exceeds production by 100,000 to 200,000 tons. The current zinc price in the St. Louis market inthe U.S.A. is $ 145 per pound. Even though its supply is stable and sufficient world wide, the consumption rate will increase at a faster pace than before; hence, the price will slowly go up. Tungsten mines yield about 11,000 tons a year. Its production has been relatively constant in the past few years. The amount of its consumption increases slowly world wide, but in the free world· there has been a slight annual decrease. However, since Red China has not been exporting their tungsten to other countries for several months, the price on the London market of S.T.U. of $Wo_3$ has increased to $ 44~46. Should Red China begin to export actively again the price will drop to $ 40~42. In 1967, 56,000 tons of Molybdenum were produced. Production exceeds consumption by 200,000 -30,000 tons annually. The current price in the U.S.A. is $ 1.72 per Mo pound. Since the rate of production in the U.S.A. is on the increase with large amounts of ore reserve, the price of molubdenum should not go up.

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A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.