• Title/Summary/Keyword: demand

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Forecasting Demand of Childcare Teachers using Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석을 통한 보육교사 수급 전망)

  • Lee, Mee Hwa;Park, Jinah;Kang, Eun Jin
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.123-137
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to forecast demand of childcare teachers based ion four different scenarios. In order to, the demand for childcare teachers from 2015 to 2024 were forecasted using time series techniques with data on the number of childcare teachers from 2003 to 2014. Results were as followings. Firstly, the demand for childcare teachers was expected to increase until 2019, but after 2020 steadily decreased in terms of scenario 1(child teacher ratio regulation). According to scenario 2(child teacher ratio based on 17 cities and provinces), the demand for childcare teachers was expected to need 440 teachers more until 2016. Then, according to scenario 3(two teachers each class), Scenario 4-1(one teacher and one staff each 2 toddler class and 3 older class) and scenario 4-2(one teacher and one staff each class), the demand of childcare teachers and staffs were estimated. These results implicated that childcare teachers and staffs supply policy would be established according to forecast demand.

생산현장에서 발생하는 불확실성을 고려한 생산통제기법들의 유용성 분석

  • 이장한;박진우
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.185-190
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    • 1993
  • In this paper, we investigate the effect of production uncertainty - especially demand fluctuation and activity time variation, to production control policies. First, we examine three famous production control policies, namely, MRP, JIT, OPT, from shop floor control perspective and analyze the difference among them. Based on these, simulation studies are performed to draw out the effects of demand fluctuation which are classified into demand lumpiness and demand irregularity, and, the effects of activity time variation which are classified into standard time variation and non-standard time variation. Experimental investigation shows that, in terms of demand fluctuations, MRP is affected by demand lumpiness, but JIT by demand irregularity. And we also see that both MRP and JIT are influenced by standard time variation with respect to activity time variations.

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State Transition Model of Demand Response Considering Behavior Patterns of Customer (소비자의 행동 패턴을 고려한 수요반응의 상태 천이 모델)

  • Kwag, Hyung-Geun;Lee, Na-Eun;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.8
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    • pp.1074-1079
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    • 2013
  • Demand response(DR) is potential generation alternative to improve the reliability indices of system and load points. However, when demand resources scheduled in DR market fail to reduce demand, it can create new problems associated with maintaining a reliable supply. In this paper, a reliability model of demand resource is constructed considering customers' behaviors in the same form as conventional generation units, where availability and unavailability are associated with the simple two-state model. As a result, the generalized reliability model of demand resources is represented by multi-state model.

Long Term Forecastig for Durable Goods by Cross Country Analysis Using Growth Curve (성장곡선을 이용한 횡단면 분석에 의한 내구재의 장기유요예측모형)

  • 정규석
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 1985
  • In this paper, the approach getting a total demand by forecasting the new demand and the replacement demand separately and adding them is used for long term forecasting of durable goods. Cross country analysis using the income as an independent variable and S-shaped growth curve as a fitting model is developed as a method of forecasting new demand. To get the replacement demand the methods using the number of ownership and the replacement rate and the methods using the past demand and the distribution of the product life are proposed. And the theoretical explannation for product life cycle's diversity, which is the one of the major considerations in the long term forecasting, is attempted by the combination of the new demand and the replacement demand patterns. This is applicated the long term forecasting of Korean passenger cars.

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The Technology of Peak Demand Reduction using Automatic Water Tank Pumping System on the Apartment And Analysis of Effect of Energy Cost (아파트 고가수조 자동급수장치를 이용한 전력피크 감소 및 전력시장에서의 효과 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Gul;Lee, Yun-Kyoung;Cho, Won-Woo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.161-163
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    • 2006
  • This paper introduce the technology of peak demand reduction using automatic water tank pumping system on the apartment. That systems on the apartments installed water tank can control pumping(electricity) demand. Generally, system peak demand is occurred at the same time on workday and many water pumps consume electric power randomly. At this point, shift of operating time of water pump can reduce peak demand using automatic water tank pumping system. We were operating this system on some apartments for test of effect of peak demand reduction. and we represent result of demand shift. This result suggests that spread of the automatic water pumping system can contribute to reduce system peak demand and reduce system operation cost.

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DEVELOPMENT OF A MAXIMUM DEMAND CONTROLLER USING FUZZY LOGIC (퍼지로직 알고리즘을 이용한 최대수요전력 제어기의 개발)

  • Han, Hong-Seok;Chung, Kee-Chul;Seong, Ki-Chul;Yoon, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1996.07b
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    • pp.778-780
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    • 1996
  • The predictive maximum demand controllers often bring about large number of control actions during the every integrating period and/or undesirable load-disconnecting operations during the begining stage if the integrating period. To solve these problems, a fuzzy predictive maximum demand control algorithm is proposed, which determines the sensitivity if control action by urgency if the load interrupting action along with the predicted demand reading to the target or the time arriving at the end stage if the integrating period. A prototype controller employing the proposed algorithm also is developed and its performances are tested by PROCOM SYSTEMS Corperation of Korea.

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Energy Demand Management Algoritm for Buildings and Application Procedure (건물군 에너지 수요관리 알고리즘 및 적용 절차)

  • Kim, Jeong-Uk
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents an advanced energy demand management for buildings. It is important to aggregate a various demand side resource which is controllable on demand response environment. Previous demand side algorithm for building is mostly restricted on single building. In this paper, we suggest energy demand management algorithm for many buildings. And, this paper shows the procedure to apply suggested demand management algorithm.

Social Welfare Analysis of Demand Response from the Viewpoint of Demand Function (수요함수 관점에서 해석한 수요반응의 사회적 후생 분석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Yang, Kwan-mo
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.23-26
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    • 2017
  • Social Welfare is useful concept for evaluating the effectiveness of an economic policy in micro economics. This paper focuses on Social Welfare(SW) of electricity market incorporating demand response(DR). Competition between DR and generation company is modeled as a simple bid function. DR function can be considered as an negative generation(called Negawatt) and as an element of modified demand function. These two approaches result in the same demand reduction, generation power, and the market price. However, SW in the modified demand function approach is not identical to SW in the Negawatt approach. It makes the numerical index of DR effectiveness less persuasive. This paper proposes modified definition of SW in the demand function approach. The proposed definition of SW leads the DR effectiveness index to be identical to that in the Negawatt approach.

Modeling Procedure to Adapt to Change of Trend of Water Demand: Application of Bayesian Parameter Estimation (물수요의 추세 변화의 적응을 위한 모델링 절차 제시:베이지안 매개변수 산정법 적용)

  • Lee, Sangeun;Park, Heekyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.241-249
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    • 2009
  • It is well known that the trend of water demand in large-size water supply systems has been suddenly changed, and many expansions of water supply facilities become unnecessary. To be cost-effective, thus, politicians as well as many professionals lay stress on the adaptive management of water supply facilities. Failure in adapting to the new trend of demand is sure to be the most critical reason of unnecessary expansions. Hence, we try to develop the model and modeling procedure that do not depend on the old data of demand, and provide engineers with the fast learning process. To forecast water demand of Seoul, the Bayesian parameter estimation was applied, which is a representative method for statistical pattern recognition. It results that we can get a useful time-series model after observing water demand during 6 years, although trend of water demand were suddenly changed.

The Relationship between Firefighters' Work Demand and Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders: The Moderating Role of Task Characteristics

  • Kodom-Wiredu, Justice K.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2019
  • Background: Emergency workers such as firefighters are cataloged within the most demanding and injurious professions globally. Considering the health and safety implications in firefighting, a lot of research needs to be conducted to examine how firefighters' task characteristics and their work demand influence the development of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). This study therefore examines how the task characteristics of firefighters moderates the relationship between their work demand and the development of WMSDs. Methods: Convenient sampling was employed to select 320 firefighters in the Greater Accra region of Ghana. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression. Results: The findings revealed that work demand and task characteristics have significant positive effects on WMSDs. Again, the task characteristics of firefighters moderates the relationship between their work demand and WMSDs. Conclusion: Since the study shows that task characteristics influences the relationship between work demand and WMSDs, it is vital for managers to constantly modify the nature of tasks performed by and work demand of emergency workers to minimize the development of WMSDs and other industrial health complications.