• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.31-39
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• 2014

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause 3 to 5 millions severe illness and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide each year. To prepare better controls on severe influenza epidemics, many studies have been proposed to achieve near real-time surveillance of the spread of influenza. Korea CDC publishes clinical data of influenza epidemics on a weekly basis typically with a 1-2-week reporting lag. To provide faster detection of epidemics, recently approaches using unofficial data such as news reports, social media, and search queries are suggested. Collection of such data is cheap in cost and is realized in near real-time. This research aims to develop regression models for early detecting the outbreak of the seasonal influenza epidemics in Korea with keyword query information provided from the Naver (Korean representative portal site) trend services for PC and mobile device. We selected 20 key words likely to have strong correlations with influenza-like illness (ILI) based on literature review and proposed a logistic regression model and a multiple regression model to predict the outbreak of ILI. With respect of model fitness, the multiple regression model shows better results than logistic regression model. Also we find that a mobile-based regression model is better than PC-based regression model in estimating ILI percentages.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.1095-1104
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• 2013

The number of vehicles registered in Korea is rapidly increasing and will reach 18.26 million as of June 2011. The rapid increase of large-size passenger cars and RVs among this number is causing damage to other vehicles when parked in currently installed parking lots, increased civil complaints from the damage, and inconveniences to people trying to pass through parking lots as well. In particular, the car-stoppers indiscriminately installed at the parking lots are also causing accidents and adding to parking problems, causing economic losses. Accordingly, there should be new regulations for the amount of parking space per vehicle and for locations to install the car-stoppers. The research has first reviewed the distribution ratio of vehicle models from home and abroad for the width and length of the vehicles by each model, parking space per vehicle where the car-stoppers are installed and examples of changes in distribution ratio. In addition, the amount of parking space per vehicle was calculated with consideration for various specifications by each car model. As a result, margin width of full sized car is decreased by 18~21mm on the existing width. This is judged decreases accident of parking lot, because length of the front of car is not deviate parking Space Section. In conclusion, presented improvement ideas for parking plans with enhanced convenience and safety from the aspect of the drivers. Parking lot relevant businesses will also be maximized in terms of cost and efficiency when the criteria for the structure of parking lots and their installation is established and the improved parking plan is applied in the future.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.121-128
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• 2010

This study aims to make improvements to the standard estimation process used to estimate reasonable costs for construction work, and to suggest a work crew based estimation using a new cost estimation model. In addition, work crew shift combination and construction process were systematically organized in order to improve the estimation technique and the construction capability of the cement liquid waterproofing work for apartment buildings. In addition, in terms of manpower and productivity, analyses were performed on the cement liquid waterproofing work for apartment buildings with net areas between $84-85m^2$ and $125-184m^2$, and the results were then compared with those calculated using the conventional work-crew based estimation method. Through this study, when the results of this study and those calculated by the conventional method were compared, for apartments with the net area of $84-85m^2$, the differences between specialists were shown to be 1.91 times to 2.13 times on average, while they were 8.82 times to 9.52 times between normal workers on average. For apartments with the net area of $125-184m^2$, the differences betweenspecialists were shownto be 1.89 times to 2.07 times on average, and 8.57 times to 9.38 times on average between normal workers.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.56-65
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• 2016

Many cases have mentioned the effect by applying BIM on the media such as at conferences, workshops, reports, ect. These cases reported that costs could be saved directly by prevention the need to re-do and reconstruct caused by using BIM. BIM users mentioned that using BIM has potential value in saving costs. The benefits of the BIM include intangible value that cannot be estimated in costs, such as reducing work time and improving productivity. However, the financial value of using BIM, such as Return on Investment, has not yet been exposed, and BIM users have a negative view of the financial value of BIM in Korea. Therefore, this study has researched the effects of applying BIM on construction estimate services in view of business productivity, not finance. This study compared the traditional and BIM based estimation, and verified the effect of estimating BIM through work sampling. This study investigated a precondition for getting the effects of BIM based estimation. The results show a need for BIM education, 3D Modeling standards, and database on quantity in order to improve product ivity and reduce work time on BIM based estimation

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.390-398
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• 2020

To solve the problem of frequent component failure in guided weapons, a process of component failure in developed countries was investigated and analyzed. The suitability of component control, including risk assessment, analysis of operational impact, and the establishment of response measures, was also demonstrated. In addition, the economic effects of component control were presented by estimating the costs incurred if component control is performed in advance, after-sales, and non-management. DMSMS problems refer to losses or impending losses of an item, raw material, or software manufacturer or supplier. A problem with the discontinuation of parts occurs when the manufacturer or supplier ceases to produce and support the necessary parts, materials, or software, or when the supply of raw materials is no longer possible. Hence, it is important to recognize that failure to all parts of the system can occur.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.35-45
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• 2018

PURPOSES : This study examines the performance changes of road networks according to the strength of a disaster, and proposes a method for estimating the quantitative resilience according to the road-network performance changes and damage scale. This study also selected high-influence road sections, according to disasters targeting the road network, and aimed to analyze their hazard resilience from the network aspect through a scenario analysis of the damage recovery after a disaster occurred. METHODS : The analysis was conducted targeting Sejong City in South Korea. The disaster situation was set up using the TransCAD and VISSIM traffic-simulation software. First, the study analyzed how road-network damage changed the user's travel pattern and travel time, and how it affected the complete network. Secondly, the functional aspects of the road networks were analyzed using quantitative resilience. Finally, based on the road-network performance change and resilience, priority-management road sections were selected. RESULTS : According to the analysis results, when a road section has relatively low connectivity and low traffic, its effect on the complete network is insignificant. Moreover, certain road sections with relatively high importance can suffer a performance loss from major damage, for e.g., sections where bridges, tunnels, or underground roads are located, roads where no bypasses exist or they exist far from the concerned road, including entrances and exits to suburban areas. Relatively important roads have the potential to significantly degrade the network performance when a disaster occurs. Because of the high risk of delays or isolation, they may lead to secondary damage. Thus, it is necessary to manage the roads to maintain their performance. CONCLUSIONS : As a baseline study to establish measures for traffic prevention, this study considered the performance of a road network, selected high-influence road sections within the road network, and analyzed the quantitative resilience of the road network according to scenarios. The road users' passage-pattern changes were analyzed through simulation analysis using the User Equilibrium model. Based on the analysis results, the resilience in each scenario was examined and compared. Sections where a road's performance loss had a significant influence on the network were targeted. The study results were judged to become basic research data for establishing response plans to restore the original functions and performance of the destroyed and damage road networks, and for selecting maintenance priorities.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.119-123
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• 2012

Although LNG storage tanks are very delicate with chloride attack owing to its operating inshore location, specific integrity management system for chloride attack has not been studied so far. As the design warranty life time, about 25 years, has come, to prevent paying huge amount of construction cost and required resources for new alternative storage tanks and manage the life time of operating storage tanks, the basic data of chloride attack is necessary. This study intended to build up basic data for following detailed study to develop technologies for life time management of LNG storage tanks, NT Build 492 method in North Europe was used to test chloride diffusion coefficient for the newly-constructing concrete outer tank. Results of these tests lead us to the conclusion that 90 days diffusion coefficients show 46% of 28 days' due to a large quantity of fly ash mixing and much similar to estimation from concrete process table. It seems resonable to conclude that 90 days specimens are recommended estimating the chloride diffusion coefficient for LNG storage tanks to enhance the reliabilities.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.393-404
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• 2015

Gravity model has had the major problem that the model explains the characteristics of travel behavior with only deterrence factors such as travel time or cost. In modern society, travel behavior can be affected not only deterrence factors but also zonal characteristics or transportation service. Therefore, those features have to be considered to estimate the future travel demand accurately. In this regard, there are two primary aims of this study: 1. to identify the characteristics of inter-zonal travel, 2. to develop the new type of calibration method. By employing accessibility variable which can explain the manifold pattern of trip, we define the zonal travel behavior newly. Furthermore, we suggest 2-phase calibration method, since existing calibration method cannot find the optimum solution when organizing the deterrence function with the new variables. The new method proceeds with 2 steps; step 1.estimating deterrence parameter, step 2. finding balancing factors. The validation results with RMSE, E-norm, C.R show that this study model explains the inter-zonal travel pattern adequately and estimate the O/D pairs precisely than existing gravity model. Especially, the problem with estimation of short distance trip is overcomed. In conclusion, it is possible to draw the conclusion that this study suggests the possibility of improvement for trip distribution model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.31-40
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• 2009

Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.258-263
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• 2013

The primary goal of this study was to compute sample sizes required to achieve the each aim of a variety of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) surveillance programs, using a statistically valid technique that takes the following factors into account: sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of diagnostic test system, desired minimum detectable prevalence, precision, population size, and desired power of the survey. In addition, sample sizes to detect FMD if the disease is present and also as proof of freedom were computed. The current FMD active surveillance programs consist of clinical, virological, and serological surveillance. For the 2012 serological surveillance, annual sample sizes (n = 265,065) are planned at four separate levels: statistical (n = 60,884) and targeted (n = 115,232) at breeding pig farms and slaughter house, in together with the detection of structural proteins (SP) antibodies against FMD (n = 88,949). Overall, the sample size was not designed taking the specific aims of each surveillance stream into account. The sample sizes for statistical surveillance, assuming stratified two-stage sampling technique, was based to detect at least one FMD-infected case in the general population. The resulting sample size can be used to obtain evidence of freedom from FMD infection, not for detecting animals that have antibodies against FMD virus non-structural proteins (NSP). Additionally, sample sizes for targeted surveillance were not aimed for the population at risk, and also without consideration of statistical point of view. To at least the author's knowledge, sampling plan for targeted, breeding pig farms and slaughter house is not necessary and need to be included in the part of statistical surveillance. Assuming design prevalence of 10% in an infinite population, a total of 29 animals are required to detect at least one positive with probability of 95%, using perfect diagnostic test system (Se = Sp = 100%). A total of 57,211 animals needed to be sampled to give 95% confidence of estimating SP prevalence of 80% at the individual animal-level with a precision of ${\pm}5%$, assuming 800 herds with an average 200 heads per farm, within-farm variance of 0.2, between-farm variance of 0.05, cost ratio of 100:1 of farm against animals. Furthermore, 779,736 animals were required to demonstrate FMD freedom, and the sample size can further be reduced depending on the parameters assumed.