Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Development and Implementation of a 2-Phase Calibration Method for Gravity Model Considering Accessibility

접근성 지표를 도입한 중력모형의 2단계 정산기법 개발 및 적용

  • CHOI, Sung Taek (Graduate School of Urban & Real Estate, Hanyang University) ;
  • RHO, Jeong Hyun (Graduate School of Urban & Real Estate, Hanyang University)
  • 최성택 (한양대학교 도시대학원) ;
  • 노정현 (한양대학교 도시대학원)
  • Received : 2015.03.17
  • Accepted : 2015.07.02
  • Published : 2015.08.31
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Abstract

Gravity model has had the major problem that the model explains the characteristics of travel behavior with only deterrence factors such as travel time or cost. In modern society, travel behavior can be affected not only deterrence factors but also zonal characteristics or transportation service. Therefore, those features have to be considered to estimate the future travel demand accurately. In this regard, there are two primary aims of this study: 1. to identify the characteristics of inter-zonal travel, 2. to develop the new type of calibration method. By employing accessibility variable which can explain the manifold pattern of trip, we define the zonal travel behavior newly. Furthermore, we suggest 2-phase calibration method, since existing calibration method cannot find the optimum solution when organizing the deterrence function with the new variables. The new method proceeds with 2 steps; step 1.estimating deterrence parameter, step 2. finding balancing factors. The validation results with RMSE, E-norm, C.R show that this study model explains the inter-zonal travel pattern adequately and estimate the O/D pairs precisely than existing gravity model. Especially, the problem with estimation of short distance trip is overcomed. In conclusion, it is possible to draw the conclusion that this study suggests the possibility of improvement for trip distribution model.

기존의 중력모형은 통행비용 변수만으로 존 간 특성을 설명하기 때문에 많은 한계점을 갖게 된다. 현대 도시의 통행 패턴은 거리나 비용뿐만이 아니라 존 별 특성과 교통인프라 수준 등의 영향을 받기 때문이다. 따라서 장래 통행을 합리적으로 추정하기 위해서는 이러한 특성을 고려한 모형이 개발되어야 한다. 본 연구는 이러한 관점에서 접근성 변수를 중력모형의 설명 변수로 도입하였다. 이와 함께 변수가 추가에 따른 2단계 정산기법을 제안하였다. 이는 통행저항함수의 계수를 회귀분석을 통해 우선 추정한 뒤, 존별 균형인자를 순차적으로 추정하는 방법이다. RMSE, E-norm, C.R을 활용한 접근성을 도입한 중력모형의 검증 결과, 기존의 중력모형보다 통행패턴의 구현 능력이 향상된 점을 확인하였다. 특히, 단거리 통행량 추정에 어려움을 겪은 기존 모형의 한계점을 해결하였다는 점이 주목할 만 하다. 결론적으로 본 연구는 새로운 중력모형의 정산기법을 제안함과 동시에 접근성 변수의 도입을 통해 존 간 특성을 구현하였다는 점에서 통행분포모형의 개선 가능성을 제시하였다.

Keywords

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