• Title/Summary/Keyword: controlling policy

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The Effect of Social Relationship Satisfaction on Subjective Happiness of Middle-Aged Single-Person Households in Low-Income Families: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Depression and Gender Differences (저소득층 중·장년 1인 가구의 사회적 관계 만족도가 주관적 행복감에 미치는 영향: 우울감의 매개효과 및 성별 차이를 중심으로)

  • Su-Yeol Yoo;Ouk-Sun Cho
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of social relations satisfaction of low-income middle-aged and elderly single-person households on individual subjective happiness and to verify the mediating effect of depression and gender control to provide basic data for the development of related policies and programs. The SPSS WIN 25.0 program used frequency analysis, technical statistics analysis, correlation analysis, and PROCESS MACRO Model Number 4 to verify the mediating effect of 482 middle-aged singleperson households extracted using the "17th Korea Welfare Panel in 2022" survey data. In addition, the control effect was verified using PROCESS MACRO Model Number 1. The results of the study first showed that social relationship satisfaction after controlling demographic characteristics had a positive effect on subjective happiness. Second, it was found that depression had a partial mediating effect in the relationship between social relationship satisfaction and subjective happiness. Third, it was found that the higher the satisfaction level of social relationships among women than men, the greater the sense of happiness. Through this study, it is meaningful in that it identified the meaning of social relationships of middle-aged and elderly single-person households and presented practical implications so that they can be used as basic data for policy support measures.

Evaluation of Fish Acute Toxicity and Preliminary Risk Assessment of Plant Extracts, Sophora, Neem and Derris (유기농업자재 고삼, 님 및 데리스 추출물의 어류에 대한 독성과 위해성 평가)

  • Park, Kyung-Hun;Oh, Jin-A;Paik, Min-Kyoung;Son, Mi-Yeon;Lim, Joung-Taek;Jin, Jung-hwa;Hong, Soonsung;Cho, Nam-jun;Han, Sang-Gyun;Kim, Byung-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.255-263
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    • 2015
  • Promoting the organic farming, much of the plant extracts used for controlling pests and fungi have been imported from China, India and Myanmar. But, it is so worrisome that aquatic animals such as muddy loach inhabiting in paddy field and common carps in river exposed to the pests and fungi likely be harmed. This study was conducted in order to evaluate the risks of aquatic animals influenced by the three plant extracts, i.e. Sophora flavescens, Azadirachta indica and Derris elliptica. The toxicities of common carp (Cyprinus Carpio), muddy loach (Misgurnus anguillicaudatus) and PEC (Predicted environmental concentration) exposed to the three plant extracts were estimated by the typical spray volume method. Risks were determined by the toxicity value as 48-hr $LC_{50}$ (Lethal concentration, median) or NOEC (No observed effect concentration) into PEC. 48-hr $LC_{50}$ of Common carp and NOEC by Sophora flavescens extracts was 7.9 and 6.2 mg/L, 26.8 and 21.8 mg/L by Azadirachta indica extracts and 47.0 and < 24.0 mg/L by Derris elliptica extracts, respectively. 48-hr $LC_{50}$ of Muddy loach and NOEC by Sophora flavescens extracts was 16.9 and 10.0 mg/L, 35.6 and 30.0 mg/L by Azadirachta indica extracts, and 73.9 and < 40 mg/L by Derris elliptica extracts, respectively. Therefore, acute toxicities of the three plant extracts for aquatic animals were proved to be very low level. PEC of Sophora flavescens extracts in paddy, drainage and river water was 68.0~3.0, 11.33~0.50 and 3.0~0.0018 mg/L, respectively. TER of Sophora flavescens extracts in the three water was 0.2~5.6, 1.5~33.8 and 2.6~4388.9, respectively. PEC of Azadirachta indica extracts in paddy, drainage and river water was 90.9~1.2, 15.2~0.2 and 4.8~0.00075 mg/L, respectively. TER of Azadirachta indica extracts in the three water was 0.4~29.7, 2.3~178.0 and 4.5~35733.3, respectively. PEC of Derris elliptica extracts in river water was 0.0063 mg/L. TER of Derris elliptica extracts in river water was 5222~15667.

Development of Korean Green Business/IT Strategies Based on Priority Analysis (한국의 그린 비즈니스/IT 실태분석을 통한 추진전략 우선순위 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Choi, Ju-Choel;Choi, Il-Young
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.191-204
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    • 2010
  • Recently, the CO2 emission and energy consumption have become critical global issues to decide the future of nations. Especially, the spread of IT products and the increased use of internet and web applications result in the energy consumption and CO2 emission of IT industry though information technologies drive global economic growth. EU, the United States, Japan and other developed countries are using IT related environmental regulations such as WEEE(Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment), RoHS(Restriction of the use of Certain Hazardous Substance), REACH(Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of CHemicals) and EuP(Energy using Product), and have established systematic green business/IT strategies to enhance the competitiveness of IT industry. For example, the Japan government proposed the "Green IT initiative" for being compatible with economic growth and environmental protection. Not only energy saving technologies but energy saving systems have been developed for accomplishing sustainable development. Korea's CO2 emission and energy consumption continuously have grown at comparatively high rates. They are related to its industrial structure depending on high energy-consuming industries such as iron and steel Industry, automotive industry, shipbuilding industry, semiconductor industry, and so on. In particular, export proportion of IT manufacturing is quite high in Korea. For example, the global market share of the semiconductor such as DRAM was about 80% in 2008. Accordingly, Korea needs to establish a systematic strategy to respond to the global environmental regulations and to maintain competitiveness in the IT industry. However, green competitiveness of Korea ranked 11th among 15 major countries and R&D budget for green technology is not large enough to develop energy-saving technologies for infrastructure and value chain of low-carbon society though that grows at high rates. Moreover, there are no concrete action plans in Korea. This research aims to deduce the priorities of the Korean green business/IT strategies to use multi attribute weighted average method. We selected a panel of 19 experts who work at the green business related firms such as HP, IBM, Fujitsu and so on, and selected six assessment indices such as the urgency of the technology development, the technology gap between Korea and the developed countries, the effect of import substitution, the spillover effect of technology, the market growth, and the export potential of the package or stand-alone products by existing literature review. We submitted questionnaires at approximately weekly intervals to them for priorities of the green business/IT strategies. The strategies broadly classify as follows. The first strategy which consists of the green business/IT policy and standardization, process and performance management and IT industry and legislative alignment relates to government's role in the green economy. The second strategy relates to IT to support environment sustainability such as the travel and ways of working management, printer output and recycling, intelligent building, printer rationalization and collaboration and connectivity. The last strategy relates to green IT systems, services and usage such as the data center consolidation and energy management, hardware recycle decommission, server and storage virtualization, device power management, and service supplier management. All the questionnaires were assessed via a five-point Likert scale ranging from "very little" to "very large." Our findings show that the IT to support environment sustainability is prior to the other strategies. In detail, the green business /IT policy and standardization is the most important in the government's role. The strategies of intelligent building and the travel and ways of working management are prior to the others for supporting environment sustainability. Finally, the strategies for the data center consolidation and energy management and server and storage virtualization have the huge influence for green IT systems, services and usage This research results the following implications. The amount of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of IT equipment including electrical business equipment will need to be clearly indicated in order to manage the effect of green business/IT strategy. And it is necessary to develop tools that measure the performance of green business/IT by each step. Additionally, intelligent building could grow up in energy-saving, growth of low carbon and related industries together. It is necessary to expand the affect of virtualization though adjusting and controlling the relationship between the management teams.

Analysis of Building Characteristics and Temporal Changes of Fire Alarms (건물 특성과 시간적 변화가 소방시설관리시스템의 화재알람에 미치는 영향 분석 연구)

  • Lim, Gwanmuk;Ko, Seoltae;Kim, Yoosin;Park, Keon Chul
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study to find the factors influencing the fire alarms using IoT firefighting facility management system data of Seoul Fire & Disaster Headquarters, and to present academic implications for establishing an effective prevention system of fire situation. As the number of high and complex buildings increases and former bulidings are advanced, the fire detection facilities that can quickly respond to emergency situations are also increasing. However, if the accuracy of the fire situation is incorrectly detected and the accuracy is lowered, the inconvenience of the residents increases and the reliability decreases. Therefore, it is necessary to improve accuracy of the system through efficient inspection and the internal environment investigation of buildings. The purpose of this study is to find out that false detection may occur due to building characteristics such as usage or time, and to aim of emphasizing the need for efficient system inspection and controlling the internal environment. As a result, it is found that the size(total area) of the building had the greatest effect on the fire alarms, and the fire alarms increased as private buildings, R-type receivers, and a large number of failure or shutoff days. In addition, factors that influencing fire alarms were different depending on the main usage of the building. In terms of time, it was found to follow people's daily patterns during weekdays(9 am to 6 pm), and each peaked around 10 am and 2 pm. This study was claimed that it is necessary to investigate the building environment that caused the fire alarms, along with the system internal inspection. Also, it propose additional recording of building environment data in real-time for follow-up research and system enhancement.

Operative Challenges in Releasing Administrative Information and Records (행정정보 및 보존기록물 공개의 운영과제)

  • Lee, Won-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.12
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    • pp.81-135
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    • 2005
  • The release of administrative information has been the challenge of our age following the maturation of democratic ideology in our society. However, differences of opinion and conflict still exist between the government and private sectors regarding the issue, and it seems that the technical and policy-related insufficiencies of information and record management that actually operate the release of information are the main causes. From the perspective of records management, records or information are variable in their nature, value, and influence during their life span. The most controversial issue is the records and information in the current stage of carrying out business activities. This is because the records and information pertaining to finished business are but evidence to ascertain the past, and have only a limited relationship to the ideal of the 'democratic participation' by citizens in activities of the public sector. The current information release policies are helpless against the 'absence of information,' or incomplete records, but such weakness can be supplemented by enforcing record management policies that make obligatory the recording of all details of business activities. In addition, it is understood that the installation of 'document offices("Jaryogwan")' that can manage each organization's information and records will be an important starting point to integrate the release, management, and preservation of information and records. Nevertheless, it seems that the concept of 'release' in information release policies refers not to free use by all citizens but is limited to the 'provision' of records according to public requests, and the concept of 'confidential' refers not to treating documents with total secrecy but varies according to the particulars of each situation, making the actual practice of information release difficult. To solve such problems, it is absolutely necessary to collect the opinions of various constituents associated with the recorded information in question, and to effectively mediate the collective opinions and the information release requests coming from applicants, to carry out the business more practically. Especially crucial is the management of the process by which the nature and influence of recorded information changes, so that information which has to be confidential at first may become available for inquiry and use over time through appropriate procedures. Such processes are also part of the duties that record management, which is in charge of the entire life span of documents, must perform. All created records will be captured within a record management system, and the record creation data thus collected will be used as a guide for inquiry and usage. With 'document offices(Jaryogwan)' and 'archives' controlling the entire life span of records, the release of information will become simpler and more widespread. It is undesirable to try to control only through information release policies those records the nature of which has changed because, unlike the ones still in the early stages of their life span and can directly influence business activities, their work has finished, and they have become historical records or evidences pointing to the truth of past events. Even in the past, when there existed no formal policy regarding the release of administrative information, the access and use of archival records were permitted. A more active and expanded approach must be taken regarding the 'usage' of archival records. If the key factor regarding 'release' lies in the provision of information, the key factor regarding 'usage' lies in the quality and level of the service provided. The full-scale usage of archival records must be preceded by the release of such records, and accordingly, a thorough analysis of the nature, content, and value of the records and their changes must be implemented to guarantee the release of information before their use is requested. That must become a central task of document offices and "Today's information" will soon become "yesterday's records," and the "reality" of today will become "history" of the past. The policies of information release and record management share information records as their common objective. As they have a mutual relationship that is supplementary and leads toward perfection, the two policies must both be differentiated and integrated with each another. It is hoped that the policies and business activities of record management will soon become normalized and reformed for effective and fair release of information.

A Study on Differences of Opinions on Home Health Care Program among Physicians, Nurses, Non-medical personnel, and Patients. (가정간호 사업에 대한 의사, 간호사, 진료관련부서 직원 및 환자의 인식 비교)

  • Kim, Y.S.;Lim, Y.S.;Chun, C.Y.;Lee, J.J.;Park, J.W.
    • The Korean Nurse
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.48-65
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    • 1990
  • The government has adopted a policy to introduce Home Health Care Program, and has established a three stage plan to implement it. The three stage plan is : First, to amend Article 54 (Nurses for Different Types of Services) of the Regulations for Implementing the Law of Medical Services; Second, to tryout the new system through pilot projects established in public hospitals and clinics; and third, to implement at all hospitals and equivalent medical institutions. In accordance with the plan, the Regulation has been amend and it was promulgated on January 9,1990, thus establishing a legal ground for implementing the policy. Subsequently, however, the Medical Association raised its objection to the policy, causing a delay in moving into the second stage of the plan. Under these circumstances, a study was conducted by collecting and evaluating the opinions of physicians, nurses, non-medical personnel and patients on the need and expected result from the home health care for the purpose of help facilitating the implementation of the new system. As a result of this study, it was revealed that: 1. Except the physicians, absolute majority of all other three groups - nurses, non-medical personnel and patients -gave positive answers to all 11 items related to the need for establishing a program for Home Health Care. Among the physicians, the opinions on the need for the new services were different depending on their field of specialty, and those who have been treating long term patients were more positive in supporting the new system. 2. The respondents in all four groups held very positive view for the effectiveness and the expected result of the program. The composite total of scores for all of 17 items, however, re-veals that the physicians were least positive for the- effectiveness of the new system. The people in all four groups held high expectation on the system on the ground that: it will help continued medical care after the discharge from hospitals; that it will alleviate physical and economic burden of patient's family; that it will offer nursing services at home for the patients who are suffering from chronic disease, for those early discharge from hospital, or those who are without family members to look after the patients at home. 3. Opinions were different between patients( who will receive services) and nurses (who will provide services) on the types of services home visiting nurses should offer. The patients wanted "education on how to take care patients at home", "making arrangement to be admitted into hospital when need arises", "IV injection", "checking blood pressure", and "administering medications." On the other hand, nurses believed that they can offer all 16 types of services except "Controlling pain of patients", 4. For the question of "what types of patients are suitable for Home Health Care Program; " the physicians, the nurses and non-medical personnel all gave high score on the cases of "patients of chronic disease", "patients of old age", "terminal cases", and the "patients who require long-term stay in hospital". 5. On the question of who should control Home Health Care Program, only physicians proposed that it should be done through hospitals, while remaining three groups recommended that it should be done through public institutions such as public health center. 6. On the question of home health care fee, the respondents in all four groups believed that the most desireable way is to charge a fixed amount of visiting fee plus treatment service fee and cost of material. 7. In the case when the Home Health Care Program is to be operated through hospitals, it is recommended that a new section be created in the out-patient department for an exclusive handling of the services, instead of assigning it to an existing section. 8. For the qualification of the nurses for-home visiting, the majority of respondents recommended that they should be "registered nurses who have had clinical experiences and who have attended training courses for home health care". 9. On the question of if the program should be implemented; 74.0% of physicians, 87.5% of non-medical personnel, and 93.0% of nurses surveyed expressed positive support. 10. Among the respondents, 74.5% of -physicians, 81.3% of non-medical personnel and 90.9% of nurses said that they would refer patients' to home health care. 11. To the question addressed to patients if they would take advantage of home health care; 82.7% said they would if the fee is applicable to the Health Insurance, and 86.9% said they would follow advises of physicians in case they were decided for early discharge from hospitals. 12. While 93.5% of nurses surveyed had heard about the Home Health Care Program, only 38.6% of physicians surveyed, 50.9% of non-medical personnel, and 35.7% of patients surveyed had heard about the program. In view of above findings, the following measures are deemed prerequisite for an effective implementation of Home Health Care Program. 1. The fee for home health care to be included in the public health insurance. 2. Clearly define the types and scope of services to be offered in the Home Health Care Program. 3. Develop special programs for training nurses who will be assigned to the Home Health Care Program. 4. Train those nurses by consigning them at hospitals and educational institutions. 5. Government conducts publicity campaign toward the public and the hospitals so that the hospitals support the program and patients take advantage of them. 6. Systematic and effective publicity and educational programs for home heath care must be developed and exercises for the people of medical professions in hospitals as well as patients and their families. 7. Establish and operate pilot projects for home health care, to evaluate and refine their programs.

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Comparison Study of Water Tension and Content Characteristics in Differently Textured Soils under Automatic Drip Irrigation (자동점적관수에 의한 토성별 수분함량 및 장력 변화특성 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hak-Jin;Ahn, Sung-Wuk;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Choi, Jin-Yong;Chung, Sun-Ok;Roh, Mi-Young;Hur, Seung-Oh
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.341-348
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    • 2013
  • Maintenance of adequate soil tension or content during the period of crop growth is necessary to support optimum plant growth and yields. A better understanding of soil tension and content for precision irrigation would allow optimal soil water condition to crops and minimize the adverse effects of water stress on crop growth and development. This research reports on a comparison of soil water tension and content variations in differently textured soils over time under drip irrigation using two different water management methods, i.e. pulse time and required water irrigation methods. The pulse time-based irrigation was performed by turning the solenoid valve on and off for preset times to allow the wetting front to disperse in root zone before additional water was applied. The required water estimation method was a new water control logic designed by Rural Development Administration that applies the amount of water required based on a conversion of the measured water tension into water content. The use of the pulse time irrigation method under drip irrigation at a high tension of -20 kPa and high temperatures over $30^{\circ}C$ was not successful at maintaining moisture tensions within an appropriate range of 5 kPa because the preset irrigation times used for water control could not compensate for the change in evapotranspiration during day and night. The response time and pattern of water contents for all of the tested soils measured with capacitance-based sensor probes were faster and more direct than those of water tensions measured with porous and ceramic cup-based tensiometers when water was applied, indicating water content would be a better control variable for automatic irrigation. The required water estimation-based irrigation method provided relatively stable control of moisture tension, even though somewhat lower tension values were obtained as compared to the target tension of -20 kPa, indicating that growers could expect to be effective in controlling low tensions ranging from -10 to -20 kPa with the required water estimation system.

Biological Control of Garlic Blue Mold using Pantoea agglomerans S59-4 (Pantoea agglomerans S59-4를 이용한 마늘 푸른곰팡이병의 생물학적 방제)

  • Kim, Yong-Ki;Hong, Sung-Jun;Jee, Hyung-Jin;Park, Jong-Ho;Han, Eun-Jung;Park, Kyung-Seok;Lee, Sang-Yeob;Lee, Seong-Don
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.148-156
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    • 2010
  • S59-4 isolate was evaluated as a potential biocontrol agent using in vivo wounded garlic bulb assay. When the spore suspension ($10^5$ spores/$m\ell$) of Penicillium hirsutum was co-inoculated with cell suspension of S59-4 isolate on wounded garlics, the isolate showed high suppressive effect to disease development. The isolate was identified as Pantoea agglomerans S59-4(Pa59-4) through Biolog system. Furthermore, soaking garlic bulbs in the suspension of Pa59-4 significantly reduced garlic decay caused by P. hirsutum. The optimal concentration of Pa59-4 for controlling garlic blue mold was $10^7\sim10^8$ cfu/$m\ell$. And suppressive effect of Pa59-4 on garlic storage decay reduced as inoculation concentration of Penicillium hirsutum increased. In addition in order to investigate population dynamics of Pa59-4 on application site of garlic cloves, two antibiotic markers, pimaricin and vancomycin were selected. Bacterial density of Pa59-4 on the wounded garlic cloves increased continuously both under room temperature condition and low temperature condition until 30days after application of Pa59-4, meanwhile that of Pa59-4 on intact garlic cloves increased until 15days after application of Pa59-4 and thereafter decreased continuously. Two culture media for mass-production of Pa59-4, LB medium and TSB medium, were selected. By-product of bio-fungicide formulated by mixing white carbon and bacterial suspension of Pa59-4 suppressed by 40 to 50% garlic blue mold. Above results suggest that Pa59-4 be a promising control agent against garlic blue mold.

Estimation and Mapping of Methane Emissions from Rice Paddies in Korea: Analysis of Regional Differences and Characteristics (전국 논에서 발생하는 메탄 배출량의 산정 및 지도화: 지역 격차 및 특성 분석)

  • Choi, Sung-Won;Kim, Joon;Kang, Minseok;Lee, Seung Hoon;Kang, Namgoo;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.88-100
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    • 2018
  • Methane emissions from rice paddies are the largest source of greenhouse gases in the agricultural sector, but there are significant regional differences depending on the surrounding conditions and cultivation practices. To visualize these differences and to analyze their causes and characteristics, the methane emissions from each administrative district in South Korea were calculated according to the IPCC guidelines using the data from the 2010 Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Census, and then the results were mapped by using the ArcGIS. The nationwide average of methane emissions per unit area was $380{\pm}74kg\;CH_4\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$. The western region showed a trend toward higher values than the eastern region. One of the major causes resulting in such regional differences was the $SF_o$ (scaling factor associated with the application of organic matter), where the number of cultivation days played an important role to either offset or deepen the differences. Comparison of our results against the actual methane emissions data observed by eddy covariance flux measurement in the three KoFlux rice paddy sites in Gimje, Haenam and Cheorwon showed some differences but encouraging results with a difference of 10 % or less depending on the sites and years. Using the updated GWP (global warming potential) value of 28, the national total methane emission in 2010 was estimated to be $8,742,000tons\;CO_2eq$ - 13% lower than that of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report (i.e., $10,048,000tons\;CO_2eq$). The administrative districts-based map of methane emissions developed in this study can help identify the regional differences, and the analysis of their key controlling factors will provide important scientific basis for the practical policy makings for methane mitigation.

The Macroeconomic Impacts of Korean Elections and Their Future Consequences (선거(選擧)의 거시경제적(巨視經濟的) 충격(衝擊)과 파급효과(波及效果))

  • Shim, Sang-dal;Lee, Hang-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 1992
  • This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

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