• Title/Summary/Keyword: confidence probability

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A probabilistic seismic demand model for required separation distance of adjacent structures

  • Rahimi, Sepideh;Soltani, Masoud
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2022
  • Regarding the importance of seismic pounding, the available standards and guidelines specify minimum separation distance between adjacent buildings. However, the rules in this field are generally based on some simple assumptions, and the level of confidence is uncertain. This is attributed to the fact that the relative response of adjacent structures is strongly dependent on the frequency content of the applied records and the Eigen frequencies of the adjacent structures as well. Therefore, this research aims at investigating the separation distance of the buildings through a probabilistic-based algorithm. In order to empower the algorithm, the record-to-record uncertainties, are considered by probabilistic approaches; besides, a wide extent of material nonlinear behaviors can be introduced into the structural model by the implementation of the hysteresis Bouc-Wen model. The algorithm is then simplified by the application of the linearization concept and using the response acceleration spectrum. By implementing the proposed algorithm, the separation distance in a specific probability level can be evaluated without the essential need of performing time-consuming dynamic analyses. Accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated using nonlinear dynamic analyses of adjacent structures.

OPTICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE CRAB PULSAR: SIMULTANEOUS UBVR LIGHT CURVES WITH TIME RESOLUTION OF 3.3 ${\mu}s$ AND SPECTROSCOPY

  • KOMAROVA V. N.;BESKIN G. M.;NEUSTROEV V. V.;PLOKHOTNICHENKO V. L.
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.29 no.spc1
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    • pp.217-218
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    • 1996
  • The results of the Crab pulsar observations with the photometrical MANIA (Multichannel Analysis of Nanosecond Intensity Alterations) complex at the 6-m telescope are presented. More than 12 millions photons in UBVR-bands simultaneously with time resolution of $10^{-7}s$ were detected. Using the original software for search for optical pulsar period, we obtained the light curves of the object with time resolution of about 3.3 ${\mu}s$. Their detailed analysis gives the spectral change during pulse and subpulse, the shape of the pulse peaks, which are plateaus (with the duration of about 50${\mu}s$ for the main pulse), limits for an amplitude of fine temporal (stochastic and regular) structure of pulse and sub pulse and the interpulse space intensity. The results of CCD-spectroscopy of the Crab pulsar show that its summarized spectrum is flat. There are no lines, neither emission nor absorbtion ones. Upper limit for line intensity or depth is $3.5\%$ with the confidence probability of $95\%$.

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Effect of slab stiffness on floor response spectrum and fragility of equipment in nuclear power plant building

  • Yousang Lee;Ju-Hyung Kim;Hong-Gun Park
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.3956-3972
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    • 2023
  • The floor response spectrum (FRS) is used to evaluate the seismic demand of equipment installed in nuclear power plants. In the conventional design practice of NPP structure, the FRS is simplified using the lumped-mass stick model (LMSM), assuming the floor slab as a rigid diaphragm. In the present study, to study the variation of seismic response in a floor, the FRSs at different locations were generated by 3-D finite element model, and the response was compared to that of the rigid diaphragm model. The result showed that the FRS significantly varied due to the large opening in a floor, which was not captured by the rigid diaphragm model. Based on the result, seismic fragility analysis was performed for the anchorage of a heat exchanger, to investigate the effect of location-dependent FRS disparity on the high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF).

Assessment of uncertainty associated with parameter of gumbel probability density function in rainfall frequency analysis (강우빈도해석에서 Bayesian 기법을 이용한 Gumbel 확률분포 매개변수의 불확실성 평가)

  • Moon, Jang-Won;Moon, Young-Il;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.411-422
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    • 2016
  • Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.

Assessment of the Internal Pressure Fragility of the PWR Containment Building Using a Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (비선형 유한요소 해석을 이용한 PWR 격납건물의 내압 취약도 평가)

  • Hahm, Daegi;Park, Hyung-Kui;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2014
  • In this study, the probabilistic internal pressure fragility analysis was performed by using the non-linear finite element analysis method. The target structure is one of the containment buildings of typical domestic pressurized water reactors(PWRs). The 3-dimensional finite element model of the containment building was developed with considering the large equipment hatches. To consider uncertainties in the material properties and structural capacities, we performed the sensitivity analysis of the ultimate pressure capacity with respect to the variation of four important uncertain parameters. The results of the sensitivity analysis were used to the selection of the probabilistic variables and the determination of their probabilistic parameters. To reflect the present condition of the tendon pre-stressing force, the data of the pre-stressing force acquired from the in-service inspections of tendon forces were used for the determination of the median value. Two failure modes(leak, rupture) were considered and their limit states were defined to assess the internal pressure fragility of target containment building. The internal pressure fragilities for each failure mode were evaluated in terms of median internal pressure capacity, high confidence low probability of failure(HCLPF) capacity, and fragility curves with respect to the confidence levels. The HCLPF capacity was 115.9 psig for leak failure mode, and 125.0 psig for rupture failure mode.

The Development of Fixing Equipment of the Unit Module Using the Probability Distribution of Transporting Load (운반하중의 확률분포를 활용한 유닛모듈 운반용 고정장치 개발)

  • Park, Nam-Cheon;Kim, Seok;Kim, Kyoon-Tai
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.4267-4275
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    • 2015
  • Prefabricated houses are fabricated at the factory for approximately 60 to 80% of the entire construction process, and assembled in the field. In the process of transporting and lifting, internal and external finishes of the unit module are concerned about damages. The purpose of this study is to improve the fixing equipment by analyzing load behavior. The improved fixing equipment would minimize the deformation of internal and external finishes. In order to develop the improved fixing equipment, transporting load on the fixing equipment is analyzed using Monte Carlo simulations, and structural performance is verified by the non-linear finite element analysis. Statistical analysis shows load distribution of unit module is similar with extreme value distribution. Based on the statistical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, the maximum transporting load is 28.9kN and 95% confidence interval of transporting load is -1.22kN to 9.5kN. The nonlinear structural analysis shows improved fixing equipment is not destructed to the limit load of 35.3kN and withstands the load-bearing in the 95% confidence interval of transporting load.

A Text Mining-based Intrusion Log Recommendation in Digital Forensics (디지털 포렌식에서 텍스트 마이닝 기반 침입 흔적 로그 추천)

  • Ko, Sujeong
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.2 no.6
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    • pp.279-290
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    • 2013
  • In digital forensics log files have been stored as a form of large data for the purpose of tracing users' past behaviors. It is difficult for investigators to manually analysis the large log data without clues. In this paper, we propose a text mining technique for extracting intrusion logs from a large log set to recommend reliable evidences to investigators. In the training stage, the proposed method extracts intrusion association words from a training log set by using Apriori algorithm after preprocessing and the probability of intrusion for association words are computed by combining support and confidence. Robinson's method of computing confidences for filtering spam mails is applied to extracting intrusion logs in the proposed method. As the results, the association word knowledge base is constructed by including the weights of the probability of intrusion for association words to improve the accuracy. In the test stage, the probability of intrusion logs and the probability of normal logs in a test log set are computed by Fisher's inverse chi-square classification algorithm based on the association word knowledge base respectively and intrusion logs are extracted from combining the results. Then, the intrusion logs are recommended to investigators. The proposed method uses a training method of clearly analyzing the meaning of data from an unstructured large log data. As the results, it complements the problem of reduction in accuracy caused by data ambiguity. In addition, the proposed method recommends intrusion logs by using Fisher's inverse chi-square classification algorithm. So, it reduces the rate of false positive(FP) and decreases in laborious effort to extract evidences manually.

A Three-Dimensiomal Slope Stability Analysis in Probabilistic Solution (3차원(次元) 사면(斜面) 안정해석(安定解析)에 관한 확률론적(確率論的) 연구(研究))

  • Kim, Young Su
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 1984
  • The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; $P_f=M/N$ N: Total number of trials M: Total number of failures Some of the conclusions derived. from the case study include; 1. Three dimensional factors of safety are generally much higher than 2-D factors of safety. However situations appear to exist where the 3-D factor of safety can be lower than the 2-D factor of safety. 2. The $F_3/F_2$ ratio appears to be quite sensitive to c and ${\phi}$ and to the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope but not to be to the unit weight of soil. 3. From the two models (normal, beta) considered for the distribution of the factor of safety, the beta distribution generally provides lager than normal distribution. 4. Results obtained using the beta and normal models are presented in a nomgraph relating slope height and slop angle to probability of failure.

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On the Distinction between Picea koraiensis Nak. and Picea abies(L.) Karsten based on the Discriminant Function (I) (판별식(判別式)에 의한 수목분류법(樹木分類法)에 관(關)하여 (I) -독일(獨逸)가문비와 종비(樅榧)나무와의 판별분석(判別分析)-)

  • Lee, Kwang-Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.58 no.1
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 1982
  • This experiment was carried out to distinguish between picea abies (L.) Karsten and Picea koraiensis Nak by the method of discriminant analysis which is used the metrical continuous characteristic on current inorphological plant taxanomy. The results are summarized as follows 1) The discriminant function and discriminant region from the experiment are Z(x)=Z($x_1,\;x_2$)=$0.000379x_1+0.004354x_2-0.311061$ or Z(x)=Z($x_1,\;x_2$=$0.000379(x_1-60.442800)+0.004354(x_2-66.185100)$, $$R_1=(x{\mid}0.000379x_1+0.004354x_2-0.311061{\geq_-}0)$$, $R_2$=($x{\mid}0.000379x_1+0.004354x_2-0.311061$ <0). 2) The probability of misclassification based on the above discriminant region is P($2{\mid}1$)=$P(1{\mid}2)$=0.444 therefore the probability of simultaneous misclassification of P($2{\mid}1$) and $P(1{\mid}2)$ is about 44.4%. 3) the probability of misclassification by the discriminant function resulted from the experiment if recorded as high but it is thought that there is a considerable meaning to perceive the probability of confidence about the discrimination better than its precision.

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Analysis of statistical characteristics of bistatic reverberation in the east sea (동해 해역에서 양상태 잔향음 통계적 특징 분석)

  • Yeom, Su-Hyeon;Yoon, Seunghyun;Yang, Haesang;Seong, Woojae
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the reverberation of a bistatic sonar operated in southeastern coast in the East Sea in July 2020 was analyzed. The reverberation sensor data were collected through an LFM sound source towed by a research vessel and a horizontal line array receiver 1 km to 5 km away from it. The reverberation sensor data was analyzed by various methods including geo-plot after signal processing. Through this, it was confirmed that the angle reflected from the sound source through the scatterer to the receiver has a dominant influence on the distribution of the reverberation sound, and the probability distribution characteristics of bistatic sonar reverberation varies for each beam. In addition, parametric factors of K distribution and Rayleigh distribution were estimated from the sample through moment method estimation. Using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at the confidence level of 0.05, the distribution probability of the data was analyzed. As a result, it could be observed that the reverberation follows a Rayleigh probability distribution, and it could be estimated that this was the effect of a low reverberation to noise ratio.