• Title/Summary/Keyword: conditional expectation

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Estimation of Consumers Valuation by Attributes of Green Jujube Chip (청대추칩의 속성별 소비자 가치 추정)

  • Ha, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Sang-Hak;Choi, Se-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.4830-4836
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    • 2013
  • This research was launched as an attempt to help create a new value-added product called "Green Jujube Chip." To accomplish the objectives, consumers value by attributes of Green Jujube Chip should be estimated. We used Choice Experiment for analysis, which we used to arrive at pricing of specialty jujube chips based on the conditional logit model. As a result, MWTP were estimated at 1333 Won/unit for Mid-size Company Product, 1752 Won/unit for Large Company Product, 1703 Won/unit for University Affiliation, 350 Won/unit for packing unit, 548 Won/unit for rating the raw fruit, 1,322 Won/unit for HACCP, and 1,166 Won/unit for ISO22000. The consumer's WTP for Green Juju Chip, associated with the university-brand recognition, was higher than a product produced by a mid-sized company but lower than a product by a large company. Given how the consumers regard the university-brand product as a specialty item, it is necessary to create value-added products that meet such high expectation. Therefore, we recommend the producers to acquire HACCP Food Safety Certification and the value-added product has used the highest quality raw fruit.

CTE with weighted portfolios (가중 포트폴리오에서의 CTE)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Shin, Dong Sik;Kim, Jae Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2017
  • In many literatures on VaR and CTE for multivariate distribution, these are estimated by using transformed univariate distribution with a specific ratio of many kinds of portfolios. Even though there are lots of works to define quantiles for multivariate distributions, there does not exist a quantile uniquely. Hence, it is not easy to define the VaR and CTE. In this paper, we propose the weighted CTE vectors corresponding to various ratio combinations of many kinds of portfolios by extending the researches on the alternative VaR and integrated multivariate CTE based on multivariate quantiles. We extend relation equations about univariate CTEs to multivariate CTE vectors and discuss their characteristics. The proposed weighted CTEs are explored with some data from multivariate normal distribution and illustrative examples.

Probabilistic Modeling of Photovoltaic Power Systems with Big Learning Data Sets (대용량 학습 데이터를 갖는 태양광 발전 시스템의 확률론적 모델링)

  • Cho, Hyun Cheol;Jung, Young Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.412-417
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    • 2013
  • Analytical modeling of photovoltaic power systems has been receiving significant attentions in recent years in that it is easy to apply for prediction of its dynamics and fault detection and diagnosis in advanced engineering technologies. This paper presents a novel probabilistic modeling approach for such power systems with a big data sequence. Firstly, we express input/output function of photovoltaic power systems in which solar irradiation and ambient temperature are regarded as input variable and electric power is output variable respectively. Based on this functional relationship, conditional probability for these three random variables(such as irradiation, temperature, and electric power) is mathematically defined and its estimation is accomplished from ratio of numbers of all sample data to numbers of cases related to two input variables, which is efficient in particular for a big data sequence of photovoltaic powers systems. Lastly, we predict the output values from a probabilistic model of photovoltaic power systems by using the expectation theory. Two case studies are carried out for testing reliability of the proposed modeling methodology in this paper.

A Study of Hospital Choice on the Basis of Consumption Values Theory (소비가치 이론에 의한 병원선택 요인 연구)

  • Lee, Sun-Hee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.2 s.57
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    • pp.413-427
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    • 1997
  • This research is based on the Consumption Values Theory proposed by Sheth(1991). The purpose of this research is finding the factors related to the process of hospital choice. The expectation of six hospital outpatients 600 was analyzed by six consumption values categories: functional value, social value, emotional value, rarity value, condition value, health related values. The main results of this research is as following; 1. In the result of factor analysis 22 consumption value factors which affect the hospital preference were extracted; kindness/clearness, service speed, comfort of space, technical competence in functional values, high income/active social life, low income/blue collar unmarried/man, middle aged/big family, woman/married, introvert in social values, high-class, comfort, reliability in emotional value, newness, classiness in rarity value, social relationship, close to residence, social reputation in conditional values, priority on health, health behavior, active sense of value on health in health related values. 2. The difference of consumption values among hospital types were analyzed. The critical factors in reference for corporate hospitals newly established were kindness/clearness, service speed, convenience, classiness, comfort, and newness. University hospitals were preferred by the factors of reliability, and social reputation. In general hospital, convenience and close to residence were critical factor. 3. In logistic regression, age, marital status, education level and income as socio-demographic variables were significantly related to general hospital choice. Also service speed and close to residence were positively and high income/active social life and high class value were negatively related to general hospital choice. On university hospital choice, age and marital status, education show posive relationship whereas income showing negative relationship. Kindness/clearness, service speed, comfort of space, unmarried/man, comfortable feeling, newness and close to residence showed negative relationship with university hospital selection whereas technical competence, reliability in emotional value, classiness in rarity value, social relationship in functional values showed positive relationship. Lastly kindness/clearness, comfort of space, high income/active social life, unmarried/man, high-class, comfort and newness were positively related to corporate hospitals newly established choice in contrast to negative relationship in reliability in emotional value and classiness. In summary, we found that hospital user also choose to hospital in base of various consumption value. Further studies to investigate the hospital consumer behavior will be needed.

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Application of Recurrent Neural-Network based Kalman Filter for Uncertain Target Models (불확정 표적 모델에 대한 순환 신경망 기반 칼만 필터 설계)

  • DongBeom Kim;Daekyo Jeong;Jaehyuk Lim;Sawon Min;Jun Moon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2023
  • For various target tracking applications, it is well known that the Kalman filter is the optimal estimator(in the minimum mean-square sense) to predict and estimate the state(position and/or velocity) of linear dynamical systems driven by Gaussian stochastic noise. In the case of nonlinear systems, Extended Kalman filter(EKF) and/or Unscented Kalman filter(UKF) are widely used, which can be viewed as approximations of the(linear) Kalman filter in the sense of the conditional expectation. However, to implement EKF and UKF, the exact dynamical model information and the statistical information of noise are still required. In this paper, we propose the recurrent neural-network based Kalman filter, where its Kalman gain is obtained via the proposed GRU-LSTM based neural-network framework that does not need the precise model information as well as the noise covariance information. By the proposed neural-network based Kalman filter, the state estimation performance is enhanced in terms of the tracking error, which is verified through various linear and nonlinear tracking problems with incomplete model and statistical covariance information.

Estimating the Consumer's Value of Creating Shared Value Strategy of Company Considering Biodiversity (생물다양성을 고려한 기업 공유가치창출전략의 소비자가치 측정)

  • Park, Sujeong;Min, Sun Hyung;Im, Jeongbin;Kim, Hong Sok
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.283-309
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    • 2015
  • Nagoya Protocol came into effect October of 2014. For Korean companies to follow Nagoya Protocol with ease, this research conducts the survey to figure out consumers' additional willingness to pay for bio-diversity. The hypothesis that the bio-diversity label will make an impact on willingness to pay through emotional value, conditional value, and epistemic value is based on consumption value theory. The survey is conducted for two product categories; first one is utilitarian product (milk) and the other one is hedonic product (cosmetics). The analysis result shows the bio-diversity label on both product categories incur additional willingness to pay. Especially, expectation on effectiveness of bio-diversity label increases the additional willingness to pay on biodiversity label. This implies for easy following on Nagoya Protocol, the education and promotion of bio-diversity is need to increase consumers' additional willingness to pay, which can be the attraction for companies to obey the Nagoya Protocol.

Evaluation of Diagnostic Performance of a Polymerase Chain Reaction for Detection of Canine Dirofilaria immitis (개 심장사상충을 진단하기 위한 중합연쇄반응검사 (PCR)의 진단적 특성 평가)

  • Pak, Son-Il;Kim, Doo
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.77-81
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    • 2007
  • Diagnostic performance of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detecting Dirofilaria immitis in dogs was evaluated when no gold standard test was employed. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test kit (SnapTM, IDEXX, USA) with unknown parameters was also employed. The sensitivity and specificity of the PCR from two-population model were estimated by using both maximum likelihood using expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and Bayesian method, assuming conditional independence between the two tests. A total of 266 samples, 133 samples in each trial, were randomly retrieved from the heartworm database records during the year 2002-2004 in a university animal hospital. These data originated from the test results of military dogs which were brought for routine medical check-up or testing for heartworm infection. When combined 2 trials, sensitivity and specificity of the PCR was 96.4-96.7% and 97.6-98.8% in EM and 94.4-94.8% and 97.1-98% in Bayesian. There were no statistical differences between estimates. This finding indicates that the PCR assay could be useful screening tool for detecting heartworm antigen in dogs. This study was provided further evidences that Bayesian approach is an alternative approach to draw better inference about the performance of a new diagnostic test in case when either gold test is not available.

Influential Factors of Social Relation on the Change in the Depression Level of Elderly -Longitudinal Analysis using a Latent Growth Model (노인의 사회적관계 요인이 우울 궤적에 미치는 영향 -잠재성장모형을 이용한 종단연구)

  • Kim, Jin-hun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2019
  • Although social relation factors are confirmed to be closely associated with the depression level of the elderly through the preceding studies, there has been no specific study on subfactors of social relation that influence the trajectory of depression level. Considering such limitation, this study aims to analyze influencing subfactors of social relation on the trajectory of depression of the elderly. The 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th-year data of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Ageing (KLoSA), which were provided by the Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS), were used in this study and 2,484 people aged 65 and over who responded to all the four-session surveys were used as final analysis subjects. In the result of the longitudinal study on depression level of the elderly aged 65 and over, the individual depression level was confirmed become lowered over time, showing a positive change. Also, the conditional model of Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) was applied to identify specific social network factors that influence the longitudinal change of depression level of the elderly. In the result of the analysis, it was found that initial value of depression of the elderly was influenced by whether they have a spouse or not, number of household member, meeting with close people, whether they do economic activity or not, whether they have a religion or not, etc. and the rate of change in depression of the elderly was influenced by number of household member, meeting with close people, expectation about life, etc. Through above results, this study suggests a need for specific programs and supports to continuously lower the depression level of the elderly.