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Distribution and Improvement of the Capital Market in Indonesia: A Comparative Study of Risk Management

  • Murtiadi AWALUDDIN;Rustan DM;HASBIAH;Muhammad Akil RAHMAN;Sri Prilmayanti AWALUDDIN;Nadya Yuni BAHRA
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The purpose of this article is to determine whether there are differences in the level of return and risk of the conventional and Islamic capital markets. Research design, data and methodology: This study takes data on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and the Liquid-45 (LQ45) stock groups in the 2017 to 2020 period. The research approach used is quantitative research with a type of comparison. The data used secondary data sourced from the closing price of shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The statistical method used to test the hypothesis is a different test or independent sample t-test. Results: There is a significant difference between the rate of return and investment risk in JII and LQ-45. The rate of return and risk of investing in LQ-45 is higher than that of JII. Conclusions: There is a significant difference in the rate of return on investment in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and LQ-45, including conventional stock Liquid-45 (LQ-45) is higher than the rate of return on shares of JII shares. There is a significant difference in the level of investment risk in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and the Liquid-45 (LQ-45), where the risk level for the LQ-45 is higher than that of the JII shares.

Stock-Index Invest Model Using News Big Data Opinion Mining (뉴스와 주가 : 빅데이터 감성분석을 통한 지능형 투자의사결정모형)

  • Kim, Yoo-Sin;Kim, Nam-Gyu;Jeong, Seung-Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2012
  • People easily believe that news and stock index are closely related. They think that securing news before anyone else can help them forecast the stock prices and enjoy great profit, or perhaps capture the investment opportunity. However, it is no easy feat to determine to what extent the two are related, come up with the investment decision based on news, or find out such investment information is valid. If the significance of news and its impact on the stock market are analyzed, it will be possible to extract the information that can assist the investment decisions. The reality however is that the world is inundated with a massive wave of news in real time. And news is not patterned text. This study suggests the stock-index invest model based on "News Big Data" opinion mining that systematically collects, categorizes and analyzes the news and creates investment information. To verify the validity of the model, the relationship between the result of news opinion mining and stock-index was empirically analyzed by using statistics. Steps in the mining that converts news into information for investment decision making, are as follows. First, it is indexing information of news after getting a supply of news from news provider that collects news on real-time basis. Not only contents of news but also various information such as media, time, and news type and so on are collected and classified, and then are reworked as variable from which investment decision making can be inferred. Next step is to derive word that can judge polarity by separating text of news contents into morpheme, and to tag positive/negative polarity of each word by comparing this with sentimental dictionary. Third, positive/negative polarity of news is judged by using indexed classification information and scoring rule, and then final investment decision making information is derived according to daily scoring criteria. For this study, KOSPI index and its fluctuation range has been collected for 63 days that stock market was open during 3 months from July 2011 to September in Korea Exchange, and news data was collected by parsing 766 articles of economic news media M company on web page among article carried on stock information>news>main news of portal site Naver.com. In change of the price index of stocks during 3 months, it rose on 33 days and fell on 30 days, and news contents included 197 news articles before opening of stock market, 385 news articles during the session, 184 news articles after closing of market. Results of mining of collected news contents and of comparison with stock price showed that positive/negative opinion of news contents had significant relation with stock price, and change of the price index of stocks could be better explained in case of applying news opinion by deriving in positive/negative ratio instead of judging between simplified positive and negative opinion. And in order to check whether news had an effect on fluctuation of stock price, or at least went ahead of fluctuation of stock price, in the results that change of stock price was compared only with news happening before opening of stock market, it was verified to be statistically significant as well. In addition, because news contained various type and information such as social, economic, and overseas news, and corporate earnings, the present condition of type of industry, market outlook, the present condition of market and so on, it was expected that influence on stock market or significance of the relation would be different according to the type of news, and therefore each type of news was compared with fluctuation of stock price, and the results showed that market condition, outlook, and overseas news was the most useful to explain fluctuation of news. On the contrary, news about individual company was not statistically significant, but opinion mining value showed tendency opposite to stock price, and the reason can be thought to be the appearance of promotional and planned news for preventing stock price from falling. Finally, multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to derive function of investment decision making on the basis of relation between positive/negative opinion of news and stock price, and the results showed that regression equation using variable of market conditions, outlook, and overseas news before opening of stock market was statistically significant, and classification accuracy of logistic regression accuracy results was shown to be 70.0% in rise of stock price, 78.8% in fall of stock price, and 74.6% on average. This study first analyzed relation between news and stock price through analyzing and quantifying sensitivity of atypical news contents by using opinion mining among big data analysis techniques, and furthermore, proposed and verified smart investment decision making model that could systematically carry out opinion mining and derive and support investment information. This shows that news can be used as variable to predict the price index of stocks for investment, and it is expected the model can be used as real investment support system if it is implemented as system and verified in the future.

The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Returns and Investors' Behavior : Trading Hour and Non-trading Hour Analysis (주가와 투자 주체의 상호 관계에 관한 연구 : 거래 시간대와 비거래 시간대 수익률 분석)

  • Ko, Kwang-Soo;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.145-167
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    • 2010
  • We investigate the dynamic relationship between stock returns and investors' behavior. For the putpose of the paper, daily KOSPI returns are decomposed into two parts: overnight returns and daytime returns. Overnight return is measured by the closing price of the previous day and the opening price of the current day. And daytime return is measured by the opening and closing prices of the current day. Qvernight returns are assumed to reflect global economic information, and daytime returns, domestic or local information. Major results are as follows: Foreign investors' behavior has an effect on the overnight returns more than the daytime returns. Individual investors' behavior, however, has little effect on the overnight returns, but not the daytime returns. Consequently, forecast error variance decomposition shows that the variance explanation power of foreign investors is higher in overnight returns rather than in the daytime returns. And the variance explanation power of individual investors is higher in daytime returns rather than in overnight returns. It implies that foreign investors employ dynamic hedging strategies and give more weight to global economic information rather than to domestic information. We conclude that investment behavior of foreign investors and domestic individuals is based on different economic information. This paper's findings are consistent with the economic situation that the Korean capital markets have faced since the global financial crisis of August 2008.

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A Study on Stock Trading Method based on Volatility Breakout Strategy using a Deep Neural Network (심층 신경망을 이용한 변동성 돌파 전략 기반 주식 매매 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Yi, Eunu;Lee, Won-Boo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2022
  • The stock investing is one of the most popular investment techniques. However, since it is not easy to obtain a return through actual investment, various strategies have been devised and tried in the past to obtain an effective and stable return. Among them, the volatility breakout strategy identifies a strong uptrend that exceeds a certain level on a daily basis as a breakout signal, follows the uptrend, and quickly earns daily returns. It is one of the popular investment strategies that are widely used to realize profits. However, it is difficult to predict stock prices by understanding the price trend pattern of stocks. In this paper, we propose a method of buying and selling stocks by predicting the return in trading based on the volatility breakout strategy using a bi-directional long short-term memory deep neural network that can realize a return in a short period of time. As a result of the experiment assuming actual trading on the test data with the learned model, it can be seen that the results outperform both the return and stability compared to the existing closing price prediction model using the long-short-term memory deep neural network model.

Removal Efficiency of Microstickies by Flotation Process (부유부상 공정의 마이크로 스틱키 제거 효율에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Il;Lee, Hak-Lae
    • Journal of Korea Technical Association of The Pulp and Paper Industry
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2005
  • Increase in the utilization rate of recycled paper and closing level of papermaking system increased the problem associated with stickies that include decrease in process runnability and product quality. It is required to establish a process for removing the micro stickies to solve the problems associated with stickies. In this study, the application of flotation process as a method to remove micro stickies was examined. Model micro stickies (MMS) were prepared using microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) and pressure sensitive adhesives (PSA), and the influence of three nonionic surfactants on the removal efficiency of MMS from flotation process was examined. Also the effect of surfactants on the deposition of micro stickies that remaining in the papermaking wet end onto wire was examined. Removal efficiency of MMS by flotation was increased when the proportion of nonionic surfactant with propylene oxide (PO) type hydrophilic tail was increased and stock pH was 7. It was suggested that this nonionic surfactant minimized the increase of surface energy of hydrophobic MMS. The MMS with high hydrophobicity remaining in the papermaking system, however, would cause more serious deposition problems on papermaking wet end. Therefore, it is of great importance to increase the removal efficiency of MMS in flotation process for the prevention of papermaking system contamination caused by stickies deposition.

An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price Reaction to M&A in Liner Shipping Companies (정기선사 M&A와 주가수익률 실증분석)

  • Park, Seon-Na;Lee, Ki-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.179-201
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    • 2012
  • Since 1993, M&A activities have been frequent in Liner shipping market. This study examines the effect of M&A on stock price reaction for acquiring firms listed on the market. The study covers the period from 1993 to 2009 and uses 61 daily closing prices of the acquiring firms before and after the M&A announcement day and is analyzed through the market-adjusted model in an event study. After calculating short-term performance using abnormal returns(AR) and cumulative average abnormal returns(CAR) before and after 30 days from the day of event, the results on the test show that the firm's values slightly increased through the M&A, but it does not attest to the statistical significance. In addition, this study investigates the AR difference between estimating windows and post-event windows for the 3 cases of each period before and after 30 days, 15 days, and 7 days from the event day to analyse the impact of M&A on the addition of acquiring firm's value. Our findings suggest that the M&A between Liner shipping companies is targeted for the long-term business strategy instead of the instant rise in the value of the firm involved.

Using genetic algorithms to develop volatility index-assisted hierarchical portfolio optimization (변동성 지수기반 유전자 알고리즘을 활용한 계층구조 포트폴리오 최적화에 관한 연구)

  • Byun, Hyun-Woo;Song, Chi-Woo;Han, Sung-Kwon;Lee, Tae-Kyu;Oh, Kyong-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1049-1060
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    • 2009
  • The expansion of volatility in Korean Stock Market made it more difficult for the individual to invest directly and increased the weight of indirect investment through a fund. The purpose of this study is to construct the EIF(enhanced index fund) model achieves an excessive return among several types of fund. For this purpose, this paper propose portfolio optimization model to manage an index fund by using GA(genetic algorithm), and apply the trading amount and the closing price of standard index to earn an excessive return add to index fund return. The result of the empirical analysis of this study suggested that the proposed model is well represented the trend of KOSPI 200 and the new investment strategies using this can make higher returns than Buy-and-Hold strategy by an index fund, if an appropriate number of stocks included.

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An Empirical Study on the Validity of Strategic Trading Models with Concurrent Broker and Informed Trader (정보거래자와 브로커가 동시에 거래하는 전략적 모형의 타당성에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Tak
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2005
  • This paper investigate to test the validity of the basic assumptions of strategic trading models with the broker and informed trader using daily closing data of KOSPI 200 stock index futures for the year 2001-2003. Major results are summarized as follows: (i) For these years, while foreign investors and brokerage companies traded for the directions consistent with the model, brokerage companies and individual investors traded for inconsistent directions. (ii) Cross correlation function (CCF) analysis shows no systematic dependency in the trading between all three participants(foreign investor, brokerage companies and individual investors) for these years. (iii) Chi-square validity test for the 30 days of the largest unexpected trading volume shows some systematic dependency in the trading between three participants for these years. Finally, some limitations of this paper and direction for further research were suggested.

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A research on productivity of Cortinellus edodes (Berk) Ido et Imai cultivated on timber bed (골목일대(榾木一代)의 표고버섯 발생량(發生量)에 대(對)한 연구(硏究))

  • Chung, Tae Kyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.23-27
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    • 1963
  • A research was made through a experimental cultivation during a period of 7 years (1956~1962) to determine the yearly yield, the total gross yield over 7 year's period and the maximum availability of stock timbers used as the germination bed of cortinellus edodes (Berk) Ido et Imai. The results are summarized as follows : (1) Research and plot scheme: Two experimental plots were established-plot "A" in the experimental forest of this college; plot "B" in the campus woods, 400 timber beds were furnished in each. The kinds of timbers used are : Quercus Serrata Thumb 140. Quercus acutissima Carr. 140, Quercus crispula BI 120. The environmental condition in plot "A" was better then that in plot "B" and the former showed greater yield than the latter. (2) yield : In plot "A" the total yield was 58.875kg and some of the timbers was still continuing germ in this seven after closing of the plot. In plot "B" the total yield was 56.90kg and after the sixth year no more germination was observed. In conclusion, plot "A" showed greater yield and longer germination than plot "B". (3) Germination efficacy and the kinds of timber: The best result was abserved on Quercus serrata, thumb Quercur acutissima Carr, stood next and then came Quercus crispula BI. Betula platyphylla was tried, but the result was worst. (4) Availability limits of timber beds: Quercus serrata Thumb with diameter 12~15cm had the longest availability more than (6~7 years) and Quercus acutissima Carr with diameter 12~15cm showed 6~7 year's availability. The shortest availability was found in Quercus crispula with diameter 6~9cm. Any kinds of timber with diameter 6~9cm had only 4~5 years of availability (5) In the table showing the yearly germination quantity, the figure of December and Jaunary of the 4th and 5th year shows the yield obtained in the semi-cellar paper house. This tells that there is good promise of winter cultivation of cortinellus edodes (Berk) Ido et Imai on matured timber beds.

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A Study on the Safety Regulation Revision for Urban Transit Vehicles (도시철도차량의 안전기준 강화에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Woo-Dong;Shin Jeong-Ryol;Kim Gil-Dong;Han Suk-Youn;Park Kee-Jun;Hong Jai-Sung;Ahn Tai-Ki;Lee Ho-Yong;Kim Jong-Wook
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2003.10c
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    • pp.322-326
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    • 2003
  • Dae-gu subway accident raise whole points in connection with safety facilities and operating of national urban transit system like rolling stocks, facilities, management of human. Rolling stock is made every effort for improvement of performance, guarantee of comfortableness, insurance of economical efficiency. But Security like safety of fire is not thoroughgoing enough. Especially, interior material has used although it is not prove its degree of safety. it is a main cause of Dae-gu subway accident. Safety regulation of urban transit vehicle that legislate for security in March 2000 does not applied manufacturing vehicles before in 2000. It has be prescribed in the regulations that incombustibles must be used. But detailed test standard related with incombustibles is not prescribe. Thus that regulation be required reinforcement of detailed test standard. Main cause of Dae-Gu subway accident is a fire in vehicle. However, many defects are found in infrastructure and operating vehicle of urban transit, such as inexperienced disposal of driver and CCC in early stage of the fire accident, unskilled opening and closing doors, insufficient escape facilities and safety facilities of a station house and tunnel, and incomplete communication system between vehicle and CTC, extraordinary step. Thus the aims of this study are prevention of urban transit accident, improvement plan of safety driving, and proposal of quick action plan through analysis of total faculty of vehicle.

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