• Title/Summary/Keyword: causality model

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An Analysis on the Causal Relation Among SMP, Base-Load Share, LNG Import Price, and Exchange Rate (전력계통한계가격(SMP)과 기저발전비율, LNG도입가격, 환율 간 인과관계 분석)

  • Park, Min Hyug;Moon, Yang Taik;Park, Jung Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 2014
  • This article examines the causality relationship among SMP, base-load share, LNG import price, and exchange rate in Korean power market during 2002~2012, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). The cointegration test shows that 4 variables without unit root have been in the long-run causality. As the results of ECM, SMP is analyzed to have been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and base-load share in the shot-run, while it has been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and exchange rate in the long-run. This article has the following policy implications: the adjustment of exchange rate to reduce he risk of LNG import price and the proper securement of base-load share for the long-run stability of SMP.

Foreign Capital Inflows and Stock Market Development in Pakistan

  • SAJID, Ali;HASHMI, Muhammad Arsalan;ABDULLAH, A.;HASAN, Muhammad Amin
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.543-552
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    • 2021
  • The study examines how foreign capital inflows affect stock market development in Pakistan for the period from July 2008 to June 2018. Several components of foreign capital inflows were used for empirical analysis, namely, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and remittances. Further, market capitalization was used as a proxy for stock market development. The study uses an ARDL model for examining the long-run and short-run relationships between variables. We also analyze the bi-directional causality between the variables through the Granger causality test. Further, the presence of structural breaks was analyzed through the CUSUM and CUSUM Square test. The results suggest that in the long run, remittances have a positive and significant relationship with stock market development. However, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and USD-PKR exchange rate do not have a significant impact on stock market development. The results also suggest that in the short run there is a negative relationship between FDI, USD-PKR exchange rate and market capitalization. Contrarily, we found a positive relationship between FPI and market capitalization. The results of Granger causality test suggest that remittances and USD-PKR exchange rate have a causal relationship with stock market development. Finally, we found no evidence of structural breaks in the dataset.

Does Technological Progress, Trade, or Financial Globalization Stimulate Income Inequality in India?

  • GIRI, Arun Kumar;PANDEY, Rajan;MOHAPATRA, Geetilaxmi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2021
  • The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the effects of trade, financial globalization, and technological progress on income inequality in the Indian economy over the period from 1982 to 2018. For this purpose, the study uses economic growth, financial globalization, trade openness, technological development, and economic inequality variables with appropriate proxies. The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and VECM based Granger causality approach to estimate both the short-run and long-run relationship and causality among variables. Using the ARDL bounds test, the study finds a long-run co-integrating relationship existing among the variables in the model. The study confirms the existence of a positive and significant impact of technological progress on income inequality. Further, globalization's limited impact reflects two offsetting tendencies; trade globalization is associated with a reduction in income inequality, while financial globalization is related to an increase in inequality. The results of VECM based Granger causality approach further confirm that technological progress, trade, and financial globalization causes income inequality both directly and indirectly through economic growth and inflation. In case of India, the results of this research can significantly facilitate stakeholders and policymakers in devising policies towards effective globalization and technological innovation for inclusive growth.

A Study on the Causal Relationship between Logistics Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence in Korea

  • Wang, Chao;Kim, Yul-Seong;Wang, Chong;Kim, Chi Yeol
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.18-33
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This paper investigates the causal relationship between logistics infrastructure development and the economic growth of Korea. Considering the industrial and economic structure of Korea, it is likely that logistics infrastructure is positively associated with the economic growth of the country. Design/methodology - The causal relationship between logistics infrastructure and economic development is estimated using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) considering long-run equilibrium between the two factors. To this end, a dataset consisting of 7 logistics infrastructure proxies and 5 economic growth indicators covering the period of 1990-2017 is used. Findings - It was found that causality, in general, runs from logistics infrastructure development to economic growth. Specifically, the results indicate that maritime transport is positively associated with the economic growth of Korea in terms of GDP and international trade. In addition, other modes of transport also have a positive impact on either the GDP or international trade of Korea. Originality/value - While existing studies in this area are based on either regional observations or a specific mode of transport, this study presents empirical evidence on causality between logistics infrastructure and the economic growth of Korea using a more comprehensive dataset. In addition, the findings in this paper can provide valuable implications for transport infrastructure development policies.

Bond Gragh Prototypes: A General Model for Dynamic Systems in Terms of Bond Graphs (표준본드선도: 본드선도에 의한 동적시스템의 일반모델)

  • Park, Jeon-Soo;Kim, Jong-Shik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.1414-1421
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    • 1997
  • This paper examines the physics and mechanics governing the dynamic interaction between physical systems and suggests the four structures of bond graph prototypes, considered as a general model that can promise their dynamic behavior physically resonable. The bond graph prototypes originating from the paper are more realistic junction structures than those used to model dynamic systems conventionally by bond graph standards in whether physical constraints are involved or not when the energy exchange between two dynamic components arises. It is shown that the bond graph prototypes are dynamic or energetic in their describing equations compared to the bond graph standards, and connectivity and causality are properties of dynamic systems upon which the steps developed in this paper for the bond graph prototypes are wholly based and their definitions an concepts are highly emphasized all through the paper.

A Study on Causality between Total Quality Management and Performance of Secondary-Care Hospital Using Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award Model for Healthcare (말콤 볼드리지 모형을 이용한 2차 의료기관의 전사적 품질관리와 성과 간의 인과관계 연구)

  • Kwon, June-Duk;Yoon, Chiho;Oh, Hyun-Jong;Park, Beom-Gyu;Kim, Yang-Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.11-30
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to lay groundwork for future research on the outcomes of national quality awards for secondary-care healthcare organizations. Methods: For this study, a secondary-care hospital was selected through a convenience sampling method and all of its organizational members participated in complete enumeration survey using 109 survey questions derived from the MBNQA criteria for healthcare through structural equation modeling (SEM) Results: As a result, Leadership was shown to drive Foundation and Direction, which affect System that creates Results with 12 hypotheses supported out of 18 hypotheses established. Conclusion: The findings of this study will provide valuable implications to the top management of secondary-care hospitals for self-examining quality management and promoting sustainable competitiveness.

A VAR Model of Stimulating Economic Growth in the Guangdong Province, P.R. China

  • Ortiz, Jaime;Xia, Jingwen;Wang, Haibo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2015
  • The authors calculate the long-term predictability of GDP, domestic demand, investment, and net exports for Guangdong province, P.R. China from 2000 to 2013. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model with quarterly data for this period is first co-integrated then the Granger causality test is applied to empirically assess the relationships among gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, investment, and net exports. There is a strong causality effect between investment and net exports in Guangdong province. However, the variance decomposition results indicate that exports respond to foreign shocks rather than domestic ones, making their impact on the Guangdong economy to predict. Results show the stimulating effect of domestic demand on GDP is larger than the stimulating effect of net exports and much larger than even the stimulating effect of investment. The analysis suggests that there are dynamic influences with various levels of persistence between GDP, consumption, investment, and net exports. Macroeconomic policy adjustments are urgently required to expand domestic demand and thereby stimulate economic growth in Guangdong province.

The Impact of Credit and Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in Asian Countries

  • NGUYEN, Bao K.Q.;HUYNH, Vy T.T.;TO, Bao C.N.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.9
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    • pp.165-176
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    • 2021
  • The paper has used the Solow-Swan growth model to analyze the long-term impact of credit market development and stock market development on economic growth in Asia from 2000 to 2019. The empirical model is performed with panel cointegration analysis by Common Correlated Effects (CCE) method with cross-sectional dependencies. The results find that there exists a cointegration relationship among stock market, credit market development, and economic growth. These results also show that financial structure improves the exact impact of financial development on economic growth, namely the opposite effect of stock market development and credit market development. Moreover, the Granger causality test reveals a bi-directional relationship between credit market development and economic growth, while only unidirectional causality from stock market development to economic growth for the whole group panel. And it is different for a specific country, according to Kónya's test. The view of the new structuralism does not apply in the Asian financial system when we estimate the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL) to analyze the asymmetric relationship between financial structure and economic growth. On the whole, policymakers can draw on the findings to provide policy implications to improve their country's financial system as well as pursue the goal of sustainable economic growth.

Asymmetric Transmission between Producer and Wholesale Prices in Farmed Olive Flounder Market (양식넙치 산지-도매가격간 비대칭적 가격전이 분석)

  • Lee, Heon-Dong;Ma, Chang-Mo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether asymmetric price transmission exists in the distribution stage of farmed olive flounder market. For the analysis, time series data were used for the producer prices of Jeju and Wando, and the wholesale prices of Incheon, Hanam and Busan. Through the Granger causality test, the causal relationship from the producer price to the wholesale price was derived and the asymmetric price transmission was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a phenomenon of 'positive asymmetric price transmission' from the producer price to the wholesale price. This result can be one evidence that excess profits are received in the intermediate distribution stage, and can be said to be a result showing the incompleteness and inefficiency of the distribution structure of the farmed olive flounder. In the future, it is required to establish an information-sharing system in all stages of production, distribution, and consumption that can create a competitive environment for distribution participants and resolve information asymmetry. Also, it is necessary to review the distribution center specializing in live fish from the viewpoint of the establishment of new distribution channels and sales diversification strategy under the rapidly changing fisheries environment.

Economic Growth, Financial Development, and Trade Openness of Leading Countries in ASEAN

  • HO, Chi H.P.;PHAM, Nhan N.T.;NGUYEN, Kiet T.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2021
  • The study examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth through trade openness for the leading ASEAN countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). The study employs a panel data for the period of 25 years spanning from 1995 to 2015 for the six countries, yielding a balanced panel of 150 observations. Fixed effect model (FEM) and random effect model (REM) are used for the panel data, following the Hausman test performed for model selection. The trivariate Granger causality test is also used to check for possible relationship between the variables. The results show that REM is chosen based on the Hausman test result, suggesting that the trade openness has a positive association with growth whereas the financial development is positively, but insignificantly associated with growth. The reason for this is that the financial development and economic growth may be related to each other. The results are, then, further explored and confirmed by the causality test. That is, the financial development and the economic growth, through the trade openness, are found to have bidirectional positive relationships. This implies that there would be shortcomings when ignoring the presence of trade openness, which positively impacts the relationship between finance and growth.