• Title/Summary/Keyword: binomial logistic regression model

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A Hierarchical Approach for Diagnose of Safety Performance and Factor Identification for Black Spots (Black on Suwon-city) (사고다발지점의 안전성능진단 및 위치별 사고요인분석(수원시를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Suk-Hui;Jang, Jeong-A;Choe, Gi-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2005
  • Accident type and/or factor identification is important in accident reduction planning. The aim of this paper is to apply the hierarchical approach with binomial distribution and logistic regression analysis to find out types and factors, respectively. Based on 2001 Suwon city black spot data, a binomial distribution modeling approach has been applied to diagnose the black spots, with the help of safety performance modeling approach has been applied to diagnose the black spots, with the help of safety performance function. Then, the logistic regression analysis has been employed to identify the critical factors. Some accident remedies are also reviewed in the light of the model outcomes. The proposed research framework sheds light on a different accident related research and can also be successfully applied to similar studies and sites.

Supramax Bulk Carrier Market Forecasting with Technical Indicators and Neural Networks

  • Lim, Sang-Seop;Yun, Hee-Sung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.341-346
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    • 2018
  • Supramax bulk carriers cover a wide range of ocean transportation requirements, from major to minor bulk cargoes. Market forecasting for this segment has posed a challenge to researchers, due to complexity involved, on the demand side of the forecasting model. This paper addresses this issue by using technical indicators as input features, instead of complicated supply-demand variables. Artificial neural networks (ANN), one of the most popular machine-learning tools, were used to replace classical time-series models. Results revealed that ANN outperformed the benchmark binomial logistic regression model, and predicted direction of the spot market with more than 70% accuracy. Results obtained in this paper, can enable chartering desks to make better short-term chartering decisions.

Development of Ingrowth Estimation Equations for Pinus densiflora in Korea Derived from National Forest Inventory Data (국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용한 소나무의 진계생장 추정식 개발)

  • Moon, Ga Hyun;Yim, Jong Su;Shin, Man Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.107 no.4
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    • pp.402-411
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to develop ingrowth estimation equations on Pinus densiflora found in Gangwon Province and in the center of Korean Peninsula, based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI)'s permanent sampling plot data. For this study, identical sampling plots in $5^{th}$ and $6^{th}$ NFI data were collected in order to identify ingrowth amounts for the last 5 years. Following two-stage approaches in developing the ingrowth estimation equations, the logistic regression model was used in the first stage to estimate the ingrowth probability. In the second stage, regression analysis on sampling plots with ingrowth occurrence was used to estimate the ingrowth amount. A candidate model was finally selected as an optimal model after a verification based on three evaluation statistics which include mean difference (MD), standard deviation of difference (SDD) and standard error of difference (SED). In results, a logistic regression model based on the number of sampling plot which did not result in ingrowth (model VI), was selected for an ingrowth probability estimation equation and exponential function including the species composition (SC) variable was optimal for an ingrowth estimation equation (model VII). The ingrowth estimation equations developed in this study also evaluated the estimation ability in various forest stand conditions, and no particular issue in fitness or applicability was observed.

Development of the U-turn Accident Model at Signalized Intersections in Urban Areas by Logistic Regression Analysis (로지스틱 회귀분석에 의한 도시부 신호교차로 유턴 사고모형 개발)

  • Kang, Jong Ho;Kim, Kyung Whan;Kim, Seong Mun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1279-1287
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the U-turn accident model at signalized intersections in urban areas. The characteristics of the accidents which are associated with U-turn operation at 3 and 4-legged signalized intersections was analyzed and the U-turn accident model was developed by regression analysis in Changwon city. First, in order to analyze the effectiveness on traffic accidents by U-turn installation, the difference of mean of traffic accident number are measured between two groups which are composed by whether or not U-turn installation the groups by Mann-Whitney U test. The result of significance test showed that intergroup comparison on mean by accident types made difference except rear-end accident type and by accident locations exit section only showed difference in significance level at 4-legged intersections, so the accident number have more where the U-turn is permitted than not. Response measures about the number of accidents were classified by whether accidents occurred and accident model were constructed using binomial logistic regression analysis method. The developed models show that the variables of conflict traffic, number of opposing lane are adopted as independent variable for both intersections. The variables of longitudinal grade for 3-legged signalized intersection and number of crosswalk for 4-legged signalized intersection at which the U-turn is permitted is adopted as independent variable only. These study results suggest that U-turn would be permitted at the intersection where the number of opposing lane is more than 3.5 each, the longitudinal grade of opposing road is upward flow and there is need to establish the U-turn traffic sign at signalized intersections.

A Study of the Willingness to Change into Organic Blueberry (국산 블루베리 농가의 유기농 전환의향 연구)

  • Kang, Chang-Soo;Yang, Sung-Bum;Kang, Sung-Ku
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.555-567
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the willingness to change into organic blueberry and the activating strategies on domestic products. For the activation of domestic blueberry, it is necessary to get the quality certification, especially organic certificate and develop the technology for increasing production. It is investigated that the smaller product, younger farmer and higher price expected, the higher willingness to change into organic blueberry. The results and finding of this study can be used to build-up the technical and marketing supporting system that reflects the rapid change of customer's preference on blueberry.

Analysis-based Pedestrian Traffic Incident Analysis Based on Logistic Regression (로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 노인 보행자 교통사고 요인 분석)

  • Siwon Kim;Jeongwon Gil;Jaekyung Kwon;Jae seong Hwang;Choul ki Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2024
  • The characteristics of elderly traffic accidents were identified by reflecting the situation of the elderly population in Korea, which is entering an ultra-aging society, and the relationship between independent and dependent variables was analyzed by classifying traffic accidents of serious or higher and traffic accidents of minor or lower in elderly pedestrian traffic accidents using binomial variables. Data collection, processing, and variable selection were performed by acquiring data from the elderly pedestrian traffic accident analysis system (TAAS) for the past 10 years (from 13 to 22 years), and basic statistics and analysis by accident factors were performed. A total of 15 influencing variables were derived by applying the logistic regression model, and the influencing variables that have the greatest influence on the probability of a traffic accident involving severe or higher elderly pedestrians were derived. After that, statistical tests were performed to analyze the suitability of the logistic model, and a method for predicting the probability of a traffic accident according to the construction of a prediction model was presented.

Risk Relationship of Cataract and Epilation on Radiation Dose and Smoking Habit

  • Tomita, Makoto;Otake, Masanori;Moon, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1349-1364
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    • 2006
  • An analytic approach that provides explicit estimates of risk on cataract and epilation data is evaluated by reasonableness of conceivable relative risk models regarding a simple, odds, logistic or Gompertz regression method, assuming a binomial distribution. In these analyses, we apply relative risk models with two thresholds between epilators and nonepilators from a highly characteristic lesion of which radiation cataract does not occur around 2 gray for a single acute exposure. The risk models are fitted to the data assuming 10 as a constant relative biological effectiveness of neutron. The likelihood of observing the entire data set in these models fitted is evaluated by an individual binary-response array. Estimation of a threshold with or without severe epilation and the 100 ($1-\alpha$)% confidence limits are derived from the maximum likelihood approach. The relative risk model with two thresholds can be expressed as a formula with structure of Background $\times$ RR, where RR includes threshold models with or without epilation. The radiosensitivity of ionizing radiation to cataracts has been examined for the relationship between epilators and nonepilators.

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Assessing the Impacts of Job insecurity, Job satisfaction and Relationship with customers on Intention of Retention of Employees in Social Enterprises (사회적기업 근로자의 직무불안, 직무만족, 고객과의 관계가 재직 의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Eun Jung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.835-843
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    • 2013
  • Despite their social mission, social enterprises work in the changing global economic environment and therefore face to comply with performance objectives. This situation means that human resources management strategy has a crucial role to play. Especially, the challenge in maintaining competitive efficiency depends on achieving a lower level of employee turnover. This study aims to investigate the role of job insecurity, job satisfaction, relationship with customers regarding the intention of retention among social enterprise workers. Data were collected in South Korea from 271 women employees in 36 social enterprises and the binomial logistic regression was used to assess the model hypothesized. As the result, social enterprise employees showed a considerably positive attitude toward the intent to stay their workplace. However, job insecurity appeared to have the strongest negative effect on the intention of retention, whereas job satisfaction and relationship with customers had the positive effects, above and beyond demographic variables and organization variables. The result suggested the human resource management can play a significant role in retaining social enterprise employees by reducing job instability and improving job satisfaction and customers management.

The Economic Evaluation of the Public Values of Agriculture and Rural Area in Korea (농업·농촌의 공익적 가치에 대한 경제적 평가)

  • Kim, Yong-Lyoul;Jeong, Hak-Kyun;Heo, Joo-Nyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2014
  • The public value of agriculture and rural areas is closely associated with the concept of multifunctionality of agriculture and rural areas, which in turn signifies economic values other than the production function of agriculture and rural areas. Based on the survey results, virtual scenarios were set up and the contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to estimate the amount consumers are willing to pay (WTP) for the public functions of agriculture and rural areas. This study selected five domains of the public value (environment conservation, maintenance of landscape and cultural tradition, enhancement of national prestige, local community maintenance and socio-economic functions, and food security) and 21 value items as components of the public value. An economic assessment of the public value of agriculture and rural areas was conducted using a binomial logistic regression model. The estimation results showed that the public value consumers are willing to pay ranges from a minimum of 6,346.8 billion won to a maximum of 9,327.2 billion won.

The Relationship between Violation of Designated Lane Usage and Accident Severity on Freeways (고속도로 지정차로제 위반과 교통사고 심각도와의 관계분석: 화물차량을 대상으로)

  • Kim, Joo-Hee;Lee, Soo-Beom;Kim, Da-Hee;Hong, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2012
  • For traffic safety, it is imperative for motorists to secure their clear view and to maintain a similar speed with others while driving in a lane. Large-sized vehicles at lower speeds, however, are likely to increase the risk of accident when they share a lane with cars. Although to overcome this complication the Korean Road Traffic Act established rules for the safe use of roads, the reality is that the rules are seldom observed strictly. In this light, this study was designed to analyze the severity of truck-involved accidents, thereby providing justification for the need of truck-designated lanes and thus contributing to measuring road safety more precisely. A binomial logistic regression model was applied to analyze the severity of truck-involved accidents. The analysis showed that several variables affect the severity of truck-involved accidents on freeways; i.e., violation against the rule of truck-designated lanes, weather, difference between daytime and nighttime, and parking on road shoulder. Moreover, the strong enforcement will be needed to make motorists observe the rule, because a Wald statistical test showed that the violation against the rule of truck-designated lanes has the largest influence on the severity.