The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
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Analysis-based Pedestrian Traffic Incident Analysis Based on Logistic Regression

로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 노인 보행자 교통사고 요인 분석

  • Siwon Kim (Dept. of Dept. of Transportation Eng., Ajou University) ;
  • Jeongwon Gil (Dept. of Dept. of Transportation Eng., Ajou University) ;
  • Jaekyung Kwon (Dept. of Dept. of Transportation Eng., Ajou University) ;
  • Jae seong Hwang (Dept. of Dept. of Transportation Research Center., Ajou University) ;
  • Choul ki Lee (Dept. of Dept. of Transportation Eng., Ajou University)
  • 김시원 (아주대학교 일반대학원 교통공학과) ;
  • 길정원 (아주대학교 일반대학원 교통공학과) ;
  • 권재경 (아주대학교 일반대학원 교통공학과) ;
  • 황재성 (아주대학교 교통연구센터) ;
  • 이철기 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2024.03.06
  • Accepted : 2024.04.18
  • Published : 2024.04.30
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Abstract

The characteristics of elderly traffic accidents were identified by reflecting the situation of the elderly population in Korea, which is entering an ultra-aging society, and the relationship between independent and dependent variables was analyzed by classifying traffic accidents of serious or higher and traffic accidents of minor or lower in elderly pedestrian traffic accidents using binomial variables. Data collection, processing, and variable selection were performed by acquiring data from the elderly pedestrian traffic accident analysis system (TAAS) for the past 10 years (from 13 to 22 years), and basic statistics and analysis by accident factors were performed. A total of 15 influencing variables were derived by applying the logistic regression model, and the influencing variables that have the greatest influence on the probability of a traffic accident involving severe or higher elderly pedestrians were derived. After that, statistical tests were performed to analyze the suitability of the logistic model, and a method for predicting the probability of a traffic accident according to the construction of a prediction model was presented.

초고령화 사회로 진입하고 있는 대한민국 노인 인구의 상황을 반영하여 노인 교통사고의 특성을 파악하고, 이항형 변수를 활용하여 노인 보행자 교통사고에서 발생한 중상 이상의 교통사고와 경상 이하의 교통사고를 구분하여 독립변수와 종속변수의 관계를 분석하였다. 도로교통공단 교통사고분석시스템(TAAS)에서 지난 10년간('3년~'22년)의 노인 보행자 교통사고 자료를 구득하여 데이터 수집, 가공, 변수 선정을 수행하였으며, 기초 통계 및 사고 요인별 분석을 실시하였다. 로지스틱 회귀분석 모형을 적용하여 총 15개의 영향 변수를 도출하였고 노인 보행자 중상이상의 교통사고 발생 확률에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 영향 변수들을 도출하였다. 이후, 로지스틱 모형의 정확도 분석을 위해 통계적 검정을 수행하였으며, 노인 보행자 교통사고에 영향을 미치는 변수를 도출 및 예측모형 구축에 따른 교통사고 발생확률 예측 방법을 제시하였다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2023년도 정부(경찰청)의 재원으로 과학치안진흥센터의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(No.092021C28S01000, 자율주행 혼재 시 도로교통 통합관제시스템 및 운영기술 개발)

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