• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.133-143
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• 2012

PURPOSES: Using the collected data for crash, traffic volume, and design elements on ramps between 2007 and 2009, this research effort was initiated to develop traffic crash prediction models for expressway ramps. METHODS: Three negative binomial regression models and three zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for individual ramp types, including direct, semi-direct and loop, respectively. For validating the developed models, authors compared the estimated crash frequencies with actual crash frequencies of twelve randomly selected interchanges, the ramps of which have not been used for model developing. RESULTS: The results show that the negative binomial regression models for direct, semi-direct and loop ramps showed 60.3%, 63.8% and 48.7% error rates on average whereas the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models showed 82.1%, 120.4% and 57.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Conclusively, the negative binomial regression models worked better in traffic crash prediction than the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for estimating the frequency of traffic accidents on expressway ramps.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.331-347
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the recreational sea fishing in the Yellow Sea using count data model. For estimating consumer surplus, we used several count data model of travel cost recreation demand such as a poisson model(PM), a negative binomial model(NBM), a truncated poisson model(TPM), and a truncated negative binomial model(TNBM). Model results show that there is no exist the over-dispersion problem and a NBM was statistically more suitable than the other models. All parameters estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. The NBM was applied to estimate the travel demand and consumer surplus. The consumer surplus pre trip was estimated to be 254,453won, total consumer surplus per person and per year 1,536,896won.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.79-101
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the Songieong Beach in Off-season, using a Individual Travel Cost Model(ITCM). Songieong Beach is located in Busan but far away from city. These days, however, the increased rate of traffic inflow to the Songieong beach and the five-day working week are reflected in the trend analysis. Moreover, people have changed psychological value. For that reason, visitors are on the increase on the beach in off-season. The ITCM is applied to estimate non-market value or environmental Good like a Contingent Valuation Method and Hedonic Price Model etc. The ITCM was derived from the Count Data Model(i.e. Poisson and Negative Binomial model). So this paper compares Poisson and negative binomial count data models to measure the tourism demands. The data for the study were collected from the Songjeong Beach on visitors over the a week from November 1 through November 23, 2006. Interviewers were instructed to interview only individuals. So the sample was taken in 113. A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. This paper analyzes the effects of determinants on visitors' demand for exhibition using a class of maximum-likelihood regression estimators for count data from truncated samples, The count data and truncated models are used primarily to explain non-negative integer and truncation properties of tourist trips as suggested by the economic valuation literature. The results suggest that the truncated negative binomial model is improved overdispersion problem and more preferred than the other models in the study. This paper is not the same as the others. One thing is that Estimating Value of the Beach in off-season. The other thing is this study emphasizes in particular 'travel cost' that is not only monetary cost but also including opportunity cost of 'travel time'. According to the truncated negative binomial model, estimates the Consumer Surplus(CS) values per trip of about 199,754 Korean won and the total economic value was estimated to be 1,288,680 Korean won.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.737-745
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• 2010

In this paper, various methods for finding confidence intervals for the p of binomial parameter are reviewed. We compare the performance of several confidence interval estimates in terms of actual coverage probability by small sample Monte Carlo simulation.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.109-116
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• 1988

This study was aimed at determining a regime of flow through rubble mound dike consisted of all sized quarrystons, and deriving a relationship between hydraulic gradient (I) and mean flow velocity (V) through the dike. The analysis was carried out with the data observed after final gap closing of the Haenam Sea dike from May, 6 to May, 14, 1987. The resu]ts are summarized as follows: 1. The regime of flow would be defined as the turbulent flow. 2. As to the relationships, two kinds of formula that are exponential and binomial were obtained. Exponential formula: I=2.099V 1.2888 Binomial formula: I=0.6113V+5.5235V$^2$ 3. Correlation coefficient of the former was 0.824 and that of the latter was 0.821, and the deviations between observed data and estimated were 0.0070 and 0.0064 respectively. 4. Comparing the correlation coefficient, both the equations have the same correlation coefficients, but in case of the deviation the binomial equation was better than the exponential equation. Therefore, the binomial equation is proposed for analyzing the flow through rubble mound dike.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.271-280
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• 2009

For bivariate binomial data with both intra and inter-class correlation, Danaher and Hardie (2005) proposed a bivariate beta-binomial model. However, the model is limited to the situation where the intra-class correlation is strictly positive. Thus it might be seriously inadequate for data with a negative intra-class correlation. Several authors have considered generalized binomial distributions covering a wider range of intra-class correlation which could relax the possible model restrictions imposed. Among others there are the additive/multiplicative and the beta/extended beta binomial model. In this study, bivariate models of the Sarmanov (1966) type are formed by combining each of those univariate models to take care of the inter-class correlation, and are evaluated in terms of the goodness-of-fit. As a result, B-mB and B-ebB are fitted, successfully, to real data and that B-mB, which has a wider permissible range than B-ebB for the intra-class correlation is relatively preferred.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.199-205
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• 1999

This paper discusses the generalized mixed-effects model for the analysis of overdispersed binomial data. Sometimes certain types of sampling designs or genetic characters of experimental units can be regarded as factors of extra binomial variation. For such cases, this paper suggests models with one or two random effects to explain overdispersion caused by those affecting factors and shows how to test for a model adequacy based on deviance.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.397-410
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• 2007

For the two groups data from multivariate binomial distribution, we consider a bootstrap approach to inferring the simultaneous confidence level and its standard error of a collection of the dependent confidence intervals for the difference of proportions with an experimentwise error rate at the a level are presented. The bootstrap method is used to estimate the simultaneous confidence probability for the difference of proportions.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.817-827
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• 2000

In this paper, we investigate the Bayesian approach to random effect binomial regression models with improper prior due to the absence of information on parameter. We also propose a method of estimating the posterior moments and prediction and discuss some general methods for studying model assessment. The methodology is illustrated with Crowder's Seeds Data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to overcome the computational difficulties.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.131-138
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• 1982

Analogous to Singh's (1978) characterization of positive-Poisson distributioin and Shanmugam and Singh's (1992) characterization of logarithmic series distribution, a characterization and its statistical application of the negative binomial distribution truncated at zero are given in this paper. While it is known that under certain conditions the negative binomial distribution truncted at zero approaches the positive-Poisson and the logarithmic series distributions, we show here that the results of this paper approach in limit the results of Singh, and Shanmugam and Singh, respectively. Using the biologicla data from Sampford (1955), we illusrate our results. Also, expressions are explicitly given to test the hypothesis whether a random sample is indeed from a geometric distribution.