International Journal of Highway Engineering (한국도로학회논문집)

Korean Society of Road Engineers (한국도로학회)
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Traffic Crash Prediction Models for Expressway Ramps

고속도로 연결로의 교통사고예측모형 개발

  • 최윤환 (한국도로공사 사업본부) ;
  • 오영태 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과) ;
  • 최기주 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과) ;
  • 이철기 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과) ;
  • 윤일수 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2012.07.12
  • Accepted : 2012.09.27
  • Published : 2012.10.15
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Abstract

PURPOSES: Using the collected data for crash, traffic volume, and design elements on ramps between 2007 and 2009, this research effort was initiated to develop traffic crash prediction models for expressway ramps. METHODS: Three negative binomial regression models and three zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for individual ramp types, including direct, semi-direct and loop, respectively. For validating the developed models, authors compared the estimated crash frequencies with actual crash frequencies of twelve randomly selected interchanges, the ramps of which have not been used for model developing. RESULTS: The results show that the negative binomial regression models for direct, semi-direct and loop ramps showed 60.3%, 63.8% and 48.7% error rates on average whereas the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models showed 82.1%, 120.4% and 57.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Conclusively, the negative binomial regression models worked better in traffic crash prediction than the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for estimating the frequency of traffic accidents on expressway ramps.

Keywords

References

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