• Title/Summary/Keyword: bayesian MCMC

Search Result 147, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Bayesian Inferences for Software Reliability Models Based on Beta-Mixture Mean Value Functions

  • Nam, Seung-Min;Kim, Ki-Woong;Cho, Sin-Sup;Yeo, In-Kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.21 no.5
    • /
    • pp.835-843
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this paper, we investigate a Bayesian inference for software reliability models based on mean value functions which take the form of the mixture of beta distribution functions. The posterior simulation via the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is used to produce estimates of posterior properties. Its applicability is illustrated with two real data sets. We compute the predictive distribution and the marginal likelihood of various models to compare the performance of them. The model comparison results show that the model based on the beta-mixture performs better than other models.

Bayesian Analysis of a New Skewed Multivariate Probit for Correlated Binary Response Data

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.613-635
    • /
    • 2001
  • This paper proposes a skewed multivariate probit model for analyzing a correlated binary response data with covariates. The proposed model is formulated by introducing an asymmetric link based upon a skewed multivariate normal distribution. The model connected to the asymmetric multivariate link, allows for flexible modeling of the correlation structure among binary responses and straightforward interpretation of the parameters. However, complex likelihood function of the model prevents us from fitting and analyzing the model analytically. Simulation-based Bayesian inference methodologies are provided to overcome the problem. We examine the suggested methods through two data sets in order to demonstrate their performances.

  • PDF

BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL WITH SKEWED ELLIPTICAL DISTRIBUTION

  • Chung, Youn-Shik;Dipak K. Dey;Yang, Tae-Young;Jang, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.32 no.4
    • /
    • pp.425-448
    • /
    • 2003
  • Meta-analysis refers to quantitative methods for combining results from independent studies in order to draw overall conclusions. We consider hierarchical models including selection models under a skewed heavy tailed error distribution proposed originally by Chen et al. (1999) and Branco and Dey (2001). These rich classes of models combine the information of independent studies, allowing investigation of variability both between and within studies, and incorporate weight function. Here, the testing for the skewness parameter is discussed. The score test statistic for such a test can be shown to be expressed as the posterior expectations. Also, we consider the detail computational scheme under skewed normal and skewed Student-t distribution using MCMC method. Finally, we introduce one example from Johnson (1993)'s real data and apply our proposed methodology. We investigate sensitivity of our results under different skewed errors and under different prior distributions.

Bayes Inference for the Spatial Bilinear Time Series Model with Application to Epidemic Data

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, Duk-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.641-650
    • /
    • 2012
  • Spatial time series data can be viewed as a set of time series simultaneously collected at a number of spatial locations. This paper studies Bayesian inferences in a spatial time bilinear model with a Gibbs sampling algorithm to overcome problems in the numerical analysis techniques of a spatial time series model. For illustration, the data set of mumps cases reported from the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention monthly over the years 2001~2009 are selected for analysis.

The Exponentiated Weibull-Geometric Distribution: Properties and Estimations

  • Chung, Younshik;Kang, Yongbeen
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.147-160
    • /
    • 2014
  • In this paper, we introduce the exponentiated Weibull-geometric (EWG) distribution which generalizes two-parameter exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution introduced by Mudholkar et al. (1995). This proposed distribution is obtained by compounding the exponentiated Weibull with geometric distribution. We derive its cumulative distribution function (CDF), hazard function and the density of the order statistics and calculate expressions for its moments and the moments of the order statistics. The hazard function of the EWG distribution can be decreasing, increasing or bathtub-shaped among others. Also, we give expressions for the Renyi and Shannon entropies. The maximum likelihood estimation is obtained by using EM-algorithm (Dempster et al., 1977; McLachlan and Krishnan, 1997). We can obtain the Bayesian estimation by using Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Also, we give application with real data set to show the flexibility of the EWG distribution. Finally, summary and discussion are mentioned.

Bayesian Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Using Climate Information

  • Moon, Young-Il;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2007.05a
    • /
    • pp.1441-1444
    • /
    • 2007
  • It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of hydrological extreme events. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methodologies are not devised to account for nonstationarity that arises due to variation in exogenous factors of the causal structure. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis to consider the exogenous factors that can influence on the frequency of extreme floods. The sea surface temperatures, predicted GCM precipitation, climate indices and snow pack are considered as potential predictors of flood risk. The parameters of the model are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The predictors are compared in terms of the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters associated with estimated flood frequency distributions.

  • PDF

Robust Bayesian analysis for autoregressive models

  • Ryu, Hyunnam;Kim, Dal Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.26 no.2
    • /
    • pp.487-493
    • /
    • 2015
  • Time series data sometimes show violation of normal assumptions. For cases where the assumption of normality is untenable, more exible models can be adopted to accommodate heavy tails. The exponential power distribution (EPD) is considered as possible candidate for errors of time series model that may show violation of normal assumption. Besides, the use of exible models for errors like EPD might be able to conduct the robust analysis. In this paper, we especially consider EPD as the exible distribution for errors of autoregressive models. Also, we represent this distribution as scale mixture of uniform and this form enables efficient Bayesian estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Determinacy on a Maximum Resolution in Wavelet Series

  • Park, Chun-Gun;Kim, Yeong-Hwa;Yang, Wan-Youn
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.467-476
    • /
    • 2004
  • Recently, an approximation of a wavelet series has been developed in the analyses of an unknown function. Most of articles have been studied on thresholding and shrinkage methods for its wavelet coefficients based on (non)parametric and Bayesian methods when the sample size is considered as a maximum resolution in wavelet series. In this paper, regardless of the sample size, we are focusing only on the choice of a maximum resolution in wavelet series. We propose a Bayesian approach to the choice of a maximum resolution based on the linear combination of the wavelet basis functions.

  • PDF

A spatial heterogeneity mixed model with skew-elliptical distributions

  • Farzammehr, Mohadeseh Alsadat;McLachlan, Geoffrey J.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.29 no.3
    • /
    • pp.373-391
    • /
    • 2022
  • The distribution of observations in most econometric studies with spatial heterogeneity is skewed. Usually, a single transformation of the data is used to approximate normality and to model the transformed data with a normal assumption. This assumption is however not always appropriate due to the fact that panel data often exhibit non-normal characteristics. In this work, the normality assumption is relaxed in spatial mixed models, allowing for spatial heterogeneity. An inference procedure based on Bayesian mixed modeling is carried out with a multivariate skew-elliptical distribution, which includes the skew-t, skew-normal, student-t, and normal distributions as special cases. The methodology is illustrated through a simulation study and according to the empirical literature, we fit our models to non-life insurance consumption observed between 1998 and 2002 across a spatial panel of 103 Italian provinces in order to determine its determinants. Analyzing the posterior distribution of some parameters and comparing various model comparison criteria indicate the proposed model to be superior to conventional ones.

SIMPLE RANKED SAMPLING SCHEME: MODIFICATION AND APPLICATION IN THE THEORY OF ESTIMATION OF ERLANG DISTRIBUTION

  • RAFIA GULZAR;IRSA SAJJAD;M. YOUNUS BHAT;SHAKEEL UL REHMAN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
    • /
    • v.41 no.2
    • /
    • pp.449-468
    • /
    • 2023
  • This paper deals in the study of the estimation of the parameters of Erlang distribution based on rank set sampling and some of its modifications. Here we considered Maximum Likelihood (ML) and the Bayesian technique to estimate the shape and scale parameter of Erlang distribution based on RSS and its some modifications such as ERSS, MRSS, and MRSSu. The derivation for unknown parameters of Erlang distribution is well presented using normal approximation to the asymptotic distribution of ML estimators. But due to the complexity involves in the integral, the Bayes estimator of unknown parameters is obtained using MCMC method. Further, we compared the MSE of estimation in different sampling schemes with different set sizes and cycle size. A real-life data application is also given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed scheme.