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A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

Surgical Technique for Korean Artificial Heart(AnyHeart) Implantation Using a Right Thoracotomy Approach (우측 개흉술을 이용한 한국형 인공심장(AnyHeart)의 이식기법)

  • Son. Ho-Sung;Sun, Kyung;Shin, Jae-Seung;Lee, Sung-Ho;Jung, Jae-Seung;Lee, Hye-Won;Kim, Kwang-Taik;Kim, Seung-Chul;Won, Yong-Soon;Min, Byoung-Goo;Kim, Hyoung-Mook
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.329-335
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    • 2002
  • Background: The surgical technique for biventricular assist device(BVAD) implantation has mainly consisted of cannulation procedures. A median sternotomy has been the technique of choice as it gives a surgeon an excellent exposure of the heart. However, considering that most patients require a future sternotomy or already have a previous sternotomy, sternotomy-related complication remains a major concern in BVAD implantation. Based on this consideration as well as the clinical experiences of conventional heart surgery, the authors have hypothesized that the cardiac chambers for BVAD cannulation can be approached from the right side of the heart. The purpose of this studs to develop a novel surgical technique of right thoracotomy for BVAD implantation in an animals study. Material and Method: For last two years, 16 (11 calves, 3 canines, and 2 sheep) out of 30 experimental animals with AnyHeart implantation underwent a right thoracotomy. The device was used as an implantable BVAD in 14 animals, a wearable BVAD in 1, and an implantable LVAD in 1. The chest cavity was entered through the 4th intercostal space or the 5th periosteal bed. As for the BVAD use, a right inflow cannula was inserted into the right atrial free wall and a right outflow cannula was grafted onto the main pulmonary artery. A left inflow cannula was inserted into the interatrial groove and a left outflow cannula was grafted on the innominate artery of the ascending aorta. The connecting tubes were brought out through the thoracotomy wound and connected to the pump located in the subcutaneous pocket at the right flank. Result: Except for the 5 animals for a lilting test or during the early learning curve, all recovered smoothly from the procedures. The inflow drainage allowed the pump output 6.5 L/min at the maximum with 3-3.5 L/min in an average. Of the survivors, there noted no procedure-related mortality or morbidity. Necropsy findings demonstrated the well-positioned cannula tips in the each cardiac chamber

Analysis of the Practical Reasoning Process Presented in Home Economics Textbooks of 2007 Revised Curriculum (2007년 개정 교육과정에 기초한 7학년 가정 교과서에 반영된 실천적 추론 과정의 분석)

  • Lee, Min-Jung;Yoo, Tae-Myung
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.109-138
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    • 2010
  • This study examined how practical reasoning process is reflected in the 2007 revised home economics textbook of the 7th grade that is being used in schools since 2010. For a textbook analysis of the components of practical reasoning process, 12 published textbooks were all analyzed, and analysis areas were decided by reconstructing the textbook system into introduction, body contents, learning activities, evaluation. Analysis criteria were extracted from the previous literatures. Practical reasoning process was classified into Valued Ends, Context and Background, Alternatives and Means, on sequence, and Action and Reflection. As a result of analyzing categories and problems that practical reasoning process is reflected in the textbook, firstly, here was a category, which Valued Ends was absent in the practical reasoning process. In the relevant category, general problem solving progress and practical reasoning process could not be differentiated, and activity was developed with 'strategies for solution' as objective. Second, there was a category that the practical reasoning process was reflected in body contents. In this category, knowledge, concept, principle, and theory were insufficiently dealt with. Third, there was a category that reflected components of practical reasoning process but was covered with general problem solving process. Fourth, there was a category that described theme of sub-unit and body contents from the different curriculum perspectives. A curriculum perspective works as the foundation of preparing class contents or consistency of methods when developing lessons. Therefore, confusion might occur when a teacher plans a class with this kind of textbook. Fifth, a category that suggested partial components of practical reasoning process was shown the most and this category is difficult to maximize effects of practical reasoning process.

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The application of photographs resources for constructive social studies (구성주의적 사회과 교육을 위한 사진자료 활용방안)

  • Lee, Ki-Bok;Hwang, Hong-Seop
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.117-138
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    • 2000
  • This study is, from the view point of constructive social studies which is the foundation of the 7th curriculum, to explore whether there is any viable program and to investigate it by which students, using photo resources in social studies, can organize their knowledge in the way of self-directed thinking. The main results are as follows: If it is a principle of knowledge construction process of constructive social studies that individual construction (cognitive construction) develops into communal construction(social construction) and yet communal construction develops itself, interacting with individual construction, it will be meet the objectives of social studies. In social studies, photos are a powerful communication tool. communicating with photos enables to invoke not only the visual aspects but also invisible aspects of social phenomena from photos. It, therefore, can help develop thinking power through inquiry learning, which is one of the emphasis of the 7th curriculum. Having analyzed photo resources appeared on the regional textbooks in elementary social studies, they have been appeared that even though the importance and amount of space photo resources occupy per page is big with regard to total resources, most of the photos failed to lad to self-directed thinking but just assistant material in stead. Besides, there appeared some problems with the title, variety, size, position, tone of color, visibility of the photos, and further with the combination of the photos. Developing of photo resources for constructive social studies is to overcome some problems inherent in current text books and to reflect the theoretical background of the 7th curriculum. To develop the sort of photo that can realize the point just mentioned, it would be highly preferable to provide photo database to facilitate study with homepage through web-based interaction. To take advantage of constructive photo resources, the instruction is strategized in four stages, intuition, conflict, accommodation, and equilibration stage. With the advancement of the era of image culture, curriculum developers are required to develop dynamic, multidimensional digital photos rather than static photos when develop text books.

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용용과 모델 구성을 중시하는 수학과 교육 과정 개발 방안 탐색

  • Jeong Eun Sil
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 1991
  • This study intends to provide some desirable suggestions for the development of application oriented mathematics curriculum. More specific objects of this study is: 1. To identify the meaning of application and modelling in mathematics curriculm. 2. To illuminate the historical background of and trends in application and modelling in the mathematics curricula. 3. To consider the reasons for including application and modelling in the mathematics curriculum. 4. To find out some implication for developing application oriented mathematics curriculum. The meaning of application and modelling is clarified as follows: If an arbitrary area of extra-mathematical reality is submitted to any kind of treatment which invovles mathematical concepts, methods, results, topics, we shall speak of the process of applying mathemtaics to that area. For the result of the process we shall use the term an application of mathematics. Certain objects, relations between them, and structures belonging to the area under consideration are selected and translated into mathemtaical objects, relation and structures, which are said to represent the original ones. Now, the concept of mathematical model is defined as the collection of mathematical objcets, . relations, structures, and so on, irrespective of what area is being represented by the model and how. And the full process of constructing a mathematical model of a given area is called as modelling, or model-building. During the last few decades an enormous extension of the use of mathemtaics in other disciplines has occurred. Nowadays the concept of a mathematical model is often used and interest has turned to the dynamic interaction between the real world and mathematics, to the process translating a real situation into a mathematical model and vice versa. The continued growing importance of mathematics in everyday practice has not been reflected to the same extent in the teaching and learning of mathematics in school. In particular the world-wide 'New Maths Movement' of the 19608 actually caused a reduction of the importance of application and modelling in mathematics teaching. Eventually, in the 1970s, there was a reaction to the excessive formallism of 'New Maths', and a return in many countries to the importance of application and connections to the reality in mathematics teaching. However, the main emphasis was put on mathematical models. Applicaton and modelling should be part of the mathematics curriculum in order to: 1. Convince students, who lacks visible relevance to their present and future lives, that mathematical activities are worthwhile, and motivate their studies. 2. Assist the acqusition and understanding of mathematical ideas, concepts, methods, theories and provide illustrations and interpretations of them. 3. Prepare students for being able to practice application and modelling as private individuals or as citizens, at present or in the future. 4. Foster in students the ability to utilise mathematics in complex situations. Of these four reasons the first is rather defensive, serving to protect or strengthen the position of mathematics, whereas the last three imply a positive interest in application and modelling for their own sake or for their capacity to improve mathematics teaching. Suggestions, recomendations and implications for developing application oriented mathematics curriculum were made as follows: 1. Many applications and modelling case studies suitable for various levels should be investigated and published for the teacher. 2. Mathematics education both for general and vocational students should encompass application and modelling activities, of a constructive as well as analytical and critical nature. 3. Application and modelling activities should. be introduced in mathematics curriculum through the interdisciplinary integrated approach. 4. What are the central ideas of, and what are less-important topics of application-oriented curriculum should be studied and selected. 5. For any mathematics teacher, application and modelling should form part of pre- and in-service education.

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KoFlux's Progress: Background, Status and Direction (KoFlux 역정: 배경, 현황 및 향방)

  • Kwon, Hyo-Jung;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.241-263
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    • 2010
  • KoFlux is a Korean network of micrometeorological tower sites that use eddy covariance methods to monitor the cycles of energy, water, and carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the key terrestrial ecosystems in Korea. KoFlux embraces the mission of AsiaFlux, i.e. to bring Asia's key ecosystems under observation to ensure quality and sustainability of life on earth. The main purposes of KoFlux are to provide (1) an infrastructure to monitor, compile, archive and distribute data for the science community and (2) a forum and short courses for the application and distribution of knowledge and data between scientists including practitioners. The KoFlux community pursues the vision of AsiaFlux, i.e., "thinking community, learning frontiers" by creating information and knowledge of ecosystem science on carbon, water and energy exchanges in key terrestrial ecosystems in Asia, by promoting multidisciplinary cooperations and integration of scientific researches and practices, and by providing the local communities with sustainable ecosystem services. Currently, KoFlux has seven sites in key terrestrial ecosystems (i.e., five sites in Korea and two sites in the Arctic and Antarctic). KoFlux has systemized a standardized data processing based on scrutiny of the data observed from these ecosystems and synthesized the processed data for constructing database for further uses with open access. Through publications, workshops, and training courses on a regular basis, KoFlux has provided an agora for building networks, exchanging information among flux measurement and modelling experts, and educating scientists in flux measurement and data analysis. Despite such persistent initiatives, the collaborative networking is still limited within the KoFlux community. In order to break the walls between different disciplines and boost up partnership and ownership of the network, KoFlux will be housed in the National Center for Agro-Meteorology (NCAM) at Seoul National University in 2011 and provide several core services of NCAM. Such concerted efforts will facilitate the augmentation of the current monitoring network, the education of the next-generation scientists, and the provision of sustainable ecosystem services to our society.

Properties of the Silkworm (Bombyx mori) Dongchunghacho, a Newly Developed Korean Medicinal Insect-borne Mushroom: Mass-production and Pharmacological Actions (한국에서 개발된 곤충유래 약용버섯인 누에동충하초의 생산기술개발 및 약리학적 특성)

  • Lee, Sang Mong;Kim, Yong Gyun;Park, Hyean Cheal;Kim, Keun Ki;Son, Hong Joo;Hong, Chang Oh;Park, Nam Sook
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.247-266
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    • 2017
  • Cordyceps is a traditional Chinese medicinal herb well-known in China, Korea and Japan since B.C. 2,000. The original entomopathogenic fungus, Cordyceps sinensis belonging to the genus Cordyceps could not be found inside Korean peninsula due to the absence of the host insect for the corresponding entomogenous fungus. The development of artificial production methods of Korean type Cordyceps using the silkworm Bombyx mori as in vivo culture medium for the the entomopathogenic fungus Paecilomyces tenuipes is the first, and wonderful occasion in the research history of insect industry of this global world. The aim of this article is to review the historical research background, mass-production methods, and pharmacological effects of the silkworm-dongchunghacho (Paecilomyces tenuipes) which is a newly developed Korean medicinal insect-borne mushroom, and another non-insect-borne medicinal mushroom (Cordyceps militaris and Cordyceps pruinosa). Their biological actions include anti-tumor, immunostimulating, anti-fatigue, anti-stress, anti-oxidant, anti-aging, anti-diabetic, anti-inflammatory, anti-thrombosis, hypolipidaemic and insecticidal effects. The bioactive principles are protein-bound polysaccharides (hexose, hexosamin), cordycepin, D-manitol, acidic polysaccharide etc. Protein-bound polysaccharides and n-butanol fractions were demonstrated to show a significant anti-tumor activities but did not show a cytotoxicities. D-mannitol exhibited a significant prolongation of the life span in tumor bearing mice. Ergosterol did not show an efficient anti-tumor activity, but showed a significant phagocytosis enhancing activity. Anti-tumor activity of silkworm-dongchunghacho might be attributed to immuno-stimulating activities rather than cytotoxic effects [164]. Also this review comprises the breeding of Dongchunghacho varieties, optimization of culture conditions, improvement of learning and memory by Dongchunghacho, application of them as foods and chemical constituents.

A Study on the Development of Multimedia CAI in Smoking Prevention for Adolescents (청소년 흡연예방을 위한 멀티미디어 CAI 개발)

  • Lee, Sook-Ja;Park, Tae-Jin;Joung, Young-Il;Cho, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.35-61
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    • 2003
  • Background: The purpose of this study was to develop a structured and individualized smoking prevention program for adolescents by utilizing a multimedia computer-assisted instruction model and to empirically assess its effect. Method: For the purpose of this study, a guide book of smoking prevention program for middle and high school students was developed as the first step. The contents of this book were summarized and developed into an actual multimedia CAI smoking prevention program according to the Gane & Briggs instructional design and Keller's ARCS motivation design models as the second step. At the final step, the short-tenn effects of this program were examined by an experiment. This experiment were made for middle school and high school students and the quasi experimental design was the pretest - intervention - posttest. The measured data was attitude, belief, and knowledge about smoking, interest in the program, and learning motivation. Result: The results of this study were as follows: First, the guide book of a smoking prevention program was developed and the existing literature on adolescent smoking was analyzed to develop the content of the guide book. Then the curriculum was divided into three main domains on tobacco and smoking history, smoking and health, adolescent smoking and each main domain was divided into sub-domains. Second, the contents of the guide book were translated into a multimedia CAI program of smoking prevention througn Powerpoint software according to the instructional design theory. The characteristics of this program were interactive, learner controllable, and structured The program contents consisted of entrance(5.6%), history of tobacco(30%), smoking and health(38.9%), adolescent smoking(22.2%), video(4.7%), and exit(1.6%). Multimedia materials consisted of text(121), sound and music, image(still 84, dynamic 32), and videogram(6). The program took about 40 minutes to complete. Third, the results on analysis of the program effects were as follows: 1) There was significant knowledge increase between the pre-test and post-test with total mean difference 3.44, and the highest increase was in the 1st grade students of high school(p<0.001). 2) There was significant decrease in general belief on smoking between the pre-test and post-test with total mean difference 0.28. In subgroup analysis, the difference was significantly higher in the 1st grade of high school (p<0.001), low income class (p<0.001), and daily smokers (p<0.01). 3) There was no significant difference in attitudes on his personal smoking between the pre-test and post-test. 4) The interest in the program seemed to lower as students got older. The score of motivation toward this prevention program was the highest in the middle school 3rd grade. Among sub-domains of motivation, the confidence score was the highest. Conclusion: To be most effective, the smoking prevention program for adolescents should utilize the most up-to-date and accurate information on smoking, and then instructional material should be developed so that the learners can approach the program with enjoyment. Through this study, a guide book with the most up-to-date information was developed and the multimedia CAI smoking prevention program was also developed based on the guide book. The program showed positive effect on the students' knowledge and belief in smoking.

Plans for Teaching and Learning of Learner-centered Activities in Korean Verse Education (시조교육의 현황과 학습자 활동 중심의 교수$\cdot$학습 모형 - 고등학교 국어 교과서 수록 작품 <시조>를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang Myong-Hye
    • Sijohaknonchong
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    • v.20
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    • pp.141-171
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    • 2004
  • Even though only 3 sijo are in high school textbook. through these 3 sijo each type can be understood in that each represents pyung sijo, sasul sijo, and present sijo. To learn with learner-centered activities, which aim for full knowledge acquisition regarding literary works, as the preparing stage, students can learn what theyll learn by teachers. Sijo are, so to speak, formed with three chapters, and stand for the world that is colorless, scentless, and flavorless. So, the theme can be found with ease. Compared with other genres, sijo can be formed creating background with ease. Moreover, sijo are not too long, so learners can paraphrase it. Sijo that express private experiences with the everyday language can be related to other genres or everyday language. So, sijo are last to present. In the teaching phase, on the gradation of concretion and gradation, writing or presentation activities are presented. After classroom, learners keep a reaction journal. In the phase of concretion and gradation, learners can apprehend that typical differences of the emotions of poetic speakers is from typical differences, even though emotions of poetic speakers of (1)$\cdot$(2)$\cdot$(3) that is each stand for pyung sijo, sasul sijo, and present sijo are roughly summarized loneliness, desolateness, and gloominess. Moreover, these typical differences are from social, political. and cultural settings, namely, the differences of contexts. In this teaching model. learners should prepare for content regarding context and text before the class. Teachers should act as an assistant to help learners pre-understand their subjective experiences and imaginations.

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A Study on How Reading Comic Books Affects Creativity (만화 읽기가 창의력 향상에 미치는 연구)

  • Jang, Jin-Young;Park, Hye-Ri
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.36
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    • pp.437-467
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    • 2014
  • This study is intended to reveal reading comic books helps improve creativity. Though the long-lasting negative recognition towards comic books has positively changed these days, we need a ground upon which the social recognition needs improvement in that children's comic books have been used as a learning tool. Its introduction points out that there has been shortage of empirical researches on comic book reading, and as one of the empirical research methods, presents a method of comparative analysis on comic book reading, school study, and creativity tests via survey. The theoretical background in the 2nd chapter, first, puts emphasis on the significance of the creativity theory among all the other theories related to creativity, which focuses on problem-solving capacity. Second, it theoretically reviews the meaning which 'fun' and 'interest' have in development of creativity in the context of developmental process of the modern educational theories. Third, it empathizes that traits of reading comic books start off with 'fun' and 'interest', that awareness of reality gets expanded via the process of characters making their way through a strange world with empathy and absorption, and that comic book reading has to do with creativity. Fourth, it presents a model questionnaire with which to study relationship between comic books and creativity in an empirical way. The analysis on the survey outcome in the 3rd chapter shows, first, that smart students read many comic books, not to mention that studying helps improve creativity, which indicates above all, comic book reading and improvement of creativity are not negatively related, but are mutually complementary. Second, that creativity enhanced by reading comic books is higher than that enhanced by studying, which may mean comic book reading is more effective than studying in developing creativity. It has drawn a conclusion based upon these results, that reading comic books bears positive efficacy on both studying and developing creativity. Standing on this conclusion, it proposes it necessary to develop methods by grades of educating how to read comic books and to provide a recommended list of comic books to read.