• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.397-405
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• 1997

Recently maximum likelihood estimators using unconditional likelihood function are used for testing unit roots. When one wants to use this method the determinant term of initial values in the multivariate unconditional likelihood function produces a complicated function of the elements in the coefficient matrix and variance matrix. In this paper an approximation of the determinant term is calculated and based on this aproximation an approximated unconditional likelihood function is calculated. The approximated unconditional maximum likelihood estimators can be used to test for unit roots. When multivariate process has one unit root the limiting distribution obtained by this method and the limiting distribution using exact unconditional likelihood function are the same.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.783-791
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• 2004

In this paper we review recent developments in nonlinear time series modeling on both conditional mean and conditional variance. Traditional linear model in conditional mean is referred to as ARMA(autoregressive moving average) process investigated by Box and Jenkins(1976). Nonlinear mean models such as threshold, exponential and random coefficient models are reviewed and their characteristics are explained. In terms of conditional variances, ARCH(autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) class is considered as typical linear models. As nonlinear variants of ARCH, diverse nonlinear models appearing in recent literature including threshold ARCH, beta-ARCH and Box-Cox ARCH models are remarked. Also, a class of unified nonlinear models are considered and parameter estimation for that class is briefly discussed.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2005년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.159-165
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• 2005

Recently, as a result of the growing interest in modelling stationary processes with discrete marginal distributions, several models for integer valued time series have been proposed in the literature. One of theses models is the integer-valued autoregressive(INAR) models. However, when modelling with integer-valued autoregressive processes, there is not yet distributional properties of forecasts, since INAR process contain an accrued level of complexity in using the Steutal and Van Harn(1979) thinning operator 'o'. In this study, a manageable expression for the asymptotic mean square error of predicting more than one-step ahead from an estimated poisson INAR(1) model is derived. And, we present a bootstrap methods developed for the calculation of forecast interval limits of INAR(p) model. Extensive finite sample Monte Carlo experiments are carried out to compare the performance of the several bootstrap procedures.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.431-442
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• 2018

This paper highlights the computational explosion issues in the autoregressive moving average approach of frequency estimation of sinusoidal data with a large sample size. A new algorithm is proposed to circumvent the computational explosion difficulty in the conditional least-square estimation method. Notice that sinusoidal pattern can be generated by a non-invertible non-stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. The computational explosion is shown to be closely related to the non-invertibility of the equivalent ARMA model. Simulation studies illustrate the computational explosion phenomenon and show that the proposed algorithm can efficiently overcome computational explosion difficulty. Real data example of sunspot number is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed algorithm to the time series data exhibiting sinusoidal pattern.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.38-57
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• 1989

본 논문에서는 무늬영상의 분류에 적합한 특징의 선택에 대한 방법을 소개하였다. N개의 이웃한 gray level들의 공간적인 관계는 자동저하함수로 모델화된다. 특징 무늬로부터 취해진 모델 변수들은 최소 자승법으로 예측된다. 이 방법으로 생체세포의 영상들을 분류시킬 수 있다. 열개의 서로 다른 생체세포의 무늬영상으로 실험한 결과 분류의 정확도를 92%까지 이루었다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제7권5호
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• pp.333-344
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• 2004

This paper illustrates application of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and the autoregressive (AR) model to simulate large wind pressures due to gusts on a low-rise building. In the POD analysis, the covariance of the ensemble of large wind pressures is employed to calculate the principal modes and coordinates. The POD principal coordinates are modeled using the AR process, and the fitted AR models are employed to generate the principal coordinates. The generated principal coordinates are then used to simulate large wind pressures. The results show that the structure characterizing large wind pressures is well represented by the dominant eigenmodes (up to the first fifteen eigenmodes). Also, wind pressures with large peak values are simulated very well using the dominant eigenmodes along with the principal coordinates generated by the AR models.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.57-65
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• 2011

Monitoring auto correlated processes is prevalent in recent manufacturing environments. As a proactive control for manufacturing processes is emphasized especially in the semiconductor industry, it is natural to monitor real-time status of equipment through sensor rather than resultant output status of the processes. Equipment's sensor data show various forms of correlation features. Among them, considerable amount of sensor data, statistically autocorrelated, is well represented by Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In this paper, we present a design method of statistical process control (SPC) used for monitoring processes represented by the ARMA model. The proposed method shows benefits in the power of detecting process changes, and considers robustness to ARMA modeling errors simultaneously. We prove benefits through Monte carlo simulation-based investigations.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.904-915
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• 2018

We demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict the unemployment rate, a real-world indicator. We present a novel method for predicting the unemployment rate using social media analysis based on natural language processing and statistical modeling. The system collects social media contents including news articles, blogs, and tweets written in Korean, and then extracts data for modeling using part-of-speech tagging and sentiment analysis techniques. The autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) and autoregressive with exogenous variables (ARX) models for unemployment rate prediction are fit using the analyzed data. The proposed method quantifies the social moods expressed in social media contents, whereas the existing methods simply present social tendencies. Our model derived a 27.9% improvement in error reduction compared to a Google Index-based model in the mean absolute percentage error metric.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.61-70
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• 2018

Modeling of the random effects covariance matrix in generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) is an issue in analysis of longitudinal categorical data because the covariance matrix can be high-dimensional and its estimate must satisfy positive-definiteness. To satisfy these constraints, we consider the autoregressive and moving average Cholesky decomposition (ARMACD) to model the covariance matrix. The ARMACD creates a more flexible decomposition of the covariance matrix that provides generalized autoregressive parameters, generalized moving average parameters, and innovation variances. In this paper, we analyze longitudinal count data with overdispersion using GLMMs. We propose negative binomial loglinear mixed models to analyze longitudinal count data and we also present modeling of the random effects covariance matrix using the ARMACD. Epilepsy data are analyzed using our proposed model.

• 대한전자공학회논문지
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.631-636
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• 1986

The self-tuning control theory which has so far been studied has the type of a moving average noise mode. In this paper we propose a self-tuning munimum varinace control of the plant with an autoregressive noise model. New identities are introduced to find a munimum variance control input, and the stability and convergence properties in a closed loop system are studied using the BIBO concepts and ODE method. Also the proposed algorithm is compared withe that of the original self-tuning control by computer simulation.