• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.57-79
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• 2016

It is a rising trend that the number of users using one of the social media channels, the Social Network Service, so called the SNS, is getting increased. As per to this social trend, more companies have interest in this networking platform and start to invest their funds in it. It has received much attention as a tool spreading and expanding the message that a company wants to deliver to its customers and has been recognized as an important channel in terms of the relationship marketing with them. The environment of media that is radically changing these days makes possible for companies to approach their customers in various ways. Particularly, the social network service, which has been developed rapidly, provides the environment that customers can freely talk about products. For companies, it also works as a channel that gives customized information to customers. To succeed in the online environment, companies need to not only build the relationship between companies and customers but focus on the relationship between customers as well. In response to the online environment with the continuous development of technology, companies have tirelessly made the novel marketing strategy. Especially, as the one-to-one marketing to customers become available, it is more important for companies to maintain the relationship marketing with their customers. Among many SNS, Facebook, which many companies use as a communication channel, provides a fan page service for each company that supports its business. Facebook fan page is the platform that the event, information and announcement can be shared with customers using texts, videos, and pictures. Companies open their own fan pages in order to inform their companies and businesses. Such page functions as the websites of companies and has a characteristic of their brand communities such as blogs as well. As Facebook has become the major communication medium with customers, companies recognize its importance as the effective marketing channel, but they still need to investigate their business performances by using Facebook. Although there are infinite potentials in Facebook fan page that even has a function as a community between users, which other platforms do not, it is incomplete to regard companies' Facebook fan pages as communities and analyze them. In this study, it explores the relationship among customers through the network of the Facebook fan page users. The previous studies on a company's Facebook fan page were focused on finding out the effective operational direction by analyzing the use state of the company. However, in this study, it draws out the structural variable of the network, which customer committment can be measured by applying the social network analysis methodology and investigates the influence of the structural characteristics of network on the business performance of companies in an empirical way. Through each company's Facebook fan page, the network of users who engaged in the communication with each company is exploited and it is the one-mode undirected binary network that respectively regards users and the relationship of them in terms of their marketing activities as the node and link. In this network, it draws out the structural variable of network that can explain the customer commitment, who pressed "like," made comments and shared the Facebook marketing message, of each company by calculating density, global clustering coefficient, mean geodesic distance, diameter. By exploiting companies' historical performance such as net income and Tobin's Q indicator as the result variables, this study investigates influence on companies' business performances. For this purpose, it collects the network data on the subjects of 54 companies among KOSPI-listed companies, which have posted more than 100 articles on their Facebook fan pages during the data collection period. Then it draws out the network indicator of each company. The indicator related to companies' performances is calculated, based on the posted value on DART website of the Financial Supervisory Service. From the academic perspective, this study suggests a new approach through the social network analysis methodology to researchers who attempt to study the business-purpose utilization of the social media channel. From the practical perspective, this study proposes the more substantive marketing performance measurements to companies performing marketing activities through the social media and it is expected that it will bring a foundation of establishing smart business strategies by using the network indicators.

• Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.233-244
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• 2008

In this study, the antioxidative effects, inhibitory effects on elastase and tyrosinase, and component analysis of Psidium guajava leaf extracts were investigated. The free radical (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl, DPPH) scavenging activities $(FSC_{50})$ of extract/fractions of Psidium guajava leaf were in the order: 50% ethanol extract $(7.05{\mu}g/mL)$ < ethyl acetate fraction $(3.36{\mu}g/mL)$ < deglycosylated flavonoid aglycone fraction $(3.24{\mu}g/mL)$. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) scavenging activities $(OSC_{50})$ of some Psidium guajava leaf extracts on ROS generated in $Fe^{3+}-EDTA/H_2O_2$ system were investigated using the luminol-dependent chemiluminescence assay. The order of ROS scavenging activities were 50% ethanol extract $(OSC_{50},\;2.17{\mu}g/mL)$ < ethyl acetate fraction $(0.64{\mu}g/mL)$ < deglycosylated flavonoid aglycone fraction $(3.39{\mu}g/mL)$. Aglycone fraction showed the most prominent ROS scavenging activity. The protective effects of extract/fractions of Psidium guajava leaf on the rose-bengal sensitized photohemolysis of human erythrocytes were investigated. The Psidium guajava leaf extracts suppressed photohemolysis in a concentration dependent manner $(1{\sim}10{\mu}g/mL)$, particularly deglycosylated flavonoid aglycone fraction exhibited the most prominent celluar protective effect ${\tau}_{50}\;107.5min\;at\;1{\mu}g/mL)$. Aglycone fraction obtained from the deglycosylation reaction of ethyl acetate fraction among the Psidium guajava leaf extracts, showed 1 band in TLC and 1 peak in HPLC experiments (360 nm). One component was identified as quercetin. TLC chromatogram of ethyl acetate fraction of Psidium guajava leaf extract revealed 5 bands and HPLC chromatogram showed 5 peaks, which were identified as quercetin 3-O-gentobioside (10.32%) , quercetin 3-O-${\beta}$-D-glucoside (isoquercitin, 13.30%), quercetin 3-O-${\beta}$-D-galactoside (hyperin, 11.34%), quercetin 3-O-${\alpha}$-L-arabinoside (guajavarin, 19.70%), quercetin 3-O-${\beta}$-L-rhamnoside (quercitrin, 45.33%) in the order of elution time. The inhibitory effect of Psidium guajava leaf extracts on tyrosinase were investigated to assess their whitening efficacy. Finally, their anti-elastase activities were measured to predict the anti-wrinkle efficacy in the human skin. Inhibitory effects $(IC_{50})$ on tyrosinase of some Psidium guajava leaf extracts was 50% ethanol extract $(149.67{\mu}g/mL)$ < ethylacetate fraction $(30.67{\mu}g/mL)$ < deglycosylated aglycone fraction $(17.10{\mu}g/mL)$. Inhibitory effects $(IC_{50})$ on elastase of some Psidium guajava leaf extracts was 50% ethanol extract $(6.60{\mu}g/mL)$ < deglycosylated aglycone fraction $(5.66{\mu}g/mL)$ < ethylacetate fraction $(3.44{\mu}g/mL)$. These results indicate that extract/fractions of Psidium guajava leaf can function as antioxidants in bioloigcal systems, particularly skin exposed to UV radiation by scavenging $^1O_2$ and other ROS, and protect cellular membranes against ROS. And component analysis of Psidium guajava leaf extract and inhibitory activity on elastase of the aglycone fraction could be applicable to new functional cosmetics for smoothing wrinkles.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.25-38
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• 2019

Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.88-99
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• 2009

This study was conducted to formulate management guidelines for Natural monumental old trees in Korea through survey of tree vigor and analysis of growing environments. A total of 20 old trees designated as natural monuments in Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province were surveyed. The biological characteristics were surveyed with 4 items of species, ages and height of trees. The surrounding environments were surveyed with 2 items of location types and surroundings. The root conditions were surveyed with 2 items of denudation and molding depth. The health conditions were surveyed with 5 items of withering rate, cavity size, bark breakaway rate, damages by blight and insects, and growing tips. The soil conditions were surveyed with 6 items of PH, organic contents, valid phosphoric acid, transposal cations(K, Ca) and soil compaction. On the basis of outcomes of these research items, mutual relations among locations, growings and soil conditions of old trees were analyzed by carring out cross tabulation, correlation, and simple and multiple regression. Management guidelines were presented searching the factors effecting on the health of the monumental old trees. On the biological characteristics, the old trees designated as natural monuments were Pinus bungeana(4 trees), Juniperus chinensis(3 trees), Ginkgo biloba(3 trees), Poncirus trifoliata(2 trees). Actinidia arguta, Wisteria floribunda, Thuja orientalis, Quercus mongolica, Sophora japonica, Fraxinus rhynchophylla, Zelkova serrata, and Pinus densiflora. The tree height ranged from 4.2 to 39.2m, and root collar rounds ranged from 1.01 to 15.2m. On the surrounding environments, The location types ; Gardens(4), historical sites(5), residental sections(3) open agricultural fields(3), mountain hills(3), and near ocean beaches(1) and stream site(1). The surroundings ; 75% denudation of roots, molded more than 10cm except 4 trees(25%). On the health conditions, 1)Withering rate ; Ginkgo biloba(20%) in Yongmoon temple, (5%) in Saki-ri, kanwha-gun, and others had no withering rate. 2) Cavity size ; all subject had $5{\sim}100cm^3$ of cavity. 3) Bark breakaway rate ; Pinus bungeana in Soosong-dong, in the shrine of Confucius, in Samchung-dong, especially high rate of cavity(5~50%) in Seoul area and in Saki-ri, Kangwha-gun were high 45% brakeaway rate. 4) Damages by blight and insects was slight due to managements. 5Growing tips ; In cases of Juniperus chinensis in Changdeok palace and SunnogDang, seoul, growing tips were 1/2, presumably cause by air pollution, and in cases of Fraxinus rhynchophylla in Paju city and Pinus densiflora in BacksaDorip-ri, Icheon city, growing tips were fine, presumably because there were no moldings. On the Soil conditions, Soil pH ranged from 5.2 to 8.3, organic matter contents from 12% to 56%, phosphorus contents from 104 to 618ppm, soil compaction ranged from 7 to 28mm( among them, Denudation was severe with 21~28mm soil compactions in cases of Pinus bungeana in Soosong -dong, Thuja orientalis in Samchung -dong, Ginkgo biloba in the shrine of Confucius and in Yongmoon temple.) Results of cross tabulation, correlation, and regression analysis showed that molding depth was the most serious factor to deteriorate the tree vigor and cambium conductivity. In addition, soil acidity, organic matter contents, disease and insect damages and cambial detachment were also related to the tree vigor. Additional research of these relationships will be needed to conduct more detailed studies. Based on the relationships between the tree vigor and growing environments, it is considered that old trees should be managed to give them more growing spaces and less abuses. Also, molded soils should be removed and further soil-molding around the tree collar should be prohibited. For the construction of systematic management and removal of harmful factors, appropriative management according to spices, persistent monitering of damaged cases and construction of management system through the accumulation of data on the relationships of soil conditions are required.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.251-262
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• 2019

In this study, we analyzed Korean dietary habits with food intake data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) and the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and we proposed a set of management guidelines for future Korean dietary habits. A total of 839 food items (1,419 foods) were analyzed according to the food catagories in "Food Code", which is the representative food classification system in Korea. The average total daily food intake was 1,585.77 g/day, with raw and processed foods accounting for 858.96 g/day and 726.81 g/day, respectively. Cereal grains contributed to the highest proportion of the food intake. Over 90% of subjects consumed cereal grains (99.09%) and root and tuber vegetables (95.80%) among the top 15 consumed food groups. According to the analysis by item, rice, Korean cabbage kimchi, apple, radish, egg, chili pepper, onion, wheat, soybean curds, potato, cucumber and pork were major (at least 1% of the average daily intake, 158.6 g/day) and frequently (eaten by more than 25% of subjects, 5,168 persons) consumed food items, and Korean spices were at the top of this list. In the case of kimchi, the proportion of intake of Korean cabbage kimchi (64.89 g/day) was the highest. In the case of alcoholic beverages, intake was highest by order of beer (63.53 g/day), soju (39.11 g/day) and makgeolli (19.70 g/day), and intake frequency was high in order of soju (11.3%), beer (7.2%), and sake (6.6%). Analysis results by seasonal intake trends showed that cereal grains have steadily decreased and beverages have slightly risen. In the case of alcoholic beverage consumption frequency, some kinds of makgeolli, wine, sake, and black raspberry wine have decreased gradually year by year. The consumption trend for kimchi has been gradually decreasing as well.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.5-19
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• 2019

Considering the natural phenomenon in which steep slopes ($65^{\circ}{\sim}85^{\circ}$) consisting of rock mass remain stable for decades, slopes steeper than 1:0.5 (the standard of slope angle for blast rock) may be applied in geotechnical conditions which are similar to those above at the design and initial construction stages. In the process of analysing the stability of a good to fair continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope, a general method of estimating rock mass strength properties from design practice perspective was required. Practical and genealized engineering methods of determining the properties of a rock mass are important for a good continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope. The Genealized Hoek-Brown (H-B) failure criterion and GSI (Geological Strength Index), which were revised and supplemented by Hoek et al. (2002), were assessed as rock mass characterization systems fully taking into account the effects of discontinuities, and were widely utilized as a method for calculating equivalent Mohr-Coulomb shear strength (balancing the areas) according to stress changes. The concept of calculating equivalent M-C shear strength according to the change of confining stress range was proposed, and on a slope, the equivalent shear strength changes sensitively with changes in the maximum confining stress (${{\sigma}^{\prime}}_{3max}$ or normal stress), making it difficult to use it in practical design. In this study, the method of estimating the strength properties (an iso-angle division method) that can be applied universally within the maximum confining stress range for a good to fair continuum rock mass slope is proposed by applying the H-B failure criterion. In order to assess the validity and applicability of the proposed method of estimating the shear strength (A), the rock slope, which is a study object, was selected as the type of rock (igneous, metamorphic, sedimentary) on the steep slope near the existing working design site. It is compared and analyzed with the equivalent M-C shear strength (balancing the areas) proposed by Hoek. The equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method and iso-angle division method was estimated using the RocLab program (geotechnical properties calculation software based on the H-B failure criterion (2002)) by using the basic data of the laboratory rock triaxial compression test at the existing working design site and the face mapping of discontinuities on the rock slope of study area. The calculated equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method was interlinked to show very large or small cohesion and internal friction angles (generally, greater than $45^{\circ}$). The equivalent M-C shear strength of the iso-angle division is in-between the equivalent M-C shear properties of the balancing the areas, and the internal friction angles show a range of $30^{\circ}$ to $42^{\circ}$. We compared and analyzed the shear strength (A) of the iso-angle division method at the study area with the shear strength (B) of the existing working design site with similar or the same grade RMR each other. The application of the proposed iso-angle division method was indirectly evaluated through the results of the stability analysis (limit equilibrium analysis and finite element analysis) applied with these the strength properties. The difference between A and B of the shear strength is about 10%. LEM results (in wet condition) showed that Fs (A) = 14.08~58.22 (average 32.9) and Fs (B) = 18.39~60.04 (average 32.2), which were similar in accordance with the same rock types. As a result of FEM, displacement (A) = 0.13~0.65 mm (average 0.27 mm) and displacement (B) = 0.14~1.07 mm (average 0.37 mm). Using the GSI and Hoek-Brown failure criterion, the significant result could be identified in the application evaluation. Therefore, the strength properties of rock mass estimated by the iso-angle division method could be applied with practical shear strength.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.45-68
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• 2022

The central and local governments of the Republic of Korea provided information necessary for disaster response through wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) in order to overcome the pandemic situation in which COVID-19 rapidly spreads. Among all channels for delivering disaster information, wireless emergency alert is the most efficient, and since it adopts the CBS(Cell Broadcast Service) method that broadcasts directly to the mobile phone, it has the advantage of being able to easily access disaster information through the mobile phone without the effort of searching. In this study, the characteristics of wireless emergency alerts sent to Seoul during the past year and one month (January 2020 to January 2021) were derived through various text mining methodologies, and various types of information contained in wireless emergency alerts were analyzed. In addition, it was confirmed through the population mobility by age in the districts of Seoul that what kind of influence it had on the movement behavior of people. After going through the process of classifying key words and information included in each character, text analysis was performed so that individual sent characters can be used as an analysis unit by applying a document cluster analysis technique based on the included words. The number of WEAs sent to the Seoul has grown dramatically since the spread of Covid-19. In January 2020, only 10 WEAs were sent to the Seoul, but the number of the WEAs increased 5 times in March, and 7.7 times over the previous months. Since the basic, regional local government were authorized to send wireless emergency alerts independently, the sending behavior of related to wireless emergency alerts are different for each local government. Although most of the basic local governments increased the transmission of WEAs as the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 increases, the trend of the increase in WEAs according to the increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 was different by region. By using structured econometric model, the effect of disaster information included in wireless emergency alerts on population mobility was measured by dividing it into baseline effect and accumulating effect. Six types of disaster information, including date, order, online URL, symptom, location, normative guidance, were identified in WEAs and analyzed through econometric modelling. It was confirmed that the types of information that significantly change population mobility by age are different. Population mobility of people in their 60s and 70s decreased when wireless emergency alerts included information related to date and order. As date and order information is appeared in WEAs when they intend to give information about Covid-19 confirmed cases, these results show that the population mobility of higher ages decreased as they reacted to the messages reporting of confirmed cases of Covid-19. Online information (URL) decreased the population mobility of in their 20s, and information related to symptoms reduced the population mobility of people in their 30s. On the other hand, it was confirmed that normative words that including the meaning of encouraging compliance with quarantine policies did not cause significant changes in the population mobility of all ages. This means that only meaningful information which is useful for disaster response should be included in the wireless emergency alerts. Repeated sending of wireless emergency alerts reduces the magnitude of the impact of disaster information on population mobility. It proves indirectly that under the prolonged pandemic, people started to feel tired of getting repetitive WEAs with similar content and started to react less. In order to effectively use WEAs for quarantine and overcoming disaster situations, it is necessary to reduce the fatigue of the people who receive WEA by sending them only in necessary situations, and to raise awareness of WEAs.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.59-66
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• 2023

This study attempts to examine the process of establishing a Japanese-style garden in the modern period through the perspectives of garden designers, spatial composition, spatial components, and materials used in their works, and to use it as data for embodying the identity of Korean garden. The results are as follows: First, by incorporating elements associated with Koreanness into the modern garden culture, there are differences in location, presence, and subjectivity when compared to Japan. This reflects Japan's relatively seamless cultural continuity compared to Korea's cultural disconnection during the modern period. Second, prior to the modern period, Japan's garden culture spread and continued to develop throughout the country without significant interruptions. However, during the modern period, the Meiji government promoted the policy of 'civilization and enlightenment (Bunmei-kaika, 文明開化)' and introduced advanced European and American civilizations, leading to the popularity of Western-style architectural techniques. Unfortunately, the rapid introduction of Western culture caused the traditional Japanese culture to be overshadowed. In 1879, British architect Josiah Condor guided Japanese architects and introduced atelier and traditional designs of Japanese gardens into the design. The garden style of Ogawa Jihei VII, a garden designer in Kyoto during the Meiji and Taisho periods, was accepted by influential political and business leaders who sought to preserve Japan's traditional culture. And a protection system of garden was established through the preparation of various laws and regulations. Third, as a comprehensive analysis of Japanese modern gardens, the examination of garden designers, Japanese components, materials, elements, and the Japanese-style showed that Yamagata Aritomo, Ogawa Jihei VII, and Mirei Shigemori were representative garden designers who preserved the Japanese-style in their gardens. They introduced features such as the creation of a Daejicheon(大池泉) garden, which involves a large pond on a spacious land, as well as the naturalistic borrowed scenery method and water flow. Key components of Japanese-style gardens include the use of turf, winding garden paths, and the variation of plant species. Fourth, an analysis of the Japanese-style elements in the target sites revealed that the use of flowing water had the highest occurrence at 47.06% among the individual elements of spatial composition. Daejicheon and naturalistic borrowed scenery were also shown. The use of turf and winding paths were at 65.88% and 78.82%, respectively. The alteration of tree species was relatively less common at 28.24% compared to the application of turf or winding paths. Fifth, it is essential to discover more gardens from the modern period and meticulously document the creators or owners of the gardens, the spatial composition, spatial components, and materials used. This information will be invaluable in uncovering the identity of our own gardens. This study was conducted based on the analysis of the process of establishing the Japanese-style during Japan's modern period, utilizing examples of garden designers and gardens. While this study has limitations, such as the absence of in-depth research and more case studies or specific techniques, it sets the stage for future exploration.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.5-15
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• 2010

This study investigated research trends of JDS that KODISA published and gave implications to elevate quality of scholarly journals. In other words, the study classified scientific system of distribution area to investigate research trends and to compare it with other scholarly journals of distribution and to give implications for higher level of JDS. KODISA published JDS Vol.1 No.1 for the first time in 1999 followed by Vol.8 No.3 in September 2010 to show 109 theses in total. KODISA investigated subjects, research institutions, number of participants, methodology, frequency of theses in both the Korean language and English, frequency of participation of not only the Koreans but also foreigners and use of references, etc. And, the study investigated JDR of KODIA, JKDM(The Journal of Korean Distribution & Management) and JDA that researched distribution, so that it found out development ways. To investigate research trends of JDS that KODISA publishes, main category was made based on the national science and technology standard classification system of MEST (Ministry Of Education, Science And Technology), table of classification of research areas of NRF(National Research Foundation of Korea), research classification system of both KOREADIMA and KLRA(Korea Logistics Research Association) and distribution science and others that KODISA is looking for, and distribution economy area was divided into general distribution, distribution economy, distribution, distribution information and others, and distribution management was divided into distribution management, marketing, MD and purchasing, consumer behavior and others. The findings were as follow: Firstly, main category occupied 47 theses (43.1%) of distribution economy and 62 theses (56.9%) of distribution management among 109 theses in total. Active research area of distribution economy consisted of 14 theses (12.8%) of distribution information and 9 theses (8.3%) of distribution economy to research distribution as well as distribution information positively every year. The distribution management consisted of 25 theses (22.9%) of distribution management and 20 theses (18.3%) of marketing, These days, research on distribution management, marketing, distribution, distribution information and others is increasing. Secondly, researchers published theses as follow: 55 theses (50.5%) by professor by himself or herself, 12 theses (11.0%) of joint research by professors and businesses, Professors/students published 9 theses (8.3%) followed by 5 theses (4.6%) of researchers, 5 theses (4.6%) of businesses, 4 theses (3.7%) of professors, researchers and businesses and 2 theses (1.8%) of students. Professors published theses less, while businesses, research institutions and graduate school students did more continuously. The number of researchers occupied single researcher (43 theses, 39.5%), two researchers (42 theses, 38.5%) and three researchers or more (24 theses, 22.0%). Thirdly, professors published theses the most at most of areas. Researchers of main category of distribution economy consisted of professors (25 theses, 53.2%), professors and businesses (7 theses, 14.9%), professors and businesses (7 theses, 14.9%), professors and researchers (6 theses, 12.8%) and professors and students (3 theses, 6.3%). And, researchers of main category of distribution management consisted of professors (30 theses, 48.4%), professors and businesses (10 theses, 16.1%), and professors and researchers as well as professors and students (6 theses, 9.7%). Researchers of distribution management consisted of professors, professors and businesses, professors and researchers, researchers and businesses, etc to have various types. Professors mainly researched marketing, MD and purchasing, and consumer behavior, etc to demand active participation of businesses and researchers. Fourthly, research methodology was: Literature research occupied 45 theses (41.3%) the most followed by empirical research based on questionnaire survey (44 theses, 40.4%). General distribution, distribution economy, distribution and distribution management, etc mostly adopted literature research, while marketing did empirical research based on questionnaire survey the most. Fifthly, theses in the Korean language occupied 92.7% (101 theses), while those in English did 7.3% (8 theses). No more than one thesis in English was published until 2006, and 7 theses (11.9%) were published after 2007 to increase. The theses in English were published more to be affirmative. Foreigner researcher published one thesis (0.9%) and both Korean researchers and foreigner researchers jointly published two theses (1.8%) to have very much low participation of foreigner researchers. Sixthly, one thesis of JDS had 27.5 references in average that consisted of 11.1 local references and 16.4 foreign references. And, cited times was 0.4 thesis in average to be low. The distribution economy cited 24.2 references in average (9.4 local references and 14.8 foreign references and JDS had 0.6 cited reference. The distribution management had 30.0 references in average (12.1 local references and 17.9 foreign references) and had 0.3 reference of JDS itself. Seventhly, similar type of scholarly journal had theses in the Korean language and English: JDR( Journal of Distribution Research) of KODIA(Korea Distribution Association) published 92 theses in the Korean language (96.8%) and 3 theses in English (3.2%), that is to say, 95 theses in total. JKDM of KOREADIMA published 132 theses in total that consisted of 93 theses in the Korean language (70.5%) and 39 theses in English (29.5%). Since 2008, JKDM has published scholarly journal in English one time every year. JDS published 52 theses in the Korean language (88.1%) and 7 theses in English (11.9%), that is to say, 59 theses in total. Sixthly, similar type of scholarly journals and research methodology were: JDR's research methodology had 65 empirical researches based on questionnaire survey (68.4%), followed by 17 literature researches (17.9%) and 11 quantitative analyses (11.6%). JKDM made use of various kinds of research methodologies to have 60 questionnaire surveys (45.5%), followed by 40 literature researches (30.3%), 21 quantitative analyses (15.9%), 6 system analyses (4.5%) and 5 case studies (3.8%). And, JDS made use of 30 questionnaire surveys (50.8%), followed by 15 literature researches (25.4%), 7 case studies (11.9%) and 6 quantitative analyses (10.2%). Ninthly, similar types of scholarly journals and Korean researchers and foreigner researchers were: JDR published 93 theses (97.8%) by Korean researchers except for 1 thesis by foreigner researcher and 1 thesis by joint research of the Korean researchers and foreigner researchers. And, JKDM had no foreigner research and 13 theses (9.8%) by joint research of the Korean researchers and foreigner researchers to have more foreigner researchers as well as researchers in foreign countries than similar types of scholarly journals had. And, JDS published 56 theses (94.9%) of the Korean researchers, one thesis (1.7%) of foreigner researcher only, and 2 theses (3.4%) of joint research of both the Koreans and foreigners. Tenthly, similar type of scholarly journals and reference had citation: JDR had 42.5 literatures in average that consisted of 10.9 local literatures (25.7%) and 31.6 foreign literatures (74.3%), and cited times accounted for 1.1 thesis to decrease. JKDM cited 10.5 Korean literatures (36.3%) and 18.4 foreign literatures (63.7%), and number of self-cited literature was no more than 1.1. Number of cited times accounted for 2.9 literatures in 2008 and then decreased continuously since then. JDS cited 26,8 references in average that consisted of 10.9 local references (40.7%) and 15.9 foreign references (59.3%), and number of self-cited accounted for 0.2 reference until 2009, and it increased to be 2.1 references in 2010. The author gives implications based on JDS research trends and investigation on similar type of scholarly journals as follow: Firstly, JDS shall actively invite foreign contributors to prepare for SSCI. Secondly, ratio of theses in English shall increase greatly. Thirdly, various kinds of research methodology shall be accepted to elevate quality of scholarly journals. Fourthly, to increase cited times, Google and other web retrievals shall be reinforced to supply scholarly journals to foreign countries more. Local scholarly journals can be worldwide scholarly journal enough to be acknowledged even in foreign countries by improving the implications above.