• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.7-14
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• 2012

To analyze any given situation, it is necessary to have information on elements which affect the situation. Particularly, there is greater variability in both frequency and magnitude of agricultural product prices as they are affected by various unpredictable factors such as weather conditions etc. This is the reason why it is difficult for the farmers to maintain their stable income through agricultural production and marketing. In this research, attempts are made to quantify the entropy of various situations inherent in the price changes so that the stability of farmers' income can be increased. Through this research, we developed an entropy model which can quantify the uncertainties of price changes using the probability distribution of price changes. The model was tested for its significance by comparing its simulation outcomes with actual ranges and standard deviations of price variations of the past using monthly agricultural product prices data. We confirmed that the simulation results reflected the features of the ranges and standard deviations of actual price variations. Also, it is possible for us to predict standard deviations for changed prices which will occur after a certain time using the information entropy obtained from relevant agricultural product price data before the time.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.135-163
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• 2013

This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the 'Cycle of Beef' since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.63-75
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• 2013

The purpose of the study is investigating the price fluctuation of landscaping plants in the Information on Commodity Prices(ICP) and the posted price fluctuation of landscaping plants of Public Procurement Service(PPS) recent 10 years. It also provides the basic information which can be applied to production and sales of landscaping plants, comparing with general price index. The major findings of the study are as follows. First, The price of investigated plants of PPS has increased about 4.56% in average recent 10 years. Among this increase, of evergreen tree was predominant. On the other hand, landscaping trees price of ICP has increased about only 2.34% in average. Secondly, The result shows that average price of investigated plants of PPS is positively related with the price of ICP. For this reason, we found that prices of ICP and of PPS move together in most case. However, we found that there are no relation between Consumer Price Index(CPI), Producer Price Index(PPI) and Agricultural Price Index(API). Therefore, price fluctuation of landscaping trees moves regardless of normal price fluctuation in general. Third, even though result shows that price index of evergreen trees, deciduous trees and shrubs are weakly related with normal price index partly, it was not high enough to be significant. According to the result, we found that price of landscaping plants is not related with market situation. For this reason, we thought that there are some difficulties for the reasonable production and sales of landscaping plants because the price is somewhat decided by rule of thumb. Therefore, understanding the composition of cost and making prediction by price fluctuation available are needed so that it can be practically conducive to reasonable production and sales.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.263-271
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• 1987

The cyclical trend and seasonal variations of chestnut prices have been analyzed to find out the chestnut price fluctuation in Korea during 1966-1985. The optimum prices, production, and plantation area for the next twenty five years (1986-2010) have been forcasted by the derived equation models. The results of study can be summarized as follows: 1. The chestnut prices were increased by 14.67 percent per annum during 1966-1972, an d decreased by 9.24 percent during 1973-1985, due to the excessive production of chestnut. 2. The chestnut prices showed the lowest price during the harvesting season, especially in October (89.1), and highest in July (109.1). Seasonal fluctuation of chestnut prices were 0.0837 (C.V value) during 1966-1975, and 0.0706 during 1976-1985. Such a seasonal fluctuation of chestnut prices tends to be even with the passage of time. 3. The equation model of predicted chestnut prices was derived as follows : PR=117788.088 - 7.60 TC/Pop + 6.585 GNP/Pop The chestnut prices will be the lowest in 1988, but increased rapidly thereafter. 4. The equation model of optimum chestnut production was derived as follows : $${\ell}n\;PD/Pop=-8.5147-0.8267{\ell}n\;PR+3.3063{\ell}n\;GNP/Pop$$ To maintain optimum chestnut prices according to this model, chestnut production should be 133,000 ton for 1988, and 1,899,000 ton for 2010. 5. Optimum chestnut plantation area will be 4,000 ha in 1988, and thereafter total plantation area will be up to 57,400 ha in 2010.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.39-50
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• 2020

Purpose: Agriculture, which is heavily influenced by climate conditions, is one of the industries most affected by climate change. In this respect, various studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural market have been conducted. Since climate change is a long-term phenomenon for more than a decade, long-term projections of agricultural prices as well as climate variables are needed to properly analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural market. However, these long-term price projections are often major constraints on studies of climate changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of climate changes on the Korean onion market using ex-post analysis approach in order to avoid the difficulties of long-term price projections. Research design, data and methodology: This study develops an annual dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean onion market. The behavioral equations of the model were estimated by OLS based on the annual data from 1988 to 2018. The modelling system is first simulated to have actual onion market conditions from 2014 to 2018 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming the climatic conditions under RCP8.5 over the same period. Scenario analyses were simulated by both comparative static and dynamic approach to evaluate the differences between the two approaches. Results: According to the empirical results, if the climate conditions under RCP8.5 were applied from 2014 to 2018, the yield of onion would increase by about 4%, and the price of onion would decrease from 3.7% to 17.4%. In addition, the average price fluctuation rate over the five years under RCP8.5 climate conditions is 56%, which is more volatile than 46% under actual climate conditions. Empirical results also show that the price decreases have been alleviated in dynamic model compared with comparative static model. Conclusions: Empirical results show that climate change is expected to increase onion yields and reduce onion prices. Therefore, the appropriate countermeasures against climate change in Korean onion market should be found in the stabilization of supply and demand for price stabilization rather than technical aspects such as the development of new varieties to increase productivity.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.617-624
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• 2017

The production of cabbage, which is mainly cultivated in open field, varies greatly depending on weather conditions, and the price fluctuation is largely due to the presence of a substitute crop. Previous studies predicted the production of cabbage using actual weather data, but in this study, we predicted the wholesale price using unstructured agricultural meteorological data on the web. From January 2009 to October 2016, we collected documents including the cabbage on the portal site, and extracted keywords related to weather in the collected documents. We compared the forecast wholesale prices of simple models and unstructured agricultural weather models at the time of shipment. The simple model is AR model using only wholesale price, and the unstructured agricultural weather model is AR model using unstructured agricultural weather data additionally. As a result, the performance of unstructured agricultural weather model was has been found to be more accurate prediction ability.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.273-285
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• 2010

This paper analyzes retailers' purchasing patterns of fruits and vegetables and the problems with purchasing from agricultural product wholesale markets. While large-scale retailers purchase fruits and vegetables from various sources, medium and small-scale retailers and food service companies buy them mostly from agricultural product wholesale markets. The retailers point out the problems with purchasing from agricultural product wholesale markets as a lack of quality uniformity, not sufficient cooling storage facilities, not sufficient space for shipping area, high distribution cost, unnecessary price fluctuation, and etc. In order to enhance the linkage with retailers, agricultural product wholesale markets, first of all, have to adopt more flexible trading methods such as private treaty besides auctions which are exclusively legitimate trading methods in the market. Necessary are enlargement of jobbers' operating scale, securing shipping space for retailers, adoption of inspection service, introduction of methods to stabilize auction prices, saving of loading and unloading costs, implementation of marketing strategies.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.24-31
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• 2012

This case study investigates the KIKO currency option that has been a social issue in recent years among developing countries, especially Korea, where the financial derivatives market is in a state of rapid growth. The forward transaction which becomes a basis of derivatives is intended to hedge risks that may be caused by a future change in asset prices. Although it originates from a simple form of agricultural transactions, there currently exists a variety of derivatives in more sophisticated forms. In the Korean agricultural industry, the need to use such derivatives is great, as there is a huge risk of price fluctuation in agricultural products due to frequent adverse weather. In addition, many developing countries with export-led industrial structures similar to Korea's, of necessity must resort to currency hedging as a method of reducing relevant risk. However, in most cases, the lack of understanding about financial derivatives results in an inappropriate application of these derivatives. The KIKO in this study represents such cases. Since 2007, KIKO has been sold in Korea to many small- and medium-sized export companies for the purpose of currency hedging when the exchange rate between the Korean won and the U.S. dollar was in a downward spiral. The main focus of this study is a case which is most representative of KIKO. As inflation rapidly increased during the financial crisis in the U.S. at the end of 2007, derivatives became a hot issue in the courts rather than in the financial markets. This case study investigates what KIKO and the fierce legal debates over it imply, from the perspective of the option of value evaluation in order to suggest not only a direction in which companies can utilize financial derivatives, but also a roadmap for the future derivatives market.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.137-153
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• 2016

The price of agricultural products has changed from year to year, the m ajor c ause o f price fluctuation is the imbalance of supply and demand. Materials which are mainly used in korean cabbage production volume is the forecast model, using the cadastral result, slope calculation is impossible to achieved. For this reason, this implies the drastic decrease of prices and the prediction of supply and demand of field crops that is cultivated in a highland slope area, this situation is being repeated. Therefore, the target area of this research is the slopes of high land, by using 2D and 3D Lidar data for the analysis of the cultivated area. Experiment was carried out in the same area to compare the data differences. The rate of change in the area of slope is quantitatively increasing presented by the regression model. An alternative methodology that can improve the reliability of the calculated slope area using 2D is through cadastral map.

• Journal of the Korean Society of International Agriculture
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.513-519
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• 2011

In recent, the cultivation of maize in the world is being increased as a feed for the animal due to the increase of the large amount of meat consumption. However, reduction of supply for the feeding maize by the natural disaster such as drought, flooding, and demanding materials for bioenergy are attributed to increase the cereal price of the world that caused for the fluctuation of prices. The research has been done to provide useful information to the Korean agricultural investor regarding the current status of maize production and distribution in Cambodia. The maize cultivation of Cambodia in 2009 presented as a second major crop at the area of 6.8% in the total crop production area, and it continuously increased maize production yearly basis for the internal uses as well as for the exportation. The total amount of production showed by amount of 0.92 million tons due to the increased production of unit area. The yield production of unit area in current shows about 4 tones per hectare. About 90% of total production produced during August to September at wet season, and area of Batambang province produced about 70% of the total production. The production of feeding maize cultivated about 70% of the total cultivation area, and the exportation have done around 60% and remains were consumed as a domestic uses. The prospects of maize production in Cambodia will be increased due to the acceleration of livestock industry as 8.7% of annual growth rate.