Causal Loop Analysis and Policy Simulation on the fluctuation of Korean Cattle Price

한우 가격 파동의 인과순환적 구조분석과 정책 시뮬레이션

This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the 'Cycle of Beef' since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.