• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.833-843
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• 2022

Since the supply and demand of agricultural products are unstable, which causes instability in farm income and consumer prices, the government has sought to mitigate the problems caused by unstable supply and demand by generating and providing agricultural outlook information. However, research should be carried out to increase the quality and utilization of agricultural observation information, because the value of agricultural observation information increases only when more users use this information and apply it to their decisions. In this study, a survey was conducted targeting producers and experts who are users or potential users of agricultural outlook information, and the results were analyzed through quantitative model, specifically importance-performance analysis (IPA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results show that improvement of promptness was required among the seven items evaluated with regard to agricultural outlook. Also, measures for dissemination of agricultural outlook information and the contents of outlook information should be improved to increase its use. If the quality level and use of agricultural observation information are increased by reflecting the results of the above analysis, decision-making on the supply and demand of agricultural products in Korea will be improved, and it is thought that it will be possible to increase farm household income and stabilize consumer prices through stabilization of supply and demand of agricultural products.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.3753-3759
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to analyze the outcomes of experts' survey for the agricultural outlook program, and finally suggests the direction and long-term plan for the improvement of this program. Agents and consultants in the agricultural outlook center were surveyed in order to develop a long-term plan and improvement direction for this agricultural outlook program, and the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) was used for analysis. The survey was carried out on 70 experts in Agricultural Outlook Center and finally, the statistical effective 24 questionnaires were used to analyze. The analysis showed that the most important factor for its long-term improvement plan was the enhancement of timeliness in overall. Particularly, outlook agents weighted more on timeliness for long-term planning, but consultants on accuracy.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.679-690
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• 2022

As the supply and demand of pork has become a significant concern in Korea, controlling it has become a critical challenge for the industry. However, compared to the demand for pork, which has relatively stable consumption, it is not easy to maintain a stable supply. As the preparation of measures for a supply-demand crisis response and supply control in the pig industry has emerged as an important task, it has become necessary to establish a stable supply model and create an appropriate manual. In this study, a pork supply prediction model is constructed using reported data from the pig traceability system. Based on the derived results, a method for determining the supply-demand crisis stage using a statistical approach was proposed. From the results of the analysis, working days, African swine fever, heat wave, and Covid-19 were shown to affect the number of pigs graded in the market. A test of the performance of the model showed that both in-sample error rate and out-sample error rate were between 0.3 - 7.6%, indicating a high level of predictive power. Applying the forecast, the distribution of the confidence interval of the predicted value was established, and the supply crisis stage was identified, evaluating supply-demand conditions.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.797-806
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• 2021

As the number of scaled-up ranches increased and agile responses to market changes became possible, decision-making by Hanwoo cattle farms also began to affect short-term shipments. Considering the changing environment of the Hanwoo supply market and the response speed of producers, it is necessary quickly to grasp the forecast ahead of time and to respond accordingly in an effort to stabilize supply and demand in the Hanwoo market. In this study, short-term forecasting model centered on the supply of Hanwoo was established. The analysis conducted here indicates that the slaughter of Hanwoo males increases by 0.248 as the number of beef cattle raised over 29 months of age in the previous month increases by one, and 0.764 Hanwoo females were slaughtered under average conditions for every Hanwoo male slaughtered. With regard to time, the slaughtering of Hanwoo was higher in January and August, which are months known for holiday food preparation activities for the New Year and Chuseok in Korea, respectively. Simulations indicated that errors were within 10% in all simulations performed through the Hanwoo supply model. Accordingly, it is considered that the estimation results from the supply model devised in this study are reliable and that the model has good structural stability.

• Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.233-239
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• 2012

Public forecasts for broiler's prices such as Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) outlook information are important for producers and agribusiness decision makers in enhancing economic decision making. However, the KREI forecasts have not been fully evaluated so far. In this study agricultural outlook price forecasts for broiler are evaluated under accuracy-based measures and classification-based measures which test the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Agricultural outlook price forecasts for broiler are efficient but biased. In the aspect of the monthly direction of price change 59% of its forecasts over the sample period are correct, and actual prices fall within the forecasted range 32% of the time. Results suggest that it is necessary and meaningful for the agricultural outlook center to evaluate the current forecasting method and try to find an alternative method for improving the forecasting technique.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.815-829
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to construct a flatfish outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries outlook" monthly publication of the fisheries outlook center of the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to flatfish items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model (DEEM) system, considering biological breeding and shipping times. Due to limited amounts of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated using a recursive model method as the inverse demand. The main research results and implications are as follows. As a result of estimating young fish inventory levels, the coefficient of the young fish inventory in the previous period was estimated to be 0.03, which was not statistically significant. Because there is distinct seasonality, when estimating the breeding outcomes, the elasticity of breeding in the previous period was found to exceed 0.7, and it increased more as the weight of the fish increased, in addition, the shipment coefficient gradually increased as the weight increased, which means that as the fish weight increased, the shipment compared to the breeding volume increased. When estimating shipments, the elasticity of breeding in previous period was estimated to respond elastically as the weight increases. The price flexibility coefficient of the total supply was inelastically estimated to be -0.19. Finally, according to a model predictive power test, the Theil U1 was estimated to be very low for all of the predictors, indicating excellent predictive power.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.17-32
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• 2011

Peru is South America's third largest country and enjoys an enormous amount of natural resources. However, However, very few business studies on Peruvian agriculture have been presented. The objectives of this study are to introduce the general status of Peruvian agriculture to Korean business circles and to promote agricultural business opportunities in Korea and Peru. Secondary data related to Peruvian agriculture are collected and analyzed to understand the current situation of Peruvian agriculture and to suggest an outlook for business opportunities. Findings show that Peru will be a lucrative market for Korean agri-business to target in the near future and it is time for a proactive advance in agriculture by Korean business.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.71-76
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• 2000

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2017.06a
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• pp.307-307
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• 2017

There is a growing need to understand how local, farm household, and elementary units are responding to changes in agricultural conditions due to increased internal and external agrarian conditions and increased uncertainty in agricultural management due to increasing FTA and climate change. Therefore, we analyze dynamics of changes through more detailed and precise gathering of information related to agricultural products and DB, and by analyzing the satisfaction level of the first year panel survey by constructing a producer panel for utilization in agricultural research and policy. A total of 500 farmers in the producer panel who mainly grow rice, garlic, onion, strawberry, apple were collected through questionnaires. The actual analysis used data from a total of 393 farm households, including 82 farms of rice, 51 farms of apple, 100 farms of garlic, 88 farms of onion and 72 farmhouses of strawberry. The distribution by age was similar to the distribution of rural ages in Korea, with 2.8% under 30s, 17.6% in 40s, 32.4% in 50s, 37.5% in 60s and 9.7% in 70s. Panel happiness and rural life satisfaction were examined using the 7 - point Likert scale and the analysis method was one - way ANOVA. The results showed that the happiness of garlic and strawberry cultivator was significantly higher than that of rice and onion cultivator. However, the satisfaction of rural life did not show any difference among the cultivars. As a result of difference verification about Agricultural Outlook and Crop-specific Outlook after 5 years, there was no difference between the crops in terms of prospects for Korean agriculture after five years, but a survey of industrial prospects for crops after five years showed that the rice growers have a significantly negative outlook compared to garlic, onion and strawberry growers, and garlic and onion growers have a more positive outlook than rice and apple growers As a result of verifying whether there is a difference in ages between the agricultural prospects and the industrial prospects by crops after 5 years, there was no difference between the ages of prospects for Korean agriculture after 5 years, However, in the survey on industrial prospects by crops after 5 years, 40s were more positive than 60s.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.299-306
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• 2012

This study conducted an internet survey to explore consumers' behaviors for reducing food wastes and to examine factors affecting their actions. Consumer survey demonstrates that food preparers at home purchase foods two or three times a week on average and most of food wastes are generated in the process of cooking preparation. Results show that consumers who purchase foods at supermarket reduce food wastes by frequently buying a small amount of foods and checking the expiration date. Consumers with higher income diminish food wastes by purchasing appropriate amount of foods. Interestingly, if husband and wife work together for a living, they are more active for decreasing food wastes compared to a single worker.