Korean Journal of Agricultural Science (농업과학연구)

Institute of Agricultural Science, CNU (충남대학교 농업과학연구소)
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Monthly Hanwoo supply and forecasting models

  • Hyungwoo, Lee (Livestock Outlook Team, Center for Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Seonu, Ji (Livestock Outlook Team, Center for Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Tongjoo, Suh (Modeling Research Team, Center for Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • Received : 2021.09.01
  • Accepted : 2021.10.14
  • Published : 2021.12.01
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Abstract

As the number of scaled-up ranches increased and agile responses to market changes became possible, decision-making by Hanwoo cattle farms also began to affect short-term shipments. Considering the changing environment of the Hanwoo supply market and the response speed of producers, it is necessary quickly to grasp the forecast ahead of time and to respond accordingly in an effort to stabilize supply and demand in the Hanwoo market. In this study, short-term forecasting model centered on the supply of Hanwoo was established. The analysis conducted here indicates that the slaughter of Hanwoo males increases by 0.248 as the number of beef cattle raised over 29 months of age in the previous month increases by one, and 0.764 Hanwoo females were slaughtered under average conditions for every Hanwoo male slaughtered. With regard to time, the slaughtering of Hanwoo was higher in January and August, which are months known for holiday food preparation activities for the New Year and Chuseok in Korea, respectively. Simulations indicated that errors were within 10% in all simulations performed through the Hanwoo supply model. Accordingly, it is considered that the estimation results from the supply model devised in this study are reliable and that the model has good structural stability.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. We would like to acknowledge the Livestock Management Division and Livestock Policy Division, and thank for their cooperation and advice.

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