• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.119-125
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• 2009

We predict the earthquake rate in Korea following Bayesian approach. We make a model that can utilize the data to predict other levels of earthquake. An event tree model which is a frequently used graphical tool in describing accident initiation and escalation to more severe accident is transformed into an influence diagram model. Prior distributions for earthquake occurrence rate and probabilities to escalating to more severe earthquakes are assumed and likelihood of number of earthquake in a given period of time is assessed. And then posterior distributions are obtained based on observed data. We find that the minor level of earthquake is increasing while major level of earthquake is less likely.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.39-56
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 서울시 자치구(행정구역) 중심의 거시적 사고예측모형을 개발하였다. 사고예측모형 개발과정에서 서울시 전체를 하나의 모형식으로 개발하지 않고 지역 토지이용(개발밀도)과 교통사고빈도와의 관계를 분석하여 토지이용 유형에 따른 사고예측모형을 개발하였다. 토지이용과 교통사고빈도와의 관계에서 개발밀도(연상면적)가 높을수록 교통사고빈도가 높게 나타나는 상관성을 파악하였으며 주거연상면적, 상업연상면적, 업무연상면적 모두 교통사고와 반응하는 특징이 다름을 확인할 수 있었다. 총 4개의 유형구분이 가능하였으며 각 유형에 대한 지역특성과 사고특성을 살펴보았다. 4개 유형의 모형에 반영된 설명변수는 공통변수와 각 유형별로 상이한 특성변수가 도출되어 지역적 특성이 모형에 반영된 것으로 판단할 수 있다. 사회 경제적 변수로는 통행을 유발 유입시키는 교통활동을 대변할 수 있는 변수가 채택되었으며 교통여건 변수로는 교통시설 및 안전과 관련된 변수가 채택되었다.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.19-29
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• 2023

우리나라 도로 사고원단위는 도로 종류와 차로 수에 따라 단순 구분하고 있으나, 국외는 사고에 영향을 미치는 다양한 요소를 적용하고 있다. 본 논문은 TAAS(Traffic Accident Analysis System)의 사고 자료를 이용하여 일반국도 사고원단위를 도시부, 지방부, Older, 및 Modern 도로로 세분하였으며, 사고절감비용 산정 모형을 제시하였다. 국도 1,416.2km의 표본을 토대로 분석된 사망원단위(인/억대·km)는 도시부-Older 4.21, 도시부-Modern 1.37, 지방부-Older 2.18 및 지방부-Modern 0.99로 Older가 Modern 도로보다 높고, 도시부가 지방부보다 높게 분석되었다. 부상원단위(인/억대·km)는 도시부-Older 182.63, 도시부-Modern 103.42, 지방부-Older 67.44 및 지방부-Modern 42.96으로 사망원단위와 유사한 패턴으로 분석되었다. Modern 도로의 경우 KDI 지침의 사고원단위보다 매우 낮은 수준이다. 본 연구의 사고원단위를 적용하여 편익을 산정한 결과 사고비용절감편익 비율이 0.6%에서 14.1%로 증가하였으며, B/C는 0.626에서 0.724로 개선되었다.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.143-151
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• 2022

Background: After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, biological alterations in the natural biota, including morphological changes of fir trees in forests surrounding the power plant, have been reported. Focusing on the terminal buds involved in the morphological formation of fir trees, this study developed a method for estimating the absorbed radiation dose rate using radionuclide distribution measurements from tree organs. Materials and Methods: A phantom composed of three-dimensional (3D) tree organs was constructed for the three upper whorls of the fir tree. A terminal bud was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations for the absorbed dose rate of radionuclides in the tree organs of the whorls. Evaluation of the absorbed dose targeted ¹³¹I, ¹³⁴Cs, and ¹³⁷Cs, the main radionuclides subsequent to the FDNPP accident. The dose contribution from each tree organ was calculated separately using dose coefficients (DC), which express the ratio between the average activity concentration of a radionuclide in each tree organ and the dose rate at the terminal bud. Results and Discussion: The dose estimation indicated that the radionuclides in the terminal bud and bud scale contributed to the absorbed dose rate mainly by beta rays, whereas those in 1-year-old trunk/branches and leaves were contributed by gamma rays. However, the dose contribution from radionuclides in the lower trunk/branches and leaves was negligible. Conclusion: The fir tree model provides organ-specific DC values, which are satisfactory for the practical calculation of the absorbed dose rate of radiation from inside the tree. These calculations are based on the measurement of radionuclide concentrations in tree organs on the 1-year-old leader shoots of fir trees. With the addition of direct gamma ray measurements of the absorbed dose rate from the tree environment, the total absorbed dose rate was estimated in the terminal bud of fir trees in contaminated forests.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.132-146
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• 2017

Appropriate speed limits at a reasonable level in urban roads are highly important factors for efficient and safe movement. Thus, it is greatly necessary to develop the objective models or methodology based on engineering study considering factors such as traffic accident rates, roadside development levels, and roadway geometry characteristics etc. The purpose of this study is to develop the estimate model of appropriate speed limits at each road sections in urban roads using traffic information big data and field specific data and to review the effects of accident decrease. In this study, the estimate method of appropriate speed limits in directional two or more lanes of urban roads is reflecting features of actual variables in a form of adjustment factor on the basis of the maximum statutory speed limits. As a result of investigating and testing influential variables, the main variables to affect the operating speed are the function of road, the existence of median, the width of lane, the number of traffic entrance/exit path and the number of traffic signal or nonsignal at intersection and crosswalk. As a result of testing this model, when the differences are bigger between the real operating speed and the recommended speed limits using model developed in this study, the accident rate generally turns out to be higher. In case of using the model proposed in this study, it means accident rate can be lower. When the result of this study is applied, the speed limits of directional two or more lane roads in Seoul appears about 11km/h lower than the current speed limits. The decrease of average operating speed caused by the decrease of speed limits is 2.8km/h, and the decrease effect of whole accidents according to the decrease of speed is 18% at research road. In case that accident severity is considered, the accident decrease effects are expected to 17~24% in fatalities, 11~17% in seriously injured road user, 6~9% in slightly injured road user, 5~6% in property damage only accidents.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.120-126
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• 2011

Under the current law or system, the range of traffic accident on the crosswalk does not reflect the characteristics of traffic accident and the pedestrian's walking pattern. Thus, this study conducted a video recording survey on the 250 spots which are high to traffic accident rate of pedestrian-vehicle to reset the range of traffic accident on or near the crosswalk considering the characteristics of traffic accident and the pedestrian's walking pattern. Based on the collected data through a video recording survey, this study analyzed the pattern of pedestrians and extracted the variables influenced in the pedestrian's walking pattern. After conducting the regression analysis, this study made the model of measuring the range of traffic accident on the crosswalk. Through all processes these, this study reset the range of traffic accident on the crosswalk which could minimize the disadvantages of pedestrian when they have an accident on the crosswalk and ensure the right of way of pedestrian.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.93-101
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• 2011

우리나라의 교통사고 발생현황은 2008년 기준 215,822건으로 예년에 비하여 소폭 감소하는 추세이나 주요 선진국에 비해서는 여전히 높은 수준이다. 그 중 단속류 시설에서 발생하는 사고는 보행자들이 직접적으로 차량에 노출되어 차대사람 사고의 비율이 높아 심각한 결과를 유발하기 때문에 이를 방지하기 위한 추가적인 고려가 필요하다. 이에 교통사고의 유형별로 영향을 미치는 인자를 분석하였다. 단속류 시설에서 교통사고는 크게 차대차 사고와 차대 사람 사고로 그 성격과 특성이 구분될 수 있다. 따라서 교통사고 유형을 크게 두가지로 구분하고, 2005년부터 2007년까지 서대문구에서 발생한 교통사고 자료 분석을 통해 교통사고의 심각도와 외생적 변수들간의 관계를 추정하였다. 본 연구에서는 단속류 시설에서 교통사고 유형별 요인을 구조방정식모형(SEM : Structural Equation Modeling)을 이용하여 도출해내고, 모형을 구축하여 유형별로 사고의 주요인들을 파악하여 비교하였다. 최종 모형에서 도출된 결론은 차대차 사고에서는 도로 요인이, 차대사람 사고에서는 환경 요인이 크게 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권2호
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• pp.532-548
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• 2021

Nuclear power plants contain several monitoring systems that can identify the in-vessel phenomena of a severe accident (SA). Though a lot of analysis and research is carried out on SA, right from the development of the nuclear industry, not all the possible circumstances are taken into consideration. Therefore, to improve the efficacy of the safety of nuclear power plants, additional analytical studies are needed that can directly monitor severe accident phenomena. This paper presents an interacting multiple model (IMM) based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) approach for the identification of in-vessel phenomena to provide the accident propagation information using reactor vessel (RV) out-wall temperature distribution during severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. The estimation of wall temperature is treated as a state estimation problem where the time-varying wall temperature is estimated using IMM employing three multiple models for temperature evolution. From the estimated RV out-wall temperature and rate of temperature, the in-vessel phenomena are identified such as core meltdown, corium relocation, reactor vessel damage, reflooding, etc. We tested the proposed method with five different types of SA scenarios and the results show that the proposed method has estimated the outer wall temperature with good accuracy.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.50-58
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• 2018

Background: In terms of the Level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (Level 3 PSA), ingestion of food that had been exposed to radioactive materials is important to assess the intermediate- and long-term radiological dose. Because the ingestion dose is considerably dependent upon the agricultural and dietary characteristics of each country, the reliability of the assessment results may become diminished if the characteristics of a foreign country are considered. Thus, this study intends to evaluate and analyze the ingestion dose of Korean during a severe accident by completely considering the available agricultural and dietary characteristics in Korea. Materials and Methods: This study uses COMIDA2, which is a program based on dynamic food chain model. It sets the parameters that are appropriate to Korean characteristics so that we can evaluate the inherent ingestion dose of Korean. The results were analyzed by considering the accident date and food category with regard to the $^{137}Cs$. Results and Discussion: The dose and contribution of the food category depicted distinctive differences based on the accident date. Particularly, the ingestion dose during the first and second years depicted a considerable difference by the accident date. However, after the third year, the effect of foliar absorption was negligible and exhibited a similar tendency along with the order of root uptake rate based on the food category. Conclusion: In this study, the agricultural and dietary characteristics of Korea were analyzed and evaluated the ingestion dose of Korean during a severe accident using COMIDA2. By considering the inherent characteristics of Korean, it can be determined that the results of this study will significantly contribute to the reliability of the Level 3 PSA.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.10-18
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• 2003

도시가스시설에서 사고가 발생할 때 그 영향을 평가하는 방법론에 대하여 현실을 고려한 모델을 개발하였다. 즉 사건수목분석(ETA)을 통하여 발생할 수 있는 사고의 형태를 도출하였고 가스의 누출 속도를 음속인 경우와 아음속인 경우에 대하여 계산하였다. 가스의 누출시 화재가 주로 피해를 유발하므로 화재가 발생하여 사망, 화상 및 건물에 피해를 줄 수 있는 경우 그 피해범위를 산정하는 방법을 제시하였다. 마지막으로 적절한 가정을 도입하여 사고로 인한 총 손실비용을 계산하는 방법을 제시하였다.