• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.164-178
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• 2022

Uncertainties in weather forecasts would affect the reliability of yield prediction using crop models. The objective of this study was to compare uncertainty in crop yield prediction caused by the use of the weather forecast data. Daily weather data were produced at 10 km spatial resolution using W eather Research and Forecasting (W RF) model. The nearest neighbor method was used to downscale these data at the resolution of 5 km (W RF5K). Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) was also applied to the WRF data to produce the weather data at the same resolution. W RF5K and PRISM data were used as inputs to the CROPGRO-SOYBEAN model to predict crop yield. The uncertainties of the gridded data were analyzed using cumulative growing degree days (CGDD) and cumulative solar radiation (CSRAD) during the soybean growing seasons for the crop of interest. The degree of agreement (DOA) statistics including structural similarity index were determined for the crop model outputs. Our results indicated that the DOA statistics for CGDD were correlated with that for the maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM data. Yield forecasts had small values of the DOA statistics when large spatial disagreement occured between maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM. These results suggest that the spatial uncertainties in temperature data would affect the reliability of the phenology and, as a result, yield predictions at a greater degree than those in solar radiation data. This merits further studies to assess the uncertainties of crop yield forecasts using a wide range of crop calendars.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.129-141
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• 2023

Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (E_em), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (E_pm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (E_pm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.409-415
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• 2015

For the design of Concrete-Filled Steel Tube(CFST) columns, the outside diameter D to the steel tube thickness t ratio(D/t ratio) is limited to prevent the local buckling of steel tubes. Each design code proposes the respective model to compute the maximum D/t ratio using the yield strength of steel $f_y$ or $f_y$ and the elastic modulus of steel E. Considering the uncertainty in $f_y$ and E, the reliability index ${beta}$ for the local buckling of a CFST section can be calculated by formulating the limit state function including the maximum D/t models. The resulted ${beta}$ depends on the maximum D/t model used for the reliability analysis. This variability in reliability analysis is due to ambiguity in choosing computational models and it is called as "modelling uncertainty." This uncertainty can be considered as "non-specificity" of an epistemic uncertainty and modelled by constructing possibility distribution functions. In this study, three different computation models for the maximum D/t ratio are used to conduct reliability analyses for the local buckling of a CFST section and the reliability index ${beta}$ will be computed respectively. The "non-specific ${beta}s$" will be modelled by possibility distribution function and a metric, degree of confirmation, is measured from the possibility distribution function. It is shown that the degree of confirmation increases when ${beta}$ decreases. Conclusively, a new set of reliability indices associated with a degree of confirmation is determined and it is allowed to decide reliability index for the local buckling of a CFST section with an acceptable confirmation level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.11 no.1 s.38
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• pp.43-54
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• 1999

The divergence connection between steel circular tubes is widely used in such structures as factory facilities, steel circular hollow section truss, and off-shore tower. Steel circular hollow section (SCHS) have close section, and it makes their per-unit production expense higher than open sectioned products like L-shape, H-shape steels, but the sectional resistance of SCHS against vertical compression and torsion is very high. Despite the structural merits of SCHS, however, many engineers dislike to use them in their design because of uncertainty regarding the stress distribution and deformation behavior at their connections. Therefore, this thesis dealt with X-type connections, the most common forms of connection, and studied their load-deformation relationship. It observed how to show the load-deformation relationship at steel circular tube connections according to the diameter-thickness ratio (D/T) of the chord and diameter of branch-diameter of chord ratio (d/D) and suggested prediction yield load using by ring analysis method.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.211-216
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• 2008

Recently a lot of researches have been conducted on the progressive collapse of structures which is the total collapse of structures initiated by localized damage. Most of the previous studies on the field of progressive collapse have followed deterministic approach without considering uncertainty involved in design variables, which results in unknown reliability of the analysis results. In this study the sensitivity analyses are carried out with design variables such as yield strength, live load, damping ratio, and elastic modulus on the vertical deflection of the joint from which a column is suddenly removed. The Monte Calro simulation, tornado diagram method, and the first order second moment method(FOSM) are applied for the sensitivity study. According to the nonlinear static analysis results, the vertical deflection is most affected by the variation of yield strength of beams. The nonlinear dynamic analyses show that the behaviour of model structures is highly sensitive to variation of the yield strength of beams and the structural damping ratio.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.25-40
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• 2004

The supersonic shock wave generated by fully coupled explosion will change into subsonic shock wave, plastic wave, and elastic wave consecutively as the wave propagates through rock mass. While the estimation of the blast-induced peak pressure was the main aim of the companion paper, this paper will concentrate on the estimation of the rise time of blast-induced pressure. The rise time can be expressed as a function of explosive density, isentropic exponent, detonation velocity, exponential coefficient of the peak pressure attenuation, dynamic yield stress, plastic wave velocity, elastic wave velocity, rock density, Hugoniot parameters, etc. Parametric analysis was performed to pinpoint the most influential parameter that affects the rise time and it was found that rock properties are more sensitive than explosive properties. The probabilistic distribution of the rise time is evaluated by the Rosenblueth'S point estimate method from the probabilistic distributions of explosive properties and rock properties. Numerical analysis was performed to figure out the effect of rock properties and explosive properties on the uncertainty of blast-induced vibration. Uncertainty analysis showed that uncertainty of rock properties constitutes the main portion of blast-induced vibration uncertainty rather than that of explosive properties. Numerical analysis also showed that the loading rate, which is the ratio of the peak blasting pressure to the rise time, is the main influential factor on blast-induced vibration. The loading rate is again more influenced by rock properties than by explosive properties.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.203-214
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• 2017

There are two references of genetic information in Korean soybean cultivar. This study suggested that the new seven genetic information to supplement the uncertainty on prediction of potential yield of two references in soybean, and assessed the availability of two references and seven genetic information for future research. We carried out evaluate the prediction on flowering time and potential yield of the two references of genetic parameters and the new seven genetic parameters (New1~New7); the new seven genetic parameters were calibrated in Jinju, Suwon, Chuncheon during 2003-2006. As a result, in the individual and regional combination genetic parameters, the statistical indicators of the genetic parameters of the each site or the genetic parameters of the participating stations showed improved results, but did not significant. In Daegu, Miryang, and Jeonju, the predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of New7 was not improved than that of two references. However, the genetic parameters of New7 showed improvement of predictability on potential yield. No predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of two references as having the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) on flowering time respectively, at 0.00 and 0.01, but the predictability of genetic parameter of New7 was improved as $R^2$ on flowering time of New7 was 0.31 in Miryang. On the other hand, $R^2$ on potential yield of genetic parameters of two references were respectively 0.66 and 0.41, but no predictability on potential yield of genetic parameter of New7 as $R^2$ of New7 showed 0.00 in Jeonju. However, it is expected that the regional combination genetic parameters with the good evaluation can be utilized to predict the flowering timing and potential yields of other regions. Although it is necessary to analyze further whether or not the input data is uncertain.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.1771-1776
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• 2003

In mobile robot navigation, one of the key problems is the pose estimation of the mobile robot. Although the odometry can be used to describe the motions of the mobile robots quite simple and accurately, the validities of the models are limited by a number of error sources contaminating the encoder outputs so that applying the conventional extended Kalman filter to these nominal model does not yield the satisfactory performance. As a remedy for this problem, we consider the uncertain nonlinear kinematic model of the mobile robot that contains the norm bounded uncertainties and also propose a new robust extended Kalman filter based on the Krein space approach. The proposed robust filter has the same recursive structure as the conventional extended Kalman filter and can hence be readily designed to effectively account for the uncertainties. The computer simulations will be given to verify the robustness against the parameter variation as well as the reliable performance of the proposed robust filter.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.307-312
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• 2008

Local damage may cause sequential collapse of structure, which is called progressive collapse. Current progressive collapse analysis is based on the mean value of design variables. This deterministic approach has a low reliability as it doesn't consider uncertainty of variables. In this study the sensitivity of design variables for progressive collapse of structure is evaluated by Monte Calro simulation and Tornado diagram. The analysis results show that the behaviour of model structures is highly sensitive to variation of the yield force of beams and the structural damping ratio.