• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weighted Average Model

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Development of Estimation Model of Trip Generation Model and Trip Distribution Model Reflecting Coefficient of Accessibility (접근성 변수를 반영한 통행발생 및 통행분포모형 개발)

  • Jeon, Yong-Hyun;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Jang, Jun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.576-584
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    • 2017
  • Traffic demand prediction result is a primary factor for decision making such as the traffic planning and operation. The existing traffic demand prediction 4-step model only covers the trip between the origin and the destination, and not the demand followed by the accessibility improvement, due to the characteristic of this model. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to improve the limitations of the existing model by developing the inter-city trip generation and trip distribution model with more accessibility. After calculating of the trip generation and trip distribution model with more accessibility, the sign of the accessibility coefficient was positive. Commuting was the most insensitive indicator, affected by external factors among the other trip purposes. The leisure trip was the most sensitive, affected by the trip fee. According to the result of comparison with each of estimated model and observational data, it was certain that the reliability and assumption of the model have been improved by discovering the reduced weighted average error rate, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and total error through the model with more accessibility compared with the existing one.

Study on Estimation of the Appropriate Social Discount Rate for Evaluating Public Investment Project (공공투자사업 평가의 적정 사회적할인율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Byeong-Cheol;Son, Ui-Yeong;O, Mi-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2010
  • When the cost-benefit analysis is applied for social discount rate(SDR), the choice of SDR to be used in analysis is critical. One of the important issues when public investment project evaluate what is the SDR theory, so there have studied about SDR and no exact answer it so far. In this study, there are three of SDR theories that be estimated social time preference rate, social investment returns and the weighted average method from 1990s, 2000 to 2003 and 2004 to 2008.. First, social time preference method computes consumer's interest rate and the model of Pearce and Ulph(1999). Second, social investment returns method computes private returns of capital. Third, the weighted average method computes the model of Squire, L., Herman G. van der Tak(1975) and private consumption expense and the private investment expense. SDR is estimated in the rage between 2.4% and 3.9% from 2004 to 2008. It is not appropriate that the interest rate was unstable. But it is consider for social equity from present to future generations. Considering this things, downward need to the value of current SDR 5.5%.

A study on the economic production quantity model with partial backorders (부분부재고를 고려한 경제적 생산량모델에 관한 연구)

  • ;;Kim, Jung Ja
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 1994
  • This paper is to build an economic production quantity model for situations, in which, during the stockout period, a fraction .betha.(backorder ratio) of the demand is backordered and remaining fraction (1-.betha.) is lost. This paper develops an objective function representing the average annual cost of a production system by defining a time-weighted backorder cost and a lost sales penalty cost per unit lost under the assumptions of deterministic demand rate and deterministic production rate, and provides an algorithm for its optimal solution. At the extreme .betha.= 1, the presented model reduces to the Fabrycky's model with complete backorders.

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Real time forecasting of rainfall-runoff using multiple model adaptive estimation (다중모델적응추정방식을 이용한 강우-유출량의 실시간 예측)

  • 최선욱;김운해;김영철
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1996.10b
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    • pp.24-27
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    • 1996
  • The storage function method(SFM) is one of hydrologic flood routings which has been used most widely in Korea and Japan. This paper presents a storage function method using multiple model adaptive estimation(MMAE), in which a model set is generated by partitioning storage parameters over feasible range, and each storage function model is estimated, and then the weighted average of them is calculated. Finally, the future runoff is predicted in real time by means of observed data of water level at dam and rainfall. Simulation results applied to actual data show that the proposed method has much better performance than that of conventional SFM.

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Multivariate GARCH and Its Application to Bivariate Time Series

  • Choi, M.S.;Park, J.A.;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.915-925
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    • 2007
  • Multivariate GARCH has been useful to model dynamic relationships between volatilities arising from each component series of multivariate time series. Methodologies including EWMA(Exponentially weighted moving-average model), DVEC(Diagonal VEC model), BEKK and CCC(Constant conditional correlation model) models are comparatively reviewed for bivariate time series. In addition, these models are applied to evaluate VaR(Value at Risk) and to construct joint prediction region. To illustrate, bivariate stock prices data consisting of Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics are analysed.

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Estimation of Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide in Professional Drivers Using Time Activity Pattern (시간행동 행태을 이용한 영업용 운전자들의 이산화질소 개인 노출량 예측)

  • 방용남;손부순;양원호;박종안;장봉기
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.20-26
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    • 2001
  • personal nitrogen dioxide(NO$_2$) exposures for 31 professional drivers were measured using passive sampler and time activity diary in Asan and Chunan area, and were estimated using time-weighted average model. Mean concentrations of driver’s indoor and outdoor were 24.7$\pm$10.7 ppb and 23.3$\pm$8.3 ppb, respectively with indoor/outdoor of 1.1. Mean personal NO$_2$ exposure was 30.3$\pm$9.7 ppb. Personal NO$_2$ exposures were strongly correlated with indoor car NO$_2$ levels ($R^2$=0.80) rather than residential indoor NO$_2$ level ($R^2$=0.55). and outdoor NO$_2$ level ($R^2$=0.50). The driver’s NO$_2$ exposure using LP-gas with 24.4$\pm$8.0 ppb were statistically different from those using diesel with 36.3$\pm$14.1 ppb(p<0.01). The effect of driver’s smoking for personal NO$_2$ exposure was not found. It was considered that the main NO$_2$in driver is transportation. Since drivers mostly spent their times in indoor and inside car, time-weighted average model could be used to estimated personal NO$_2$ exposure using time activity diary, Though we did not measure all microenvironments, the estimated personal NO$_2$ exposures with 26.9$\pm$10.2 ppb were statistically correlated with measured personal NO $_2$ exposures30.3$\pm$9.7 ppb ($R^2$=0.89). The mean and standard deviation of personal NO$_2$ exposure using Mote-Carlo simulation were 26.6$\pm$7.2 ppb.

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Identifications of Source Locations for Atmospheric Total Gaseous Mercury Using Hybrid Receptor Models (Hybrid receptor model을 이용한 대기 중 총 가스상 수은의 오염원 위치 추정 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Mi;Yi, Seung-Muk;Heo, Jong-Bae;Hong, Ji-Hyoung;Lee, Suk-Jo;Yoo, Chul
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.971-981
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    • 2010
  • The objectives of this study were to measure ambient total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations in Seoul, to analyze the characteristics of TGM concentration, and to identify of possible source areas for TGM using back-trajectory based hybrid receptor models like PSCF (Potential Source Contribution Function) and RTWC (Residence Time Weighted Concentration). Ambient TGM concentrations were measured at the roof of Graduate School of Public Health building in Seoul for a period of January to October 2004. Average TGM concentration was $3.43{\pm}1.17\;ng/m^3$. TGM had no notable pattern according to season and meteorological phenomena such as rainfall, Asian dust, relative humidity and so on. Hybrid receptor models incorporating backward trajectories including potential source contribution function (PSCF) and residence time weighted concentration (RTWC) were performed to identify source areas of TGM. Before hybrid receptor models were applied for TGM, we analysed sensitivities of starting height for HYSPLIT model and critical value for PSCF. According to result of sensitivity analysis, trajectories were calculated an arrival height of 1000 m was used at the receptor location and PSCF was applied using average concentration as criterion value for TGM. Using PSCF and RTWC, central and eastern Chinese industrial areas and the west coast of Korea were determined as important source areas. Statistical analysis between TGM and GEIA grided emission bolsters the evidence that these models could be effective tools to identify possible source area and source contribution.

High-Efficiency Design of a Ventilation Axial-Flow Fan by Using Weighted Average Surrogate Models (가중평균대리모델을 이용한 환기용 축류송풍기의 고효율 최적설계)

  • Kim, Jae-Woo;Kim, Jin-Hyuk;Lee, Chan;Kim, Kwang-Yong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.35 no.8
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    • pp.763-771
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    • 2011
  • An optimization procedure for the design of a ventilation axial-flow fan is presented in this paper. Flow analyses of the preliminary fan are performed by solving three-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations via a finite-volume solver with the shear-stress transport turbulence model as a turbulence closure. Three variables, the hub-to-tip ratio and the stagger angles at the mid and tip spans, are selected for the optimization. The Latin-hypercube sampling method as a design-of-experiments technique is used to generate twenty-five design points within the design space. and the weighted average surrogate models, WTA1, WTA2, and WTA3, are applied for find optimal designs. The results show that the efficiency is considerably enhanced.

Number of sampling leaves for reflectance measurement of Chinese cabbage and kale

  • Chung, Sun-Ok;Ngo, Viet-Duc;Kabir, Md. Shaha Nur;Hong, Soon-Jung;Park, Sang-Un;Kim, Sun-Ju;Park, Jong-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.169-175
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    • 2014
  • Objective of this study was to investigate effects of pre-processing method and number of sampling leaves on stability of the reflectance measurement for Chinese cabbage and kale leaves. Chinese cabbage and kale were transplanted and cultivated in a plant factory. Leaf samples of the kale and cabbage were collected at 4 weeks after transplanting of the seedlings. Spectra data were collected with an UV/VIS/NIR spectrometer in the wavelength region from 190 to 1130 nm. All leaves (mature and young leaves) were measured on 9 and 12 points in the blade part in the upper area for kale and cabbage leaves, respectively. To reduce the spectral noise, the raw spectral data were preprocessed by different methods: i) moving average, ii) Savitzky-Golay filter, iii) local regression using weighted linear least squares and a $1^{st}$ degree polynomial model (lowess), iv) local regression using weighted linear least squares and a $2^{nd}$ degree polynomial model (loess), v) a robust version of 'lowess', vi) a robust version of 'loess', with 7, 11, 15 smoothing points. Effects of number of sampling leaves were investigated by reflectance difference (RD) and cross-correlation (CC) methods. Results indicated that the contribution of the spectral data collected at 4 sampling leaves were good for both of the crops for reflectance measurement that does not change stability of measurement much. Furthermore, moving average method with 11 smoothing points was believed to provide reliable pre-processed data for further analysis.

A study on light weighted injection molding technology and warpage reduction for lightweight automotive head lamp parts (자동차 헤드램프 부품의 경량화 사출 성형기술 및 변형 저감에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Eui-Chul;Son, Jung-Eon;Min, Sung-Ki;Kim, Jong-Heon;Lee, Sung-Hee
    • Design & Manufacturing
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2019
  • In this study, micro cellular injection molding of automobile head lamp housing with uneven thickness structure was performed to obtain improvement on deformation and light-weight of the part. The thickness of the presented model was uniformly modified to control the deformation of the molded part. In order to maximize the lightweight ratio, the model having an average thickness of 2.0 mm were thinly molded to an average thickness of 1.6 mm. GFM(Gas Free Molding) and CBM(Core Back Molding) technology were applied to improve the problems of the conventional foam molding method. Equal Heat & Cool system was also applied by 3D cooling core and individual flow control system. Warpage of the molded parts with even cooling was minimized. To improve the mechanical properties of foamed products, complex resin containing nano-filler was used and variation of mechanical properties was evaluated. It was shown that the weight reduction ratio of products with light-weighted injection molding was 8.9 % and the deformation of the products was improved from the maximum of 3.6 mm to 2.0 mm by applying Equal Heat & Cool mold cooling system. Also the mechanical strength reduction of foamed product was less than 12% at maximum.