• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.50
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• pp.373-380
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• 1999

This paper summerizes the former 5 papers that studied computer programming for the estimation of the Weibull, Extreme value, Hazard, Normal and Log-normal parameters which have a close relation with the reliability of the various kinds of industrial products. Probability paper is very commonly used in estimating the parameters, however, it is very hard to neglect the errors in plotting the data, and especially in drawing the regression line. The main purpose of this paper is to reduce these errors and to help the engineers to use the parameters in improving the reliability of their prod- ucts. The following parts are included in the computer programming with the em- phases on significant digits and rounding of numerical values : $\bullet$ data input part for various cases $\bullet$ parameter estimation part $\bullet$ printing part for input data $\bullet$ printing part for the results $\bullet$ printing part for the graphic(probability paper). And the running results(monitor displays) of the program for a fictitious example of Weibull distribution is given for the interested ones.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.61-67
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• 2000

Gears are the most commonly used parts in automotive and industrial applications. One of most common modes of gear failures is tooth breakage, which is usually produced by the bending fatigue failure. It is important to manufacture the gears which can withstand the applied stresses in view of safety and economic requirement. This paper deals with bending fatigue strength for cold forged bevel gear. Especially, to compare fatigue characteristics for manufacturing processes difference, bending fatigue tests of bevel gears made by three different processes respectively. Results indicate that the fatigue strength of bevel gear is improved by cold forging process. Intergranular fracture is found on fatigue fracture surface, and dimples are observed on final fracture surface. The fatigue failure cannot be considered as a deterministic quantity, but must be characterized statistically. This study proposes a method to estimate bending fatigue lift of the bevel gear using the probability-load-life and Weibull analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.152-161
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• 1993

This paper deals with the effect of spatial distribution of material properties on its statistical characteristics and numerical estimation method of reliability of fatigue sensitive structures with respect to the fatigue crack growth. A method is proposed to determine experimentally the probability distribution functions of material parameters of Paris law. da/dN=C(ΔK/K sub(0) ) super(m), using stress intensity factor controlled fatigue tests. The result with a high tensile strength steel shows that the distribution of the parameter m is approximately normal and that of 1/C, is a 3-parameter Weibull. The main result obtained are : (1) The theoretical autocorrelation of the resistance, 1/C, to fatigue crack growth are almost same for different lengths. (2) The variance decreases with the increasing a averaging length. When spatial correlation length is very small. the variane decreases significantly were the averaging length. (3) The probability distribution of load cycles or the number for a crack to reach a certain length can be estimated using these functions by simulation of non-Gaussian(expecially Weibull) Stochastic Process.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.76-85
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• 1986

This study was intended to examine the failure characteristics and breakdowns of the head-fed type combines generally used on farms. The failure distribution was assumed to follow Weibull distribution function and the Weibull parameters of the major parts, units and combine as whole were estimated by using the data collected in a survey. A computer program for the estimation of the Weibull parameter was developed. Monte Carlo method was used in predicting the time between failures. The results of study may be summarized as follows: 1. The number of failures per combine was 4.83 times per year and 0.3 times per hectare of combines of different ages. 2. According to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test method, it was proved that the Weibull distribution function is well fitted to the characteristics of the failure and breakdowns of combines. 3. Weibull parameters of failure distribution of the combine as a whole were estimated to give the shape parameter ${\beta}$=1.3089 and the scale parameter ${\alpha}$=105.2409. The combining area with 80% reliability was 1.1 ha, and the probability of operating the combine without any failure for a year, was $2.76{\times}10^{-4}$. 4. The mean time between failures (MTBF) of the combines was predicted to be 3.2 ha of operation, which corresponds to 32 hours of operation.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.325-337
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• 2017

In this paper, we proposed a new long-term lifetime distribution with four parameters inserted in a risk competitive scenario with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard rate functions, namely the Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution. This new distribution arises from a scenario of competitive latent risk, in which the lifetime associated to the particular risk is not observable, and where only the minimum lifetime value among all risks is noticed in a long-term context. However, it can also be used in any other situation as long as it fits the data well. The Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution is presented as a particular case for the new exponential-Poisson long-term distribution and Weibull long-term distribution. The properties of the proposed distribution were discussed, including its probability density, survival and hazard functions and explicit algebraic formulas for its order statistics. Assuming censored data, we considered the maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation. For different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages various simulation studies were performed to study the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimative, and compare the performance of the model proposed with the particular cases. The selection criteria Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and likelihood ratio test were used for the model selection. The relevance of the approach was illustrated on two real datasets of where the new model was compared with its particular cases observing its potential and competitiveness.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.739-746
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• 2004

The plastic deformation behavior of an aluminum alloy containing a particle and porosities was investigated at room temperature during equal channel angular pressing (ECAP). Finite element analysis by using ABAQUS shows that ECAP is a useful tool for eliminating residual porosity in the specimen, and more effective under friction condition. The simulation, however, shows considerably low density distributions for matrix near a particle at which many defects may occur during severe deformation. Finite element results of effective strains and deformed shapes for matrix with a particle were compared with theoretical calculations under simple shear stress. Also, based on the distribution of the maximum principal stress in the specimen, Weibull fracture probability was obtained for particle sizes and particle-coating layer materials. The probability was useful to predict the trend of more susceptible failure of a brittle coating layer than a particle without an interphase in metal matrix composites.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.1731-1740
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• 2013

The design life and durability of the bridges are strongly affected by the Gross Vehicle Weight(GVW) of heavyweight trucks. The Weigh-In-Motion(WIM) systems are typically used to collect information on truck total weight and speed. The statistical analysis of the GVW measured using High Speed WIM systems showed that most of heavy vehicles were from Vehicle Type 7, 10, and 12. The analysis was also carried out to determine goodness of fit with theoretical probability distributions. The normal distribution was shown to best describe the overall distribution of GVW. The top 10% of the GVW appeared to best fit by the Weibull 3 probability distribution.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.1157-1162
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• 2003

Behavior of aluminum alloy embedding a particle was investigated at room temperature under ECAP. Finite element analysis by using ABAQUS shows that ECAP is a useful tool for eliminating residual porosity in the specimen, and much more effective under friction condition. The simulation, however, shows considerably low density distributions for matrix near a particle at which rich defects may occur during severe deformation. Finite element results of effective strains and deformed shapes for matrix with a particle were compared with theoretical calculations under simple shear stress. Also, based on the distribution of the maximum principal stress in the specimen, Weibull fracture probability was obtained for particle sizes and particle-coating layer materials. The probability was useful to predict the trend of more susceptible failure of a brittle coating layer than a particle without an interphase in metal matrix composites.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.214-221
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• 1999

Spot welding is very important and useful technology in fabriaction of the thin sheet structure such as the automobile, train and air craft, Because fatigue strength of the spot welding point is however considerably lower than base metal due to stress concentration at the nugget edge, reasonable fatigue strength evaluation of spot welded lap joint is very important to estimate the reliability and durability of th spot welded structure and to establish a criterion of ling life fatigue design. For reasonalbe fatigue strength evaluation, it is necessary to estimate the fatigue strength of spot welded lap joints, systematically. So far, many investigators have numerically and experimentally studied on the systematic fatigue strength estimation for various spot welded lap joints, and the methods suggested has been considerably accumulated. By the way, for applying them in practical fatigue design of the thin sheet structure fabricated by spot welding ,it is also necessary to verify their efficiency and reliability on the predicted results, Therefore, in this study, a statistical fatigue strength estimation method for spot welded lap joints was developed by using the Weibull probability distribution function. From the result, it was found that fatigue strength and fatigue life of the spot welded lap joints having various dimension were able to be statically predicted . And also, a reliable criterion for long life fatigue design of the spot welded lap joint could be established.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.9
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• pp.1325-1330
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• 2010

The breakdown of any critical component of a turbine results in the outage of power plants. Unexpected failure decreases equipment utilization and causes enormous economic losses. Currently, we conduct conservative preventive maintenance for a maintenance period that is proposed by a vendor. In the rapidly changing business environment, reliability-based maintenance is required in order to remain competitive and reduce maintenance costs while maintaining the reliability of equipment. In order to determine an appropriate maintenance period for guaranteeing reliability, we must determine the failure probability by carefully analyzing the failure history of the equipment. In this study, we created a database of failure history for power-plant turbines, predicted the best repair time using the Weibull function, and investigated how the appropriate maintenance cycle can be determined.