• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull probability

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The Determination of Probability Distributions of Annual, Seasonal and Monthly Precipitation in Korea (우리나라의 연 강수량, 계절 강수량 및 월 강수량의 확률분포형 결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Yeob;Lee, Sang-Ho;Hong, Young-Joo;Lee, Eun-Jai;Im, Sang-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to determine the best probability distributions of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in Korea. Data observed at 32 stations in Korea were analyzed using the L-moment ratio diagram and the average weighted distance (AWD) to identify the best probability distributions of each precipitation. The probability distribution was best represented by 3-parameter Weibull distribution (W3) for the annual precipitation, 3-parameter lognormal distribution (LN3) for spring and autumn seasons, and generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) for summer and winter seasons. The best probability distribution models for monthly precipitation were LN3 for January, W3 for February and July, 2-parameter Weibull distribution (W2) for March, generalized Pareto distribution (GPA) for April, September, October and November, GEV for May and June, and log-Pearson type III (LP3) for August and December. However, from the goodness-of-fit test for the best probability distributions of the best fit, GPA for April, September, October and November, and LN3 for January showed considerably high reject rates due to computational errors in estimation of the probability distribution parameters and relatively higher AWD values. Meanwhile, analyses using data from 55 stations including additional 23 stations indicated insignificant differences to those using original data. Further studies using more long-term data are needed to identify more optimal probability distributions for each precipitation.

Selecting probability distribution of event mean concentrations from paddy fields (논으로부터 배출되는 유량가중평균 수질농도의 적정 확률분포 선정)

  • Jung, Jaewoon;Choi, Dongho;Yoon, Kwangsik
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.285-295
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we analyzed probability distribution of EMCs (Event Mean Concentration) of COD, TOC, T-N, T-P and SS from rice paddy fields and compared the mean values of observed EMCs and the median values of estimated EMCs ($EMC_{50}$) through probability distribution. The field monitoring was conducted during a period of four crop-years (from May 1, 2008, to September 30. 2011) in a rice cultivation area located in Emda-myun, Hampyeong gun, Jeollanam-do, Korea. Four probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gamma, and Weibull distribution were used to fit values of EMCs from rice paddy fields. Our results showed that the applicable probability distributions were Normal, Log-normal, and Gamma distribution for COD, and Normal, Log- Normal, Gamma and Weibull distribution for T-N, and Log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distribution for T-P and TOC, and Log-normal and Gamma distribution for SS. Log-normal and Gamma distributions were acceptable for EMCs of all water quality constituents(COD, TOC, T-N, T-P and SS). Meanwhile, mean value of observed COD was similar to median value estimated by the gamma distribution, and TOC, T-N, T-P, and SS were similar to median value estimated by log-normal distribution, respectively.

A Mathematical model to estimate the wind power using three parameter Weibull distribution

  • Seshaiah, C.V.;Sukkiramathi, K.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.393-408
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    • 2016
  • Weibull distribution is a suitable distribution to use in modeling the life time data. It has been found to be a exact fit for the empirical distribution of the wind speed measurement samples. In brief this paper consist of important properties and characters of Weibull distribution. Also we discuss the application of Weibull distribution to wind speed measurements and derive an expression for the probability distribution of the power produced by a wind turbine at a fixed location, so that the modeling problem reduces to collecting data to estimate the three parameters of the Weibull distribution using Maximum likelihood Method.

Mathematical representation to assess the wind resource by three parameter Weibull distribution

  • Sukkiramathi, K.;Rajkumar, R.;Seshaiah, C.V.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.419-430
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    • 2020
  • Weibull distribution is a conspicuous distribution known for its accuracy and its usage for wind energy analysis. The two and three parameter Weibull distributions are adopted in this study to fit wind speed data. The daily mean wind speed data of Ennore, Tamil Nadu, India has been used to validate the procedure. The parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood method, least square method and moment method. Four statistical tests namely Root mean square error, R2 test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Anderson-Darling test are employed to inspect the fitness of Weibull probability density functions. The value of shape factor, scale factor, wind speed and wind power are determined at a height of 100m using extrapolation of numerical equations. Also, the value of capacity factor is calculated mathematically. This study provides a way to evaluate feasible locations for wind energy assessment, which can be used at any windy site throughout the world.

Statistics and Probability Distribution of Total Coliforms in Wastewater (하수에서의 대장균수 확률분포 특성 분석)

  • Jun, Sang Min;Song, Inhong;Jeong, Han Seok;Kang, Moon Seong;Park, Seung Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.105-111
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    • 2013
  • Probability distribution of microbes in wastewater is a crucial factor to be determined for microbial risk assessment associated with its reuse. The objective of this study was to investigate probability distribution of an indicator microorganism in wastewater. Daily total coliform counts measured from nationwide wastewater treatment plants in 2010 by the Ministry of Environment were used for statistical analysis. Basic statistics and probability distributions were estimated in the three different spatial scales using the MS Excel software and FARD2006 model. Overall, wastewater from manure and livestock treatment plants demonstrated greater median coliform counts than from sewage and village treatment plants. Generalized logistic (GLO) and 2-parameter Weibull (WBU2) appeared to be the two probability distributions that fitted best for total coliform numbers in wastewater. The study results of microbial statistics and probability distributions would provide useful data for quantitative assessment of microbial risk from agricultural wastewater reuse.

Evaluation of Extreme Sea Levels Using Long Term Tidal Data (검조기록을 이용한 극치해면 산정)

  • 심재설;오병철;김상익
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.250-260
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    • 1992
  • Two methods for computing extreme sea levels, which are the extreme probability method and the joint probability method, are examined at five different ports (Incheon, Cheju, Yeosu, Pusan, Mukho). The extreme probability mothod estimates the extreme sea levels from three different probability papers of Gumbel, Weibull and generalized extreme value(GEV) using the least square method, conventional moment method and probability weighted moment method. respectively. The results showed that the extreme sea levels estimated by the Gumbel paper or the least square method appeared higher than those calculated by other papers or methods. The extreme values estimated by the extreme probability method are approximately 5-10 cm lower than the values by the joint probability method.

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ON CHARACTERIZATIONS OF PARETO AND WEIBULL DISTRIBUTIONS BY CONSIDERING CONDITIONAL EXPECTATIONS OF UPPER RECORD VALUES

  • Jin, Hyun-Woo;Lee, Min-Young
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.243-247
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    • 2014
  • Let {$X_n$, $n{\geq}1$} be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with absolutely continuous cumulative distribution function(cdf) F(x) and the corresponding probability density function(pdf) f(x). In this paper, we give characterizations of Pareto and Weibull distribution by considering conditional expectations of record values.

A Computer Program for Weibull Parameter Estimation (와이블분포(分布) 모수추정(母數推定)의 컴퓨터 프로그램)

  • Eom, Tae-Won;Jeong, Su-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 1981
  • This paper deals with the estimation of the Weibull parameters, which have a close relation with product reliability characteristics. Among the many kinds of estimation methods, Ishikawa's Weibull Probability Paper (WPP) is commonly used. The WPP is very convenient, but it has a great disadvantage in estimation accuracy by plotting method. It is very difficult to get the same results even if one use the same data several times. A computer program for the regression method is used for the parameter estimation to reduce these errors.

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A study on Weibull Probability Statistics Characteristics for Vickers Hardness of Degraded Stainless Steel (열화된 스테인리스강의 비커스 경도에 대한 와이블 확률 통계 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Nam, Ki-Woo;Cho, Sung-Duck;Kim, Seon-Jin;Ahn, Seok-Hwan
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2017
  • Vickers hardness is an important material in the design and reliability is required. Therefore, these values are very important as the basic data for design, manufacture and development, and the identification of quantitative probability distribution characteristics such as mean and dispersion is a very important parameter in design. In this study, Vickers hardness was measured after artificially heat-treated in the temperature range 753K, where chrome depletion near the grain boundary occurred for three kinds of stainless steels, and the Vickers hardness were evaluated. From the results, Vickers hardness increased with increasing heat treatment temperature. In Weibull distribution for Vickers hardness, the dispersion of STS310S at 813K and 873K was small, and the dispersion of STS316L at 753K, 933K and 993K was small. Also, STS347H exhibited the lowest dispersion at 753K in three kinds of stainless steels. The scale parameter increased with increasing heat treatment temperature in three kinds of stainless steels.

Effect of Dry Deposition on Water Quality -The comparison of several methodologies for estimating dry deposition flux (수질에 대한 대기건식침적의 영향 - 건식침적량 추정 방법론의 비교를 중심으로)

  • Cheong, Jang-Pyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.159-168
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    • 2008
  • A special field experiment has been carried out from March 2001 to June 2001 at the Changhowon in Kyunggi to investigate a better methodology for the estimation of dry deposition of pollutions applicable in Korea. In this study, dry deposition plate was used to measure of total and water soluble acidic mass fluxes, and CPRI(Coarse Particle Rotary Impactor), CI(Cascade Impactor) were also used to measure ambient concentrations in various particle size ranges. Sehmel-Hodgson model was used to estimate dry depostion velocity and Weibull probability distribution function was applied to get generalized particle size distribution for the size fractioned concentration data sampled by CPRI and CI. Atmospheric dry deposition fluxes of mass and ionic matters estimated by the various techniques(one-step, multi-step, equi-concentration, subdivision for only the coarse particle range, applying Weibull distribution function, etc.) were compared to flux data sampled by DDP. It was found out that the deposition fluxes estimation methodology calculated by the each particle size range devided by particle size distribution characteristics and the rapidly changed points of deposition velocity using Weibull probability distribution function was the most applicable.