• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.165-177
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• 2019

This paper considers corrosion wastage of two ship hull structure members as a part of investigated fuel oil tanks of 25 aging bulk carriers. Taking into account that many factors which influence corrosion wastage of ship hull structures are of uncertain nature, the related corrosion rate ($c_1$) is considered here as a real-valued continuous distribution, assuming that the corrosion wastage starts after 5, 6 or 7 years. In all considered cases, by using available data and applying three basic statistical tests, it is established that between two-parameter continuous distributions, normal, Weibull and logistic distributions are best fitted distributions for the mentioned corrosion rate ($c_1$). Note that the presented statistical, numerical and graphical results concerning two mentioned ship hull structure members allow to compare and discuss the corresponding probabilistic estimates for the corrosion rate ($c_1$).

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2002년도 추계학술대회 논문집(I)
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• pp.150-155
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• 2002

En case of the fatigue life evaluation of rolling stock structures, mainly deterministic fatigue life evaluation has been carried out. But most of the parameters influencing on the fatigue life have a probabilistic distribution such as normal, log-normal, Weibull, etc. Therefore, to take probabilistic factors into fatigue life evaluation, probabilistic methods are being applied to the fatigue life evaluation of rolling stock. In this paper, probabilistic S-N analysis and methods using limit state functions are introduced. And some results of fatigue life evaluation obtained with these methods for rolling stock structures are shown.

• 대한기계학회논문집
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• 제18권11호
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• pp.2894-2901
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• 1994

Many researchers presented a probabilistic and statistical property of the material strength. However, the study on probabilistic and statistical property of fatigue fracture toughness has not been nearly presented. Major objectives in this paper are to compare the statistical test results of fatigue fracture toughness with those obtained in the tensile experiments, and to recognize the size effect for the probabilistic and statistical property by using specimens with various thickness.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.453-463
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• 2013

The probabilistic nature of renewable energy, especially wind energy, increases the needs for new forms of planning and operating with electrical power. This paper presents a novel approach for determining the short-term generation schedule for optimal operations of wind energy-integrated power systems. The proposed probabilistic security-constrained optimal power flow (P-SCOPF) considers dispatch, network, and security constraints in pre- and post-contingency states. The method considers two sources of uncertainty: power demand and wind speed. The power demand is assumed to follow a normal distribution, while the correlated wind speed is modeled by the Weibull distribution. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to choose input variables of power demand and wind speed from their probability distribution functions. Then, P-SCOPF can be applied to the input variables. This approach was tested on a modified IEEE 30-bus system with two wind farms. The results show that the proposed approach provides information on power system economics, security, and environmental parameters to enable better decision-making by system operators.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2002년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.393-398
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• 2002

This study shows the fatigue test results of experiment on the strengthened slabs, the probability analysis of the fatigue behavior is also presented. Static und fatigue tests were performed on bridge decks strengthened with fiber plastics(Carbon Fiber Sheet, Glass Fiber Sheet, Grid Type Carbon Fiber). In this study, to analyze the probabilistic distribution of the fatigue life, the Weibull distribution was adopted. The Weibull distribution coefficient is inferred from the S-N diagram and the number of repeated load. As the result analysis, as the stress level is higher, the fatigue limit of the strengthened bridge deck are similarly discovered but in the range of the fatigue limit, CG specimen that was strengthened with Grid Type Carbon was proved most effective of reinforcement.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.1924-1934
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• 2023

In this study, the probabilistic fatigue life model for Ni-base alloys was developed based on the Weibull distribution using statistical analysis of fatigue data reported in NUREG/CR-6909 and the new fatigue data of Alloy 52M/152 and 82/182. The developed Weibull model can consider right-censored data (i.e., non-failed data) and quantify the improved safety (or reliability) based on the level of failure probability. The overall margin in the current fatigue design limit model (ASME design curve + NUREG/CR-6909 F_en model) is similar to that of the Weibull model with a cumulative failure probability of approximately 2.5%. The margin in the current fatigue design limit model demonstrated inconsistencies for the Ni-base alloy weld data, whereas the Weibull model showed a consistent margin. Therefore, the Weibull model can systematically mitigate the excessive safety margin.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.485-501
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• 2015

Cooling by the flow of water through an embedded cooling pipe has become a common and effective artificial thermal control measure for massive concrete structures. However, an extreme thermal gradient induces significant thermal stress, resulting in thermal cracking. Using a mesoscopic finite-element (FE) mesh, three-phase composites of concrete namely aggregate, mortar matrix and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) are modeled. An equivalent probabilistic model is presented for failure study of concrete by assuming that the material properties conform to the Weibull distribution law. Meanwhile, the correlation coefficient introduced by the statistical method is incorporated into the Weibull distribution formula. Subsequently, a series of numerical analyses are used for investigating the influence of the correlation coefficient on tensile strength and the failure process of concrete based on the equivalent probabilistic model. Finally, as an engineering application, damage and failure behavior of concrete cracks induced by a water-cooling pipe are analyzed in-depth by the presented model. Results show that the random distribution of concrete mechanical parameters and the temperature gradient near water-cooling pipe have a significant influence on the pattern and failure progress of temperature-induced micro-cracking in concrete.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제51권1호
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• pp.7-14
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• 2002

In power system study, relibility assessment has been an important topic during past several decards because sudden power interruption can bring about enormous economic loss. although the size of a substation is smaller than that of generation system or transmission system, switching actions after fault(s) make reliability assessment of substation rather complex situations such as switching actions easily and permit various probability distributions in describing substation elements. Despite this ability of Monte Carlo simulation, one-parameter exponential distribution is still popular in this reliability assessment. This paper examines the characteristics of several two-parameter probability distributions, and offers new parameter decision rule based on average and variance of the target to be modelled. In case study, this paper shows the profits by using Weibull distribution which is one of two-parameter probabilistic distributions instead of exponential one.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.69-71
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• 2004

This paper presents a method to predict failure probability related to aging. To calculate failure probability, the Weibull distribution is used due to age-related reliability. The Weibull distribution has shape and scale parameters. Each estimated parameter is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type II Censoring) which is relatively simpler and faster than the traditional calculation ways for estimating parameters. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an age-related reliability index.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.1356-1362
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• 1996

Fracture toughness of heterogeneous brittle materials such as poly crystalline ceramics used to present the size (thickness) effect as well as statistically distributed results. There is belief that both(size effect and scatter) must be associated with each other. However, no generally accepted theory has been established so far. Using statistical approach, a probabilistic modeling for the fracture toughness which describes the thickness effect was attempted in this paper, Weibull distribution of specific fracture energy(SFE)at local areas and Griffith criterion are applied to the model. In addition, the newly developed model was verified with experimental results of alumina.