확률 통계적 기법을 이용한 발전설비 고장확률 예측

Failure Probability Prediction based on probabilistic and stochastic methods in generating units

This paper presents a method to predict failure probability related to aging. To calculate failure probability, the Weibull distribution is used due to age-related reliability. The Weibull distribution has shape and scale parameters. Each estimated parameter is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type II Censoring) which is relatively simpler and faster than the traditional calculation ways for estimating parameters. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an age-related reliability index.