• Title/Summary/Keyword: Wald's test

Search Result 20, Processing Time 0.019 seconds

News Impact Curve and Test for Asymmetric Volatility

  • Park, J.A.;Choi, M.S.;Kim, K.K.;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.697-704
    • /
    • 2007
  • It is common in financial time series that volatility(conditional variance) as a measure of risk exhibits asymmetry in such a manner that positive and negative values of return rates of the series tend to provide different contributions to the volatility. We are concerned with asymmetric conditional variances for Korean financial time series especially during the time span of 2000-2001. Notice that these periods suffer from 9-11 disaster in US and collapses of stock prices of dot-companies in Korea. Threshold-ARCH models are considered and a Wald test of asymmetry is suggested. News impact curves are illustrated for graphical representations of leverage effects inherent in various Korean financial time series.

  • PDF

Distribution of a Sum of Weighted Noncentral Chi-Square Variables

  • Heo, Sun-Yeong;Chang, Duk-Joon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.429-440
    • /
    • 2006
  • In statistical computing, it is often for researchers to need the distribution of a weighted sum of noncentral chi-square variables. In this case, it is very limited to know its exact distribution. There are many works to contribute to this topic, e.g. Imhof (1961) and Solomon-Stephens (1977). Imhof's method gives good approximation to the true distribution, but it is not easy to apply even though we consider the development of computer technology Solomon-Stephens's three moment chi-square approximation is relatively easy and accurate to apply. However, they skipped many details, and their simulation is limited to a weighed sum of central chi-square random variables. This paper gives details on Solomon-Stephens's method. We also extend their simulation to the weighted sum of non-central chi-square distribution. We evaluated approximated powers for homogeneous test and compared them with the true powers. Solomon-Stephens's method shows very good approximation for the case.

A Rao-Robson Chi-Square Test for Multivariate Normality Based on the Mahalanobis Distances

  • Park, Cheolyong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.385-392
    • /
    • 2000
  • Many tests for multivariate normality are based on the spherical coordinates of the scaled residuals of multivariate observations. Moore and Stubblebine's (1981) Pearson chi-square test is based on the radii of the scaled residuals, or equivalently the sample Mahalanobis distances of the observations from the sample mean vector. The chi-square statistic does not have a limiting chi-square distribution since the unknown parameters are estimated from ungrouped data. We will derive a simple closed form of the Rao-Robson chi-square test statistic and provide a self-contained proof that it has a limiting chi-square distribution. We then provide an illustrative example of application to a real data with a simulation study to show the accuracy in finite sample of the limiting distribution.

  • PDF

Exact Tests for Variance Ratios in Unbalanced Random Effect Linear Models

  • Huh, Moon-Yul;Li, Seung-Chun
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.457-469
    • /
    • 1996
  • In this paper, we propose a method for an exact test of H : $p_i$ = $r_i$ for all i against K : $p_i$ $\neq$ $r_i$ for some i in an unbalanced random effect linear model, where $p_i$ denotes the ratio of the i-th variance component to the error variance. Then we present a method to test H : $p_i$ $\leq$ r against K : $p_i$> r for some specific i by applying orthogonal projection on the model. We also show that any test statistic that follows an F-distribution on the boundary of the hypotheses is equal to the one given here.

  • PDF

Estimation of Design Rainfall Considering the Change of the Number of Years for Observed Data (관측년수변화를 고려한 설계강우량 산정)

  • Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Hwang, Man-Ha;Lee, Sang-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2005.10a
    • /
    • pp.284-287
    • /
    • 2005
  • The objective of this study is to check into variation trends of design rainfall according to change of the number of years for observed data. To make comparative study of the relation between design rainfall and recorded year, this study was used maximum rainfall for 24-hr consecutive duration at Gangneung, Seoul, Incheon, Chupungnyeong, Pohang, Daegu, Jeonju, Ulsan, Gwangju, Busan, Mokpo and Yeosu rainfall stations. The tests for Independence, Homogeneity and detection of outliers were used Wald-Wolfowitz's test, Mann-Whitney's test and Grubbs and Beck test respectively. To select appopriate distribution, the distribution of genaralized pareto(GPA), generalized extreme value(GEV), generalized logistic(GLO), lognormal and pearson type 3 distribution is judged by L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Design rainfall was estimated by at-site frequency analysis using L-moments and Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution according to change of the number of years for observed data. Through the comparative analysis for design rainfall induced by L-moments and GEV distribution, relationship between design rainfall and recorded year is provided.

  • PDF

The Selection and Decision in R&D and Patents: A Hurdle Negative Binomial Approach (허들음이항모형을 이용한 기업의 혁신선택과 특허성과의 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jaemin
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.449-466
    • /
    • 2014
  • There have been various researches on the relationship between a company's R&D investment and the outcome from innovation. However, these studies failed to effectively analyze the decision-making process followed by companies in relation to knowledge production. Especially, in analyzing the patent of companies, the Poisson model has been commonly used, but its limitations have been pointed out. In recent years, many studies have adopted negative binomial models, but they still pose limitations in analyzing the selection process. This paper proposed a hurdle negative binomial model to effectively reflect the company's decision embedded within patent information and conduct an empirical analysis on a survey of businesses' activities. In particular, the study analyzed the selection process of companies in determining the number of patents. As a result of estimation, the presence of over-dispersion was identified. In addition, the Wald-test confirmed that setting up of hurdles was valid, and there was a difference between the results of hurdle models and those of general negative binomial settings.

The Role of Remittances in Financial Development: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Asymmetric Causality

  • MEHTA, Ahmed Muneeb;QAMRUZZAMAN, Md.;SERFRAZ, Ayesha;ALI, Asad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.139-154
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

Dynamics of Crude Oil and Real Exchange Rate in India

  • ALAM, Md. Shabbir;UDDIN, Mohammed Ahmar;JAMIL, Syed Ahsan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.12
    • /
    • pp.123-129
    • /
    • 2020
  • This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of oil. Using monthly data from January 2001 to May 2020. The study used the real GDP, money supply, short-term interest rate difference between two countries, and inflation apart from the crude oil prices per barrel as the factors that help define the exchange rate. The analysis, through cointegration and vector error correction method (VECM), suggests long and short-run causality amid prices of oil and the rate of exchange fluctuations. Oil prices are found to be negatively related to the exchange rate in the long term but positively related in the short term. The result of the Wald test also indicates the short-run causation from the short-term interest rate and the prices of crude oil towards the exchange rate. The present study shows that oil prices are evidence of the existence of short-term and long-term driving associations with short-term interest rates and exchange rates.

Updated confidence intervals for the COVID-19 antibody retention rate in the Korean population

  • Kamruzzaman, Md.;Apio, Catherine;Park, Taesung
    • Genomics & Informatics
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.45.1-45.5
    • /
    • 2020
  • With the ongoing rise of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic across the globe, interests in COVID-19 antibody testing, also known as a serology test has grown, as a way to measure how far the infection has spread in the population and to identify individuals who may be immune. Recently, many countries reported their population based antibody titer study results. South Korea recently reported their third antibody formation rate, where it divided the study between the general population and the young male youths in their early twenties. As previously stated, these simple point estimates may be misinterpreted without proper estimation of standard error and confidence intervals. In this article, we provide an updated 95% confidence intervals for COVID-19 antibody formation rate for the Korean population using asymptotic, exact and Bayesian statistical estimation methods. As before, we found that the Wald method gives the narrowest interval among all asymptotic methods whereas mid p-value gives the narrowest among all exact methods and Jeffrey's method gives the narrowest from Bayesian method. The most conservative 95% confidence interval estimation shows that as of 00:00 November 23, 2020, at least 69,524 people were infected but not confirmed. It also shows that more positive cases were found among the young male in their twenties (0.22%), three times that of the general public (0.051%). This thereby calls for the quarantine authorities' need to strengthen quarantine managements for the early twenties in order to find the hidden infected people in the population.

Temperature distribution in a full-scale steel framed building subject to a natural fire

  • Wald, Frantisek;Chladna, Magdalena;Moore, David;Santiago, Aldina;Lennon, Tom
    • Steel and Composite Structures
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.159-182
    • /
    • 2006
  • Current fire design codes for determining the temperature within the structural elements that form part of a complete building are based on isolated member tests subjected to the standard fire. However, the standard time-temperature response bears little relation to real fires and doesn't include the effects of differing ventilation conditions or the influence of the thermal properties of compartment linings. The degree to which temperature uniformity is present in real compartments is not addressed and direct flame impingement may also have an influence, which is not considered. It is clear that the complex thermal environmental that occurs within a real building subject to a natural fire can only be addressed using realistic full-scale tests. To study global structural and thermal behaviour, a research project was conducted on the eight storey steel frame building at the Building Research Establishment's Cardington laboratory. The fire compartment was 11 m long by 7 m wide. A fire load of $40kg/m^2$ was applied together with 100% of the permanent actions and variable permanent actions and 56% of live actions. This paper summarises the experimental programme and presents the time-temperature development in the fire compartment and in the main supporting structural elements. Comparisons are also made between the test results and the temperatures predicted by the structural fire Eurocodes.