• 전기학회논문지
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• 제66권3호
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• pp.493-499
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• 2017

This paper proposes a combined very-short-term and short-term multi-variate time-series model for 24 hour load forecasting. First, the best model for very-short-term and short-term load forecasting is selected by considering the least error value, and then they are combined by the optimal forecasting time. The actual load data of industry complex is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. As a result the load forecasting accuracy of the combined model has increased more than a single model for 24 hour load forecasting.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.1419-1424
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• 2018

Very short-term electric load forecasting is essential for real-time power system operation. In this paper, a very short-term electric load forecasting technique applying the Kalman filter algorithm is proposed. In order to apply the Kalman filter algorithm to electric load forecasting, an electrical load forecasting algorithm is defined as an observation model and a state space model in a time domain. In addition, in order to precisely reflect the noise characteristics of the Kalman filter algorithm, the optimal error covariance matrixes Q and R are selected from several experiments. The proposed algorithm is expected to contribute to stable real-time power system operation by providing a precise electric load forecasting result in the next six hours.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권12호
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• pp.1657-1660
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• 2013

Short-term load forecasting for Chusok and New Year's consecutive holidays is very difficult, due to the irregular characteristics compared with ordinary weekdays and insufficient holidays historical data. During consecutive holidays of New Year and Chusok, most of industries reduce their operation rates and their electrical load levels. The correlation between businesses' operation rates and their loads during consecutive holidays of New Year and Chusok is analysed and short-term load forecasting algorithm for consecutive holidays considering businesses' operation rates of industries is proposed. Test results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of short-term load forecasting over fuzzy linear regression method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권10호
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• pp.3878-3887
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• 2022

For the future energy-mix policy for carbon neutrality, demand for the capability of load-follow operation has emerged in nuclear power plants in order to accommodate the intermittency of renewable energy. The short-term decay heat analysis is also required to evaluate the decay heat level varied by the power level change during the load-follow operation, which is a very important parameter in terms of short-term decay heat removal during a grace time. In this study, the short-term decay heat level for 10 days after the shutdown was evaluated for both seasonal and daily load-follow cases. Additionally, the nuclide-wise contribution to the accumulated decay heat for 10 days was analyzed for further understanding of the short-term decay heat behavior. The result showed that in the seasonal case, the decay heat level was mainly determined by the power level right before the shutdown and the amount of each nuclide was varied with the power variation due to the long variation interval of 90 days. Whereas, in the daily case, the decay heat level was strongly impacted by the average power level during operation and meaningful mass variations for those nuclides were not observed due to the short variation interval of 0.5 days.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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• 제63권2호
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• pp.56-62
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• 2020

Background: Red blood cell (RBC) transfusion improves cardiorespiratory status of preterm infants by increasing circulating hemoglobin, improving tissue oxygenation, and reducing cardiac output. However, RBC transfusion itself has also been suggested to negatively affect short-term outcomes such as intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in premature infants. Purpose: This study aimed to analyze the relationship between RBC transfusion and short-term outcomes in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants (birth weight, <1,500 g). Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of VLBW infants admitted to the Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital between October 2010 and December 2017. Infants who died during hospitalization were excluded. The infants were divided into 2 groups according to RBC transfusion status. We investigated the relationship between RBC transfusion and short-term outcomes including BPD, ROP, NEC, and IVH. Results: Of the 250 enrolled VLBW infants, 109 (43.6%) underwent transfusion. Univariate analysis revealed that all short-term outcomes except early-onset sepsis and patent ductus arteriosus were associated with RBC transfusion. In multivariate analysis adjusted for gestational age, birth weight and Apgar score at 1 minute, RBC transfusion was significantly correlated with BPD (odds ratio [OR], 5.42; P<0.001) and NEC (OR, 3.40; P= 0.009). Conclusion: RBC transfusion is significantly associated with adverse clinical outcomes such as NEC and BPD in VLBW infants. Careful consideration of the patient's clinical condition and appropriate guidelines is required before administration of RBC transfusions.

• 가정과삶의질연구
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.107-118
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• 1993

A dimension of well-being economic security was analyzed and compared with economic adequacy. Again it was tested whether two indicators of economic security(short-term vs. long-term) yield same distribution across all household groups. Economic Security was defined as the household ability to sustain a given level of consumption in the case of economic emergency; specifically loss of income. Measure of 8 different kinds of economic security were constructed from household net worth including and excluding home equity. Data were taken from the 1988 U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and 2148 households were selected to test hypotheses concerning the economic security of American households Empirical results showed a very low level of economic security in general. The first hypothesis that distribution of economic adequacy and economic security are same across all population groups was rejected. On the average security measure rather than adequacy measure was favor to white female-headed households and households who have old and highly educated house-holder. The second hypothesis that the indicators of long-term and short-term economic security yield the same results across all household was not rejected. In general the level of economic security was relatively higher when long-term indicator was used than short-term indicator was however the direction and relative size of effect of income and each control variable was almost same.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.2177-2186
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• 2017

The goal of this paper is to provide the specific forecasting steps and to explain how to design the forecasting architecture and training data sets to forecast very short-term wind power when the numerical weather prediction (NWP) is unavailable, and when the sampling periods of the wind power and training data are different. We forecast the very short-term wind power every 15 minutes starting two hours after receiving the most recent measurements up to 40 hours for a total of 38 hours, without using the NWP data but using the historical weather data. Generally, the NWP works as a predictor and can be converted to wind power forecasts through machine learning-based forecasting algorithms. Without the NWP, we can still build the predictor by shifting the historical weather data and apply the machine learning-based algorithms to the shifted weather data. In this process, the sampling intervals of the weather and wind power data are unified. To verify our approaches, we participated in the 2017 wind power forecasting competition held by the European Energy Market conference and ranked sixth. We have shown that the wind power can be accurately forecasted through the data shifting although the NWP is unavailable.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.409-423
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 기상레이더 자료를 이용하여 도시하천 유역을 대상으로 초단기 강우예측 및 홍수예측을 실시하였다. 초단기 강우예측 결과 선행시간이 증가함에 따라 관측 자료와의 상관계수가 감소하며, 평균제곱근오차는 증가하여 정확도가 감소하였으나, 선행시간 60분까지 상관계수가 0.5이상 유지되는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 또한 강우예측 자료 적용에 의한 도시유출 분석결과, 선행시간 증가에 따른 첨두유량과 유출체적의 감소가 발생하였으나, 첨두시간은 비교적 일치하는 것으로 분석되었다. 레이더 예측 강우 적용을 통한 도시유출 분석결과, 관측 자료와의 오차가 발생하나 이는 여러 가지 외부적인 요인으로 판단되며, 추후 강수 에코의 급격한 생성과 소멸현상 모의, 국지성 강우 예측 성능 향상 등 지속적인 알고리즘 개선과 강우-유출 모형 매개변수 검 보정이 필요할 것으로 사료된다. 본 연구의 결과는 도시하천 유역뿐만 아니라 관측이 어려운 미계측 지역의 수문자료 확보 및 실시간 홍수 예 경보시스템 구축에 확장이 가능하며, 다양한 관측자료 기반 Multi-Sensor 초단기 강우예측 기반기술로의 활용이 가능하다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.241-254
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• 2007

This paper propose a new short-term interest rate model having a different nonlinear drift function and the same diffusion coefficient with Chan et al. (1992) model. The fractional polynomial power of the drift function in our model is linked to the local volatility elasticity of the diffusion coefficient. While the nonlinear drift function estimated by $A\"{\i}t$-Sahalia (1996a) and others has a feature that higher interest rates tend to revert downward and low rates upward, the drift function estimated by our nonlinear model shows that higher interest rate mean-reverts strongly, but, medium rates has almost zero drift and low rates has a very small drift. This characteristic coincides the empirical result based on the nonparametric methodology by Stanton (1997) and the implication by the scatter plot of the short rate data.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.96-102
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• 2012

The current establishment of car engineering plastic piping polyethylene (PE) tube used as bonding state or part of the health or safety of fusion is very important. A part of these fusion methods to determine the soundness of the short-term trials and long-term tests can be largely classified. Typical tests included short-term strength, tensile strength, impact strength, compressive strength, resiliency and compression. Polyethylene (PE) pipes installed in the domestic terms of overall penetration rate of 45% has been used. However, polyethylene (PE) pipes have reliability problems, and these occurs mostly in part by defective welding. Therefore, the test is necessary for safety. Non-destructive methods (ultrasonic testing) are difficult to be used. Therefore, Polyethylene (PE) pipe are used. Fusion of thses materilas is necessary in these field however, its technical, and basic research has not been studied well. In this research, short-term strength of welding parts, its tensile strength, hardness, fatigue, and microstructure have been analyzed to find the optimum process conditions to improve mechanical properties.