Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5370/KIEE.2017.66.3.493

24 hour Load Forecasting using Combined Very-short-term and Short-term Multi-Variable Time-Series Model  

Lee, WonJun (Dept. of Energy System Research, Ajou University)
Lee, Munsu (Dept. of Energy Science, Sungkyunkwan University)
Kang, Byung-O (Dept. of Electric Engineering, Dong-a University)
Jung, Jaesung (Dept. of Energy System Research, Ajou University)
Publication Information
The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers / v.66, no.3, 2017 , pp. 493-499 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper proposes a combined very-short-term and short-term multi-variate time-series model for 24 hour load forecasting. First, the best model for very-short-term and short-term load forecasting is selected by considering the least error value, and then they are combined by the optimal forecasting time. The actual load data of industry complex is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. As a result the load forecasting accuracy of the combined model has increased more than a single model for 24 hour load forecasting.
Keywords
24 hour load forecasting; Short-term load forecasting; Very-short-term load forecasting; Multi-variate time-series model; Combined multi-variate time-series model;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 Korea Meterological Administration homepage, http://web.kma.go.kr/images/weather/lifenindustry/dongnaeforecast_rss.pdf
2 A. Kaur, L. Nonnenmacher, C. F.M. Coimbra, "Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids", Energy, Volume 114, Pages 1073-1084, 2016   DOI
3 Korea Energy Economics Institute, "Analysis of Demand Management Effect of Energy Storage System (ESS)", KEEI Basic research report 14-23, 2014.
4 L. Hernandez, C. Baladron, JM. Aguiar, B. Carro, AJ. Sanchez-Esguevillas, J. Lloret, J. Massana. "A survey on electric power demand forecasting: future trends in smart grids, microgrids and smart buildings". IEEE Commun. Surv. Tutor, 2014; 16(3):1460-1495.   DOI
5 KPX, "Study on introduction of BESS for activation of Smart Grid and stability of power supply and demand", 2013.
6 KPX, "Development of Real-Time Load Forecasting Technique and A Study on On-Line Load Forecasting Scheme", 2015. 2.
7 Kyung-Hun Lee, Yunho Lee, Jin-O Kim, Hyo-Sang Lee, "Short-Term Load Forecasting using Multiple Time-Series Model Including Dummy Variable", The Transaction of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A, 52A(8), pp. 450-456, 2003
8 Kyung-Hun Lee, Yunho Lee, Jin-O Kim, Hyo-Sang Lee. "Short-Term Load Forecasting using Multiple Time-Series Model." presented for The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineer conference, (2001.5): 230-232.
9 Kyung-Hun Lee, Yunho Lee, Jin-O Kim. "TAR(Threshold Autoregressive) Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Nonlinearity of Temperature and Load." THE TRANSACTION OF THE KOREAN INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS A, 50A.9 (2001.9): 399-405
10 R. Cottet and M. Smith. "Bayesian modeling and forecasting of intraday electricity load", Journal of the American Statistical Association 98 (464): 839-49. 2003.   DOI