• Title/Summary/Keyword: Variance inflation model.

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An Influential Relationship between Urban Culture and Community Spirit (도시문화와 공동체 의식의 영향 관계)

  • Kim, Dong-Yoon
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2013
  • With regard to urban culture this study aims to essential understanding and systematic approach to the culture. The "2012 Seoul Survey" report has been used to find out causality among the related variables. In the first place 'satisfaction of cultural condition' was operationally selected as a dependent variable for regression. For the purpose of controlling the third factors for ceteris paribus effect correlation analysis was previously done between the dependent variable and all other variables respectively, which resulted in two groups of variables: group (1) - 2 variables of very significant correlations(p-value<0.01) and (2) - the other 6 variables of significant correlations(p-value<0.05). Then hierarchical regression was adopted to these 2 groups to analyse statistical significance of independent variables, and multicollinearity(VIF; variance inflation factor). Additionally to OLS robust and bootstrapping regressions were done to confirm the validity of this model specification. At last a regression model specified by group (1) as independent variables(they are 'community spirit caring for women, the disabled, the poor and the old,' 'satisfaction of bicycle riding condition' shows that the variables have statistically significant and substantially strong effect on 'satisfaction of cultural condition.' This finding implies the following understanding; (1) urban festivals are regarded as the main of the urban culture as of now and this results from the low level of today's culture, (2) culture is telling and hearing stories but the influential relationship between urban culture and community spirit on the weak is negative, which says that the cultural perception among citizen is somewhat selfish and far from the essential understanding of the urban culture. In spite of restrictive external validity this finding can be used as a direction for promoting culture and a basis for related policy choice in cities.

Assessment of Evaporation Rates from Litter of Duck House (오리사 바닥재의 수분 증발량 평가)

  • Lee, Sang-Yeon;Lee, In-Bok;Kim, Rack-Woo;Yeo, Uk-Hyeon;Decano, Cristina;Kim, Jun-gyu;Choi, Young-Bae;Park, You-Me;Jeong, Hyo-Hyeog
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.5
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2019
  • The domestic duck industry is the sixth-largest among the livestock industries. However, 34.3% of duck houses were the duck houses arbitrarily converted from plastic greenhouses. This type of duck house was difficult to properly manage internal air temperature and humidity environment. Humidity environment inside duck houses is an important factor that directly affects the productivity and disease occurrence of the duck. Although the humidity environments of litters (bedding materials) affect directly the inside environment of duck houses, there are only few studies related to humidity environment of litters. In this study, evaporation rates from litters were evaluated according to air temperature, relative humidity, water contents of litters, and wind speed. The experimental chamber was made to measure evaporation rates from litters. Temperature and humidity controlled chamber was utilized during the conduct of the laboratory experiments. Using the measured data, a multi linear regression analysis was carried out to derive the calculation formula of evaporation rates from litters. In order to improve the accuracy of the multi linear regression model, the partial vapor pressure directly related to evaporation was also considered. Variance inflation factors of air temperature, relative humidity, partial vapor pressure, water contents of litters, and wind speed were calculated to identify multicollinearity problem. The Multiple $R^2$ and adjusted-$R^2$ of regression model were calculated at 0.76 and 0.71, respectively. Therefore, the regression models were developed in this study can be used to estimate evaporation rates from the litter of duck houses.

The Economic Growth of Korea Since 1990 : Contributing Factors from Demand and Supply Sides (1990년대 이후 한국경제의 성장: 수요 및 공급 측 요인의 문제)

  • Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.169-206
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    • 2009
  • This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

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Statistical review and explanation for Lanchester model (란체스터 모형에 대한 통계적 고찰과 해석)

  • Yoo, Byung Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with the problem of estimating the log-transformed linear regression model to fit actual battle data from the Ardennes Campaign of World War II into the Lanchester model. The problem of determining a global solution for parameters and multicollinearity problems are identified and modified by examining the results of previous studies on data. The least squares method requires attention because a local solution can be found rather than a global solution if considering a specific constraint or a limited candidate group. The method of exploring this multicollinearity problem can be confirmed by a statistic known as a variance inflation factor. Therefore, the Lanchester model is simplified to avoid these problems, and the combat power attrition rate model was proposed which is statistically significant and easy to explain. When fitting the model, the dependence problem between the data has occurred due to autocorrelation. Matters that might be underestimated or overestimated were resolved by the Cochrane-Orcutt method as well as guaranteeing independence and normality.

A Causality between Cultural Satisfaction and Social Trust in Cities (도시인의 문화환경 만족과 사회적 신뢰의 인과성)

  • Kim, Dong-Yoon
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2012
  • With regard to the culture in cities this study aims to essential understanding and systematic approach to the culture. The "2011 Seoul Survey"report has been used to find out causality among the related variables. In the first place 'satisfaction of cultural condition' was operationally selected as a dependent variable for regression. For the purpose of controlling confounding factors for ceteris paribus effect correlation analysis was done between the dependent variable and all other variables respectively, which resulted in two groups of variables: group (1) - 6 variables of very significant correlations(p-value<0.01) and (2) - the other 6 variables of significant correlations(p-value<0.05). Then hierarchical regression was adopted to these 2 groups to analyse $R^2$ increment, statistical significance of independent variables, and multicollinearity(VIF; variance inflation factor). At last a regression model specified by group (1) as independent variables(they are 'social trust', 'satisfaction of walking condition', 'happiness index', 'preparation against old age', 'satisfaction of traffic condition' and 'hours for internet') shows that only 'social trust' variable has statistically significant and substantially strong effect on 'satisfaction of cultural condition.' This finding should be accepted on the following understanding; (1) urban culture has a collective attribute formed between people and society, (2) culture is somewhat telling and hearing stories and the confidence between tellers and hearers is essential in the mutual response and (3) stimulus is received by relationship in company with sense, emotion, thinking and action. In spite of restrictive external validity this finding can be used as a direction for promoting culture and a basis for related policy choice in cities.

Estimation of Volatility among the Stock Markets in ASIA using MRS-GARCH model (MRS-GARCH를 이용한 아시아 주식시장 간의 변동성 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.181-199
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to examine whether or not the volatility of the 1997~1998 Asian crisis still affects the monthly stock returns of Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China from 1980 to 2018. This study investigated whether the volatility has already fallen to pre-crisis levels. To illustrate the possible structural changes in the unconditioned variance due to the Asian financial crisis, we use the MRS-GARCH model, which is a regime switching model. The main results of this study were as follows: First, the stock return of each country was weak in the high volatility regime except Japan resulted by the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 1998 until March 2018, and the Asian stock market has not yet calmed down except for the global financial crisis period of 2007 and 2008. Second, the conditional volatility has been significantly and persistently decreased and eliminated after the Asian financial crisis. Thus, we could be judged that the Asian stock market was not fully recovered(stable) due to the Asian crisis including the capital liberalization high inflation, worsening current account deficit, overseas low interest rates and expansion of credit growth in 1997 and 1998, but the Asian stock market was largely settled down, except for the 2007 and 2008 in Global financial crises. Considering the similarity between the Asian stock markets and the similar correlation of the regime switching, it may be worthwhile to analyze the MRS-GARCH model.

Benefit Evaluation for Traffic Transfer System using Contingent Valuation Method in Tourist Resort (CVM을 이용한 관광지 환승 교통시스템의 편익 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Byeong-Ju;Seo, Im-Gi;NamGung, Mun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2007
  • According to the rapid economic growth and the escalation of recreational tourism activities due to the change of job and working patterns, currently various traffic problems often occur in tourist areas. As tourist traffic, contrary to general traffic, is not regional but rather from outside the area of interest, it is hard to grasp the traffic situation surrounding the tourist area. Furthermore, since the traffic is concentrated during a limited tourist season, it is difficult to examine and solve the problem. In this study, in order to test the feasibility of introducing a traffic transfer system to reduce congestion in tourist areas, the authors considered the differences in traffic congestion between typical and tourist seasons and designed a willingness to pay model. The willingness to pay amount for a shuttle bus fare is assumed as 1,430 Won and 1,650 Won is assumed for a transfer parking charge. These amounts were slightly above the current bus fare in the study area, but many people thought that the introduction of a traffic transfer system would help to relieve the traffic congestion approaching the tourist area and to develop tourism resources. As the willingness to pay appeared high from the persons used in this study, it was indirectly confirmed that the introduction of a traffic transfer system would be a step in the right direction.

Impacts of Relative Advantage of Fast Food Restaurant's O2O Service and Consumer Involvement on Consumer Engagement, and Store Loyalty: Focused on MZ Generationsin Untact Consumption Era

  • LEE, Young-Eun;LEE, Yong-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: Fast food franchise companies are trying a variety of innovative services to increase their competitiveness in response to changes in population composition in the fast food market and rapid changes in consumption trends due to technological development. From this point of view, franchise companies that have focused on offline store operations are providing O2O (offline to online) service as a core service for customer convenience. This new attempt is a strategy to increase loyalty by applying an interaction method based on understanding the characteristics of new generation consumers. However, existing studies are focused on the relationship between O2O service and acceptance, so very little is known about how O2O service affects customer loyalty. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of customer involvement and relative advantages of fast food O2O service on customer brand engagement (cognitive and affective engagement) and store loyalty for MZ(Millennials - Z) generations. Research design, data, and methodology: In order to achieve the purposes of this research, several hypotheses were developed. The data were collected from 247 questionnaires in their 16-30s and were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and SmartPLS 3.0 program. Measurement model analysis was carried out to assess convergent and discriminant validity. Also, common method bias was tested using the values of VIF (variance inflation factor). The hypotheses was tested using structural equation modeling. Result: First, involvement has a positive effect on cognitive and affective engagement. Second, relative advantages have has a positive effect on cognitive and affective engagement. Third, cognitive influences affective engagement. Finally, both cognitive and affective engagement affect store loyalty, but affective engagement has a stronger effect on store loyalty than cognitive engagement. Conclusions: In the process of consumer-brand interaction, it was confirmed that store loyalty was influenced by cognitive and affective engagement sequentially. However, the results show that affective engagement has a relatively stronger on store loyalty than cognitive engagement. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an O2O service strategy to maintain long-term loyal customers by inducing cognitive participation with high-involved consumer, as well as affective interaction, in order to obtain new customers and increase customer loyalty.

Impacts of Perceived Innovativeness of Convenience Store on Consumer Brand Engagement and Store Loyalty (편의점의 혁신성이 인지적 인게지먼트와 정서적 인게이지먼트, 그리고 점포충성도에 미치는 영향)

  • LEE, Young-Eun;LEE, Yong-Ki
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: With the rapid changes in the technical development and the trend of consumption trend, the convenience store industry is facing an unprecedented competitive situation in the consumption environment where the boundary between online and offline is broken due to the stagnation of offline distribution channels and the spread of online shopping. The biggest innovation strategy of the major convenience store brands in recent years are introducing the O2O (Online to Offline) platform and presenting new products and services beyond the boundaries of online and offline to transform themselves into Omni Channel stores. The study is designed to analyze the effect of innovativeness of convenience store as a stimulus in O2O platform which customers perceive on store loyalty, the final response to external stimuli, through customer engagement with convenience store brands. Specifically, the innovativeness of convenience stores was divided into types of core activities in corporate marketing and focused on innovations in services, products(proposals), promotions and experiences. Research design, data, and methodology: Various hypotheses have been developed to achieve this research purpose. The data were collected from 1,128 questionnaires the age between 15 and 60 who had experience using retail store apps and delivery apps and were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and SmartPLS 3.3.7 program. Measurement model analysis was carried out to assess convergent and discriminant validity. Also, common method bias was tested using the values of VIF (variance inflation factor). The hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling with SmartPLS 3.3.7 program. Results: First, service innovation has a positive effect on cognitive engagement. Second, product, promotion and experience innovation have a positive effect on cognitive and affective engagement. Third, cognitive influences affective engagement. Finally, both cognitive and affective engagement affect store loyalty, but affective engagement has a stronger effect on store loyalty than cognitive engagement. Conclusions: All four types of innovation and cognitive engagement have a positive effect on emotional engagement, which has a stronger effect on store loyalty than cognitive engagement. Thus, while innovation can build loyalty through emotional engagement, innovation strategies must be designed and pursued with caution in terms of impact through cognitive engagement may not achieve the planned goals.

The Relations between Financial Constraints and Dividend Smoothing of Innovative Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (혁신형 중소기업의 재무적 제약과 배당스무딩간의 관계)

  • Shin, Min-Shik;Kim, Soo-Eun
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.67-93
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to explore the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs) listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange. The innovative SMEs is defined as the firms with high level of R&D intensity which is measured by (R&D investment/total sales) ratio, according to Chauvin and Hirschey (1993). The R&D investment plays an important role as the innovative driver that can increase the future growth opportunity and profitability of the firms. Therefore, the R&D investment have large, positive, and consistent influences on the market value of the firm. In this point of view, we expect that the innovative SMEs can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. And also, we expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Aivazian et al.(2006) exert that the financial unconstrained firms with the high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms. We collect the sample firms among the total SMEs listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange during the periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. The total number of firm-year observations of the total sample firms throughout the entire period is 5,544, the number of firm-year observations of the dividend firms is 2,919, and the number of firm-year observations of the non-dividend firms is 2,625. About 53%(or 2,919) of these total 5,544 observations involve firms that make a dividend payment. The dividend firms are divided into two groups according to the R&D intensity, such as the innovative SMEs with larger than median of R&D intensity and the noninnovative SMEs with smaller than median of R&D intensity. The number of firm-year observations of the innovative SMEs is 1,506, and the number of firm-year observations of the noninnovative SMEs is 1,413. Furthermore, the innovative SMEs are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints, such as the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms. The number of firm-year observations of the former is 894, and the number of firm-year observations of the latter is 612. Although all available firm-year observations of the dividend firms are collected, deletions are made in the case of financial industries such as banks, securities company, insurance company, and other financial services company, because their capital structure and business style are widely different from the general manufacturing firms. The stock repurchase was involved in dividend payment because Grullon and Michaely (2002) examined the substitution hypothesis between dividends and stock repurchases. However, our data structure is an unbalanced panel data since there is no requirement that the firm-year observations data are all available for each firms during the entire periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. We firstly estimate the classic Lintner(1956) dividend adjustment model, where the decision to smooth dividend or to adopt a residual dividend policy depends on financial constraints measured by market accessibility. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between current payout rato and target payout ratio each year. In the Lintner model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), and independent variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt). We hypothesized that firms adjust partially the gap between the current dividend per share(DPSt) and the target payout ratio(Ω) each year, when the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) deviate from the target payout ratio(Ω). We secondly estimate the expansion model that extend the Lintner model by including the determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory. In the expansion model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), explanatory variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt), and control variables are the current capital expenditure ratio(CEAt), the current leverage ratio(LEVt), the current operating return on assets(ROAt), the current business risk(RISKt), the current trading volume turnover ratio(TURNt), and the current dividend premium(DPREMt). In these control variables, CEAt, LEVt, and ROAt are the determinants suggested by the residual dividend theory and the agency theory, ROAt and RISKt are the determinants suggested by the dividend signaling theory, TURNt is the determinant suggested by the transactions cost theory, and DPREMt is the determinant suggested by the catering theory. Furthermore, we thirdly estimate the Lintner model and the expansion model by using the panel data of the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms, that are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints. We expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, because the former can finance more easily the investment funds through the market accessibility than the latter. We analyzed descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and median to delete the outliers from the panel data, conducted one way analysis of variance to check up the industry-specfic effects, and conducted difference test of firms characteristic variables between innovative SMEs and noninnovative SMEs as well as difference test of firms characteristic variables between financial unconstrained firms and financial constrained firms. We also conducted the correlation analysis and the variance inflation factors analysis to detect any multicollinearity among the independent variables. Both of the correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factors are roughly low to the extent that may be ignored the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Furthermore, we estimate both of the Lintner model and the expansion model using the panel regression analysis. We firstly test the time-specific effects and the firm-specific effects may be involved in our panel data through the Lagrange multiplier test that was proposed by Breusch and Pagan(1980), and secondly conduct Hausman test to prove that fixed effect model is fitter with our panel data than the random effect model. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. The determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory explain significantly the dividend policy of the innovative SMEs. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between the current payout ratio and the target payout ratio each year. In the core variables of Lintner model, the past dividend per share has more effects to dividend smoothing than the current earnings per share. These results suggest that the innovative SMEs maintain stable and long run dividend policy which sustains the past dividend per share level without corporate special reasons. The main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs is faster than that of the noninnovative SMEs. This means that the innovative SMEs with high level of R&D intensity can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. The other main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the financial unconstrained SMEs is faster than that of the financial constrained SMEs. This means that the financial unconstrained firms with high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Futhermore, the other additional results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs classified by the Small and Medium Business Administration is faster than that of the unclassified SMEs. They are linked with various financial policies and services such as credit guaranteed service, policy fund for SMEs, venture investment fund, insurance program, and so on. In conclusion, the past dividend per share and the current earnings per share suggested by the Lintner model explain mainly dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs, and also the financial constraints explain partially. Therefore, if managers can properly understand of the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative SMEs, they can maintain stable and long run dividend policy of the innovative SMEs through dividend smoothing. These are encouraging results for Korea government, that is, the Small and Medium Business Administration as it has implemented many policies to commit to the innovative SMEs. This paper may have a few limitations because it may be only early study about the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of the innovative SMEs. Specifically, this paper may not adequately capture all of the subtle features of the innovative SMEs and the financial unconstrained SMEs. Therefore, we think that it is necessary to expand sample firms and control variables, and use more elaborate analysis methods in the future studies.