• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.91-103
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• 2019

An accurate prediction on near-future cash flows plays an important role for a company to attenuate the shortage risk of cash flow by preparing a plan for future investment in advance. Unfortunately, there exists a high level of uncertainty in the types of transactions that occur in the form of receivables in inter-company transactions, unlike other types of transactions, thereby making the prediction of cash flows difficult. In this study, we analyze the trend of cash flow related to account receivables that may arise between firms, by using a stochastic approach. In particular, we utilize Variable Order Markov (VOM) model to predict how future cash flows will change based on cash flow history. As a result of this study, we show that the average accuracy of the VOM model increases about 12.5% or more compared with that of other existing techniques.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.777-786
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• 2001

The autoregressive models have been used to describe a wade variety of time series. Then the problem of determining the order in the times series model is very important in data analysis. We consider the Bayesian approach for finding the order of autoregressive(AR) error models using the latent variable which is motivated by Tanner and Wong(1987). The latent variables are combined with the coefficient parameters and the sequential steps are proposed to set up the prior of the latent variables. Markov chain Monte Carlo method(Gibbs sampler and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm) is used in order to overcome the difficulties of Bayesian computations. Three examples including AR(3) error model are presented to illustrate our proposed methodology.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.528-538
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• 2003

A SCCRS (Speech and Character Combined Recognition System) is developed for working on mobile devices such as PDA (Personal Digital Assistants). In SCCRS, the feature extraction is separately carried out for speech and for hand-written character, but the recognition is performed in a common engine. The recognition engine employs essentially CHMM (Continuous Hidden Markov Model), which consists of variable parameter topology in order to minimize the number of model parameters and to reduce recognition time. For generating contort independent variable parameter model, we propose the SSMS(Successive State and Mixture Splitting), which gives appropriate numbers of mixture and of states through splitting in mixture domain and in time domain. The recognition results show that the proposed SSMS method can reduce the total number of GOPDD (Gaussian Output Probability Density Distribution) up to 40.0% compared to the conventional method with fixed parameter model, at the same recognition performance in speech recognition system.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.41-49
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• 2014

In this paper, we consider a method to access the number of aircraft requirement which is a strategic variable in national security. This problem becomes more important considering the F-X and KF-X project in ROKAF. Traditionally, ATO(Air Tasking Order) and fighting power index have been used to evaluate the number of aircrafts required in ROKAF. However, those methods considers static aspect of aircraft requirement. This paper deals with a model to accommodate dynamic feature of aircraft requirement using absorbing Markov chain. In conclusion, we suggest a dynamic model to evaluate the number of aircrafts required with key decision variables such as destroying rate, failure rate and repair rate.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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• v.31B no.8
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• pp.11-19
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• 1994

The matching probability P(ο/$\lambda$), of the signal sequence(ο) observed for a finite time interval with a HMM (Hidden Markov Model $\lambda$) indicates the probability that signal comes from the given model. By utilizing the fact that the probability represents matching score of the observed signal with the model we can recognize an unknown signal pattern by comparing the magnitudes of the matching probabilities with respect to the known models. Because the algorithm however uses floating point variables during the computing process hardware implementation of the algorithm requires floating point units. This paper proposes an integer algorithm which uses positive integer numbers rather than float point ones to compute the matching probability so that we can economically realize the algorithm into hardware. The algorithm makes the model parameters integer numbers by multiplying positive constants and prevents from divergence of data through the normalization of variables at each step. The final equation of matching probability is composed of constant terms and a variable term which contains logarithm operations. A scheme to make the log conversion table smaller is also presented. To analyze the qualitive characteristics of the proposed algorithm we attatch simulation result performed on two groups of 10 hypothetic models respectively and inspect the statistical properties with repect to the model order the magnitude of scaling constants and the effect of the observation length.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.126-135
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• 2003

A basic assumption in standard applications of control charts is that the observations are statistically independent. However, this assumption is often violated from processes in many industries. The presence of autocorrelation has a serious impact on the performance of control charts, causing a dramatic increase in the frequency of false alarms. This paper considers a process in which the observations can be modeled as a first order autoregressive(AR(1)) process, and develops (equation omitted) charts with the variable sample size(VSS) scheme for monitoring the mean of this process.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.745-758
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• 2005

This paper presents a statistical analysis on the position-specific distributions of amino acid residues in transmembrane proteins. A hidden Markov model segments membrane proteins to produce segmented regions of homogeneous statistical property from variable-length amino acids sequences. These segmented residues are analyzed by using chi-square statistic and relative-entropy in order to find position-specific amino acids. This analysis showed that isoleucine and valine concentrated on the center of membrane-spanning regions, tryptophan, tyrosine and positive residues were found frequently near both ends of membrane.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.73-84
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• 2002

Linear regression models with inequality constraints on the coefficients are frequently used in economic models due to sign or order constraints on the coefficients. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to selecting significant explanatory variables in linear regression models with inequality constraints on the coefficients. Bayesian variable selection requires computation of posterior probability of each candidate model. We propose a method which computes all the necessary posterior model probabilities simultaneously. In specific, we obtain posterior samples form the most general model via Gibbs sampling algorithm (Gelfand and Smith, 1990) and compute the posterior probabilities by using the samples. A real example is given to illustrate the method.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.457-468
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• 2007

This paper proposes an adaptive moving average (A-MA) control chart with variable sampling intervals (VSI) for detecting shifts in the process mean. The basic idea of the VSI A-MA chart is to adjust sampling intervals as well as to accumulate previous samples selectively in order to increase the sensitivity. The VSI A-MA chart employs a threshold limit to determine whether or not to increase sampling rate as well as to accumulate previous samples. If a standardized control statistic falls outside the threshold limit, the next sample is taken with higher sampling rate and is accumulated to calculate the next control statistic. If the control statistic falls within the threshold limit, the next sample is taken with lower sampling rate and only the sample is used to get the control statistic. The VSI A-MA chart produces an 'out-of-control' signal either when any control statistic falls outside the control limit or when L-consecutive control statistics fall outside the threshold limit. The control length L is introduced to prevent small mean shifts from being undetected for a long period. A Markov chain model is employed to investigate the VSI A-MA sampling process. Formulae related to the steady state average time-to signal (ATS) for an in-control state and out-of-control state are derived in closed forms. A statistical design procedure for the VSI A-MA chart is proposed. Comparative studies show that the proposed VSI A-MA chart is uniformly superior to the adaptive Cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart and to the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) chart, and is comparable to the variable sampling size (VSS) VSI EWMA chart with respect to the ATS performance.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.560-570
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• 2006

This paper proposes a selectively cumulative sum (S-CUSUM) control chart with variable sampling intervals (VSI) for detecting shifts in the process mean. The basic idea of the VSI S-CUSUM chart is to adjust sampling intervals and to accumulate previous samples selectively in order to increase the sensitivity. The VSI S-CUSUM chart employs a threshold limit to determine whether to increase sampling rate as well as to accumulate previous samples or not. If a standardized control statistic falls outside the threshold limit, the next sample is taken with higher sampling rate and is accumulated to calculate the next control statistic. If the control statistic falls within the threshold limit, the next sample is taken with lower sampling rate and only the sample is used to get the control statistic. The VSI S-CUSUM chart produces an 'out-of-control' signal either when any control statistic falls outside the control limit or when L-consecutive control statistics fall outside the threshold limit. The number L is a decision variable and is called a 'control length'. A Markov chain model is employed to describe the VSI S-CUSUM sampling process. Some useful formulae related to the steady state average time-to signal (ATS) for an in-control state and out-of-control state are derived in closed forms. A statistical design procedure for the VSI S-CUSUM chart is proposed. Comparative studies show that the proposed VSI S-CUSUM chart is uniformly superior to the VSI CUSUM chart or to the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) chart with respect to the ATS performance.