• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1079-1089
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• 2018

The majority of existing studies for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments suggest only the uncertainties of each stage, and not the total uncertainty and its propagation in the whole procedure. Therefore, this study has proposed a new method, the Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM), which can quantify uncertainties using the variances of projections (as the UDM is derived from the first-order Taylor series expansion), to allow for a comprehensive quantification of uncertainty at each stage and also to provide the levels of uncertainty propagation, as follows: total uncertainty, the level of uncertainty increase at each stage, and the percentage of uncertainty at each stage. For quantifying uncertainties at each stage as well as the total uncertainty, all the stages - two emission scenarios (ES), three Global Climate Models (GCMs), two downscaling techniques, and two hydrological models - of the climate change assessment for water resources are conducted. The total uncertainty took 5.45, and the ESs had the largest uncertainty (4.45). Additionally, uncertainties are propagated stage by stage because of their gradual increase: 5.45 in total uncertainty consisted of 4.45 in emission scenarios, 0.45 in climate models, 0.27 in downscaling techniques, and 0.28 in hydrological models. These results indicate the projection of future water resources can be very different depending on which emission scenarios are selected. Moreover, using Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM) by Hawkins and Sutton (2009), the major uncertainty contributor (emission scenario: FUM uncertainty 0.52) matched with the results of UDM. Therefore, the UDM proposed by this study can support comprehension and appropriate analysis of the uncertainty surrounding the climate change impact assessment, and make possible a better understanding of the water resources projection for future climate change.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.183-188
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• 2014

In this paper, the propagation effect of power supply uncertainty on the output of class-F power amplifier has been estimated. Also, a 1.9 GHz, 10 watt class-F power amplifier was measured to verify the estimation and to find the optimal biasing point. By approximating the propagation theory of uncertainties, the propagation effect of bias uncertainty was mathmatically calculated. As a result, the DC biases have propagated uncertainties of 15~70 mW. However, at the optimized bias point, the uncertainty in the output power could be dropped less than 15 mW while the output power has dropped by 0.37 dB.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.299-312
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• 2014

An uncertainty propagation methodology based on the Monte Carlo method is applied to PWR nuclear design analysis to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties. The importance of the nuclear data uncertainties for $^{235,238}U$, $^{239}Pu$, and the thermal scattering library for hydrogen in water is analyzed. This uncertainty analysis is compared with the design and acceptance criteria to assure the adequacy of bounding estimates in safety margins.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2003.06a
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• pp.434-437
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• 2003

Evaluation or the patterning accuracy of e-beam lithography machines requires a high precision inspection system that is capable of measuring the true xy-locations of fiducial marks generated by the e-beam machine under test. Fiducial marks are fabricated on a single photo mask over the entire working area in the form of equally spaced two-dimensional grids. In performing the evaluation, the principles of self-calibration enable to determine the deviations of fiducial marks from their nominal xy-locations precisely, not being affected by the motion errors of the inspection system itself. It is. however, the fact that only repeatable motion errors can be eliminated, while random motion errors encountered in probing the locations of fiducial marks are not removed. Even worse, a random error occurring from the measurement of a single mark propagates and affects in determining locations of other marks, which phenomenon in fact limits the ultimate calibration accuracy of e-beam machines. In this paper, we describe an uncertainty analysis that has been made to investigate how random errors affect the final result of self-calibration of e-beam machines when one uses an optical inspection system equipped with high-resolution microscope objectives and a precision xy-stages. The guide of uncertainty analysis recommended by the International Organization for Standardization is faithfully followed along with necessary sensitivity analysis. The uncertainty analysis reveals that among the dominant components of the patterning accuracy of e-beam lithography, the rotationally symmetrical component is most significantly affected by random errors, whose propagation becomes more severe in a cascading manner as the number of fiducial marks increases

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.1043-1050
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• 2018

For an efficient Monte Carlo (MC) burnup analysis, an accurate high-order depletion scheme to consider the nonlinear flux variation in a coarse burnup-step interval is crucial accompanied with an accurate depletion equation solver. In a Seoul National University MC code, McCARD, the high-order depletion schemes of the quadratic depletion method (QDM) and the linear extrapolation/quadratic interpolation (LEQI) method and a depletion equation solver by the Chebyshev rational approximation method (CRAM) have been newly implemented in addition to the existing constant extrapolation/backward extrapolation (CEBE) method using the matrix exponential method (MEM) solver with substeps. In this paper, the quadratic extrapolation/quadratic interpolation (QEQI) method is proposed as a new high-order depletion scheme. In order to examine the effectiveness of the newly-implemented depletion modules in McCARD, four problems in the VERA depletion benchmarks are solved by CEBE/MEM, CEBE/CRAM, LEQI/MEM, QEQI/MEM, and QDM for gadolinium isotopes. From the comparisons, it is shown that the QEQI/MEM predicts ${k_{inf}}^{\prime}s$ most accurately among the test cases. In addition, statistical uncertainty propagation analyses for a VERA pin cell problem are conducted by the sensitivity and uncertainty and the stochastic sampling methods.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.31 no.8
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• pp.107-114
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• 2003

The effect of uncertainties caused by measured parameters, which are propagated to the uncertainty of total-to-total efficiency, are analyzed from a turbine performance test. The degree of reaction is 0.373 at the mean radius on a tested 3-D axial type turbine, and the performance test is conducted at the low pressure and cold temperature status. The uncertainty of turbine inlet and exit total pressure shows the strong propagation effect to the uncertainty of total-to-total efficiency. This means that a high precision pressure measuring system is required to reduce the uncertainty propagated by the pressure. In the uncertainty portion of each measured parameters to the uncertainty of total- to-total efficiency, the uncertainty by torque is the highest and the uncertainty by RPM is the lowest. In case of the total pressure, the effect of the uncertainty by torque is increased with the increasing RPM. The uncertainty of total pressure at the turbine exit is more important than that at the turbine exit.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.165-175
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• 2003

The concept of measurement uncertainty has been recognised for many years since "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement" was published 1993 by ISO. This study firstly propose the mathematical model to evaluate uncertainty considering the dispersion of samples because the mathematical model of a measurement is an important to evaluate uncertainty, and it must contains every quantify which contribute significantly to uncertainty in the measurement result. Secondly the standard uncertainty of the result of a measurement, namely combined standard uncertainty is evaluated using the law of propagation of uncertainty, what is termed in GUM method. In GUM method, a measurand is usually approximated by a linear function of its variables by the transforming its input quantities. Furthermore central limit theorem is applied to the input quantity. However the mathematical model of a measurement is generally not always a linearity function, and a distribution function of input or output quantity is not necessarily normal distribution. Then, in some cases GUM method is not favorable to evaluate a measurement uncertainty. Therefore this study propose a new method and its algorithm which use the Monte-carlo simulation to evaluate a measurement uncertainty in both case of linearity or non-linearity function. function.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.4272-4279
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• 2022

In this study, a cross section stochastic sampling (S.S.) capability is implemented into both the McCARD continuous energy Monte Carlo code and MIG multiple-correlated data sampling code. The ENDF/B-VII.1 covariance data based 30 group cross section sets and the SCALE6 covariance data based 44 group cross section sets are sampled by the MIG code. Through various uncertainty quantification (UQ) benchmark calculations, the McCARD/MIG results are verified to be consistent with the McCARD stand-alone sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) results and the XSUSA S.S. results. UQ analyses for Three Mile Island Unit 1, Peach Bottom Unit 2, and Kozloduy-6 fuel pin problems are conducted to provide the uncertainties of k_eff and microscopic and macroscopic cross sections by the McCARD/MIG code system. Moreover, the SNU S/U formulations for uncertainty propagation in a MC depletion analysis are validated through a comparison with the McCARD/MIG S.S. results for the UAM Exercise I-1b burnup benchmark. It is therefore concluded that the SNU formulation based on the S/U method has the capability to accurately estimate the uncertainty propagation in a MC depletion analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.123-126
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• 2003

The uncertainties generated by measurement parameters are propagated to the uncertainty of total-to-total efficiency on an experiment. The effect of uncertainties’ propagation are analyzed through a turbine performance test. A tested 3-D axial type turbine has a 0.373 degree of reaction at the mean radius and the performance test is conducted at the low pressure and cold temperature status. The uncertainty of turbine inlet and exit total pressure shows the strong propagation effect to the uncertainty of total-to-total efficiency. This means that a high precision pressure measuring system is required to reduce the uncertainty propagated by the pressure. In the uncertainty portion of each measurement parameters to the uncertainty of total-to-total efficiency, the uncertainty by torque is the highest and the uncertainty by RPM is the lowest. In case of the total pressure, the effect of the uncertainty by torque is increased with the increasing RPM. The uncertainty of total pressure at the turbine exit shows more influence to the results than that at the turbine.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.287-295
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• 2020

Group method of data handling (GMDH) is considered one of the earliest deep learning methods. Deep learning gained additional interest in today's applications due to its capability to handle complex and high dimensional problems. In this study, multi-layer GMDH networks are used to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) of nuclear reactor simulations. GMDH is utilized as a surrogate/metamodel to replace high fidelity computer models with cheap-to-evaluate surrogate models, which facilitate UQ and SA tasks (e.g. variance decomposition, uncertainty propagation, etc.). GMDH performance is validated through two UQ applications in reactor simulations: (1) low dimensional input space (two-phase flow in a reactor channel), and (2) high dimensional space (8-group homogenized cross-sections). In both applications, GMDH networks show very good performance with small mean absolute and squared errors as well as high accuracy in capturing the target variance. GMDH is utilized afterward to perform UQ tasks such as variance decomposition through Sobol indices, and GMDH-based uncertainty propagation with large number of samples. GMDH performance is also compared to other surrogates including Gaussian processes and polynomial chaos expansions. The comparison shows that GMDH has competitive performance with the other methods for the low dimensional problem, and reliable performance for the high dimensional problem.