• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertainty analysis

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The Analysis and Migration of Bisphenol A Related Compounds from Metal Food Cans (식품용 금속 캔으로부터 비스페놀 A 관련 물질들의 분석 및 이행 연구)

  • Park, Se-Jong;Park, So-Ra;Choi, Jae Chun;Kim, MeeKyung
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.329-335
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    • 2017
  • Analysis method was presented for the simultaneous determination of nine bisphenol A related compounds such as bisphenol A (BPA), phenol, p-tert-butylphenol, bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE), $BADGE{\cdot}2H_2O$, $BADGE{\cdot}2HCl$, bisphenol F diglycidyl ether (BFDGE), $BFDGE{\cdot}2H_2O$ and $BFDGE{\cdot}2HCl$ migrated from inner coatings of metal food cans by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with fluorescence detection. The method was validated by examining the linearity of calibration curve, the limit of detection (LOD), the limit of quantification (LOQ), recovery and uncertainty. The migration tests of nine BPA related compounds were carried out with four food simulants; deionized water (DW), 4% acetic acid, 50% ethanol and n-heptane. There was not any compound detected in DW, 4% acetic acid and 50% ethanol at $60^{\circ}C$ for 30 min and n-heptane at $25^{\circ}C$ for 60 min. BPA and phenol were migrated into 4% acetic acid and 50% ethanol at $95^{\circ}C$ for 30 min. The concentrations were ranged from 0 to $10.77{\mu}g/L$ of BPA and from 0 to $2.35{\mu}g/L$ of phenol. Canned foodstuffs mostly have long-term shelf life. We investigated migration of nine BPA related compounds according to the variation in storage periods (0~90 days) and temperatures (4, 25 and $60^{\circ}C$). All compounds were not founded during 90 days at $4^{\circ}C$ and $25^{\circ}C$, respectively. However BPA and $BADGE{\cdot}2H_2O$ were founded in DW and 4% acetic acid at $60^{\circ}C$. The migration levels of BPA and $BADGE{\cdot}2H_2O$ were close to the value of LOQ, respectively and did not change significantly as storage period. It was founded from results that the migration of BPA related compounds from metal food cans was controlled to a safe level.

CO2 Exchange in Kwangneung Broadleaf Deciduous Forest in a Hilly Terrain in the Summer of 2002 (2002년 여름철 경사진 광릉 낙엽 활엽수림에서의 이산화탄소 교환)

  • Choi, Tae-jin;Kim, Joon;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.70-80
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    • 2003
  • We report the first direct measurement of $CO_2$ flux over Kwangneung broadleaf deciduous forest, one of the tower flux sites in KoFlux network. Eddy covariance system was installed on a 30 m tower along with other meteorological instruments from June to August in 2002. Although the study site was non-ideal (with valley-like terrain), turbulence characteristics from limited wind directions (i.e., 90$\pm$45$^{\circ}$) was not significantly different from those obtained at simple, homogeneous terrains with an ideal fetch. Despite very low rate of data retrieval, preliminary results from our analysis are encouraging and worthy of further investigation. Ignoring the role of advection terms, the averaged net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of $CO_2$ ranged from -1.2 to 0.7 mg m$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ from June to August in 2002. The effect of weak turbulence on nocturnal NEE was examined in terms of friction velocity (u*) along with the estimation of storage term. The effect of low uf u* NEE was obvious with a threshold value of about 0.2 m s$^{-1}$ . The contribution of storage term to nocturnal NEE was insignificant; suggesting that the $CO_2$ stored within the forest canopy at night was probably removed by the drainage flow along the hilly terrain. This could be also an artifact of uncertainty in calculations of storage term based on a single-level concentration. The hyperbolic light response curves explained >80% of variation in the observed NEE, indicating that $CO_2$ exchange at the site was notably light-dependent. Such a relationship can be used effectively in filling up the missing gaps in NEE data through the season. Finally, a simple scaling analysis based on a linear flow model suggested that advection might play a significant role in NEE evaluation at this site.

Estimate on the Crustal Thickness from Using Multi-geophysical Data Sets and Its Comparison to Heat Flow Distribution of Korean Peninsula (다양한 지구물리 자료를 통해 얻은 한반도의 지각두께 예측과 지열류량과의 비교)

  • Choi, Soon-Young;Kim, Hyung-Rae;Kim, Chang-Hwan;Park, Chan-Hong;Suh, Man-Chul
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.493-502
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    • 2011
  • We study the deep structure of Korean Peninsula by estimating Moho depth and crustal thickness from using land and oceanic topography and free-air gravity anomaly data. Based on Airy-Heiskanen isostatic hypothesis, the correlated components between the terrain gravity effects and free-air gravity anomalies by wavenumber correlation analysis(WCA) are extracted to estimate the gravity effects that will be resulted from isostatic compensation for the area. With the resulting compensated gravity estimates, Moho depth that is a subsurface between the crust and mantle is estimated by the inversion in an iterative method with the constraints of 20 seismic depth estimates by the receiver function analysis, to minimize the uncertainty of non-uniqueness. Consequently, the average of the resulting crustal thickness estimate of Korean Peninsula is 32.15 km and the standard deviation is 3.12 km. Moho depth of South Korea estimated from this study is compared with the ones from the previous studies, showing they are approximately consistent. And the aspects of Moho undulation from the respective study are in common deep along Taebaek Mountains and Sobaek Mountains and low depth in Gyeongsang Basin relatively. Also, it is discussed that the terrain decorrelated free-air gravity anomalies inferring from the intracrustal characteristics of the crust are compared to the heat flow distributions of South Korea. The low-frequency components of terrain decorrelated Free-air gravity anomalies are highly correlated with the heat flow data, especially in the area of Gyeongsang basin where high heat flow causes to decrease the density of the rocks in the lower crust resulting in lowering the Moho depth by compensation. This result confirms that the high heat sources in this area coming from the upper mantle by Kim et al. (2008).

Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Researches Related to Health in South Korea (한국의 건강 분야 기후변화적응 연구동향 분석)

  • Ha, Jongsik
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 2014
  • It is increasingly supported by scientific evidence that greenhouse gas caused by human activities is changing the global climate. In particular, the changing climate has affected human health, directly or indirectly, and its adverse impacts are estimated to increase in the future. In response, many countries have established and implemented a variety of mitigation and adaptation measures. However, it is significant to note that climate change will continue over the next few centuries and its impacts on human health should be tackled urgently. The purpose of this paper is to examine domestic policies and research in health sector in adaptation to climate change. It further aims to recommend future research directions for enhanced response to climate change in public health sector, by reviewing a series of adaptation policies in the selected countries and taking into account the general features of health adaptation policies. In this regard, this study first evaluates the current adaptation policies in public health sector by examining the National Climate Change Adaptation Master Plan(2011~2015) and Comprehensive Plan for Environment and Health(2011~2020) and reviewing research to date of the government and relevant institutions. For the literature review, two information service systems are used: namely, the National Science and Technology Information Service(NTIS) and the Policy Research Information Service & Management(PRISM). Secondly, a series of foreign adaptation policies are selected based on the global research priorities set by WHO (2009) and reviewed in order to draw implications for domestic research. Finally, the barriers or constraints in establishing and implementing health adaptation policies are analyzed qualitatively, considering the general characteristics of adaptation in the health sector to climate change, which include uncertainty, finance, technology, institutions, and public awareness. This study provides four major recommendations: to mainstream health sector in the field of adaptation policy and research; to integrate cross-sectoral adaptation measures with an aim to the improvement of health and well-being of the society; to enhance the adaptation measures based on evidence and cost-effectiveness analysis; and to facilitate systemization in health adaptation through setting the key players and the agenda.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

International Research Trends Related to Inquiry in Science Education: Perception and Perspective on Inquiry, Support and Strategy for Inquiry, and Teacher Professional Development for Inquiry (과학교육에서 탐구 관련 국외 연구 동향 -탐구의 인식과 관점, 전략과 지원, 교사 전문성의 관점에서-)

  • Yu, Eun-Jeong;Byun, Taejin;Baek, Jongho;Shim, Hyeon-Pyo;Ryu, Kumbok;Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2021
  • Inquiry occupies an important place in science education, and research related to inquiry is widely conducted. However, due to the inclusiveness of the concept of "exploration," each researcher perceives its meaning differently, and approaches may vary. In addition, criticisms have been raised that the results of classes using inquiry in science education do not guarantee meaningful changes to students. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the trend of SSCI-level research papers dealing with inquiry in science education over the past three years to confirm the current status and effectiveness of the inquiry. Researches used in the analysis are International Journal of Science Education, Journal of Research in Science Teaching, Research in Science Education, and Science Education, and limited to those that directly suggest "inquiry (enquiry)" as a keyword. Based on extracted 75 papers, the classification process was conducted, and an analysis frame was derived inductively by reflecting the subject and characteristics. Specific cases for each category were presented by dividing into three aspects: perception and perspective on inquiry, support and strategy for inquiry, and teacher professional development for inquiry. The results of examining the implications for scientific inquiry are as follows: First, rather than defining inquiry as an implicit proposition or presenting it as a step-by-step procedure, it was induced to grasp the meaning of inquiry more comprehensively and holistically. Second, as to whether the inquiry-based instruction is effective in all aspects of the cognitive, functional, and affective domains of science, the limitations are clearly presented, and the context-dependent and subject-specific properties and limitations of inquiry are emphasized. Third, uncertainty in science inquiry-based instruction can help learners to begin their inquiry and develop interest, but in the process of recognizing data and restructuring knowledge, explicit and specific guidance and scaffolding should be provided at an appropriate timing.

Investigation of the Effect of Calculation Method of Offset Correction Factor on the GEMS Sulfur Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm (GEMS 이산화황 산출 현업 알고리즘에서 오프셋 보정 계수 산정 방법에 대한 영향 조사)

  • Park, Jeonghyeon;Yang, Jiwon;Choi, Wonei;Kim, Serin;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2022
  • In this present study, we investigated the effect of the offset correction factor calculation method on the sulfur dioxide (SO2) column density in the SO2 retrieval algorithm of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020. The GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm is the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Hybrid algorithm. In the GEMS Hybrid algorithm, the offset correction process is essential to correct the absorption effect of ozone appearing in the SO2 slant column density (SCD) obtained after spectral fitting using DOAS. Since the SO2 column density may depend on the conditions for calculating the offset correction factor, it is necessary to apply an appropriate offset correction value. In this present study, the offset correction values were calculated for days with many cloud pixels and few cloud pixels, respectively. And a comparison of the SO2 column density retrieved by applying each offset correction factor to the GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm was performed. When the offset correction value was calculated using radiance data of GEMS on a day with many cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density around India and the Korean Peninsula, which are the edges of the GEMS observation area, was 1.27 DU, and 0.58 DU, respectively. And around Hong Kong, where there were many cloud pixels, the SO2 standard deviation was 0.77 DU. On the other hand, when the offset correction value calculated using the GEMS data on the day with few cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density slightly decreased around India (0.72 DU), Korean Peninsula (0.38 DU), and Hong Kong (0.44 DU). We found that the SO2 retrieval was relatively stable compared to the SO2 retrieval case using the offset correction value on the day with many cloud pixels. Accordingly, to minimize the uncertainty of the GEMS SO2 retrieval algorithm and to obtain a stable retrieval, it is necessary to calculate the offset correction factor under appropriate conditions.

Analysis of the Long-Range Transport Contribution to PM10 in Korea Based on the Variations of Anthropogenic Emissions in East Asia using WRF-Chem (WRF-Chem 모델을 활용한 동아시아의 인위적 배출량 변동에 따른 한국 미세 먼지 장거리 수송 기여도 분석)

  • Lee, Hyae-Jin;Cho, Jae-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.283-302
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    • 2022
  • Despite the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in China since January 23, 2020, haze days with high PM10 levels of 88-98 ㎍ m-3 occurred on February 1 and 2, 2020. During these haze days, the East Asian region was affected by a warm and stagnant air mass with positive air temperature anomalies and negative zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to analyze the variation of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea due to decreased anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. The base experiment (BASE), which applies the basic anthropogenic emissions in the WRF-Chem model, and the control experiment (CTL) applied by reducing the anthropogenic emission to 50%, were used to assess uncertainty with ground-based PM10 measurements in Korea. The index of agreement (IOA) for the CTL simulation was 0.71, which was higher than that of BASE (0.67). A statistical analysis of the results suggests that anthropogenic emissions were reduced during the COVID-19 lockdown period in China. Furthermore, BASE and CTL applied to zero-out anthropogenic emissions outside Korea (BASE_ZEOK and CTL_ZEOK) were used to analyze the variations of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea. Regional PM10 transport in CTL was reduced by only 10-20% compared to BASE. Synthetic weather variables may be another reason for the non-linear response to changes in the contribution of regional transport to PM10 in Korea with the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. Although the regional transport contribution of other inorganic aerosols was high in CTL (80-90%), sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols showed lower contributions of 0-20%, 30-60%, and 30-60%, respectively. The SNA secondary aerosols, particularly nitrates, presumably declined as the Chinese lockdown induced traffic.

Validation of GOCI-II Products in an Inner Bay through Synchronous Usage of UAV and Ship-based Measurements (드론과 선박을 동시 활용한 내만에서의 GOCI-II 산출물 검증)

  • Baek, Seungil;Koh, Sooyoon;Lim, Taehong;Jeon, Gi-Seong;Do, Youngju;Jeong, Yujin;Park, Sohyeon;Lee, Yongtak;Kim, Wonkook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_1
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    • pp.609-625
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    • 2022
  • Validation of satellite data products is critical for subsequent analysis that is based on the data. Particularly, performance of ocean color products in turbid and shallow near-land ocean areas has been questioned for long time for its difficulty that stems from the complex optical environment with varying distribution of water constituents. Furthermore, validation with ship-based or station-based measurements has also exhibited clear limitation in its spatial scale that is not compatible with that of satellite data. This study firstly performed validation of major GOCI-II products such as remote sensing reflectance, chlorophyll-a concentration, suspended particulate matter, and colored dissolved organic matter, using the in-situ measurements collected from ship-based field campaign. Secondly, this study also presents preliminary analysis on the use of drone images for product validation. Multispectral images were acquired from a MicaSense RedEdge camera onboard a UAV to compensate for the significant scale difference between the ship-based measurements and the satellite data. Variation of water radiance in terms of camera altitude was analyzed for future application of drone images for validation. Validation conducted with a limited number of samples showed that GOCI-II remote sensing reflectance at 555 nm is overestimated more than 30%, and chlorophyll-a and colored dissolved organic matter products exhibited little correlation with in-situ measurements. Suspended particulate matter showed moderate correlation with in-situ measurements (R2~0.6), with approximately 20% uncertainty.

A Study on the Effect of Organizational Trust of the Container Terminal Operators' Employee on Organizational Citizenship Behavior -Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Organizational Support- (컨테이너터미널 운영사 구성원의 조직신뢰가 조직시민행동에 미치는 영향 -조직적 후원의 조절효과를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ik-Seong;Seon, Hwa;Kim, Hyun-Deok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.65-100
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the effects of organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee on organizational citizenship behavior and the moderating effect of organizational support in the relationship between the two variables. In order to efficiently achieve the purpose of this study, an empirical analysis was conducted by distributing a literature review and a questionnaire, and the results of the study are as follows... First, the organizational trust of the container terminal operators' employee was found to have a significant positive (+) effect on organizational citizenship behavior, and trust in the company appeared to be more important than trust in the superior, indicating trust in the institutional aspect. This means that formation has more influence on organizational citizenship behavior... Second, it was confirmed that the organizational support of the container terminal operators' employee can lead to active participation in organizational citizenship behavior through the expansion of educational compensatory support. Third, among the organizational support of container terminal operators, emotional support and educational compensatory support were found to have a partial moderating effect on the relationship between organizational trust and organizational citizenship behavior." Emotional support has a moderating effect on caring and active participation behaviors in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behaviors, and a moderating effect on caring, active participation, and non-complaining behaviors in the relationship between trust in superiors and organizational citizenship behaviors. It was analyzed that there is Compensatory educational support has a moderating effect on altruistic, caring, active participation, and non-complaining behavior in the relationship between trust in the company and organizational citizenship behavior. It was analyzed that there was a moderating effect on active participation and non-complaining behavior. These analysis results mean that members' trust in the company further increases through the container terminal operator's emotional support and educational reward support. As uncertainty grows, it is very important to increase the trust of organizational members in the organization. sense of belonging to the organization, Emotional support that can increase immersion, improvement of work environment, provision of educational opportunities, and education-compensatory support such as a fair compensation system will increase organizational trust and induce effective organizational citizenship behavior to realize sustainable growth of the organization.